SANDISK DOWN 10%, SPACEX SHARES UNLOCK, OSCAR CELSIUS EARNINGS, OIL UP | MARKET OPEN
SANDISK DOWN 10%, SPACEX SHARES UNLOCK, OSCAR CELSIUS EARNINGS, OIL UP | MARKET OPEN
20 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 27 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should treat the recent 10% pullback in SanDisk (SAND) and the sympathy drop in Micron Technology (MU) as multi-year buying opportunities for the AI memory trade. Patient investors can also view the recent Oscar Health (OSAR) sell-off as an attractive entry point following its massive earnings beat and doubled operating income guidance of $700 million for fiscal year 2026. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) presents a strong long-term accumulation opportunity as broader tech weakness offers a discount on its scaling cloud infrastructure and new GLP-1 weight loss drug delivery catalysts. Conversely, avoid consumer beverages like Celsius Holdings (CELH) until proven growth acceleration returns, as capital rotates heavily toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Finally, existing long-term holders of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) should consider selling out-of-the-money covered calls to hedge against near-term macro volatility while maintaining their core positions.

Detailed Analysis

SanDisk (SAND)

  • Reported Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, beating expectations with 300% year-over-year growth and 51% quarter-over-quarter growth
  • Delivered an EPS of $39.25 versus expectations of $34.45, beating by $5
  • Gross margins came in at 84.6%, above estimates of 81%
  • Stock dropped roughly 10% following the report because September quarter revenue guidance was modestly below Wall Street expectations
  • Analysts noted that memory stocks are currently experiencing heavy volatility and institutional sentiment is acting against them due to fears of future oversupply or peak pricing
  • Jane Street disclosed a 5% ownership stake in SanDisk, and Citadel holds a large position following a recent high-profile market liquidation

Takeaways

  • Despite beating on revenue, EPS, and margins, the stock was punished due to cautious guidance, highlighting that high-beta tech stocks require massive, flawless beats to sustain momentum
  • Investors should be prepared for extreme volatility; short-term sell-offs on solid earnings can present buying opportunities for those with a multi-year horizon on the AI memory trade

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Traded lower in sympathy with SanDisk's sell-off, dropping around 4% to 5% during the session
  • Focuses more on DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) rather than just flash memory, making it a different player in the semi stack
  • Suffers from the same short-term sentiment swings and range-bound trading as the broader memory sector

Takeaways

  • Pullbacks driven purely by sector sympathy rather than company-specific bad news can be viewed as dip-buying opportunities for patient investors who believe in long-term AI memory demand

Celsius Holdings (CELH)

  • Reported a difficult quarter, missing revenue expectations significantly with $817 million coming in below the street's $870 million target
  • Grew 11% year-over-year, which management and the market deemed insufficient for the company's valuation
  • EPS dropped 23% year-over-year, adjusted EBIT dropped 12%, and gross margins fell 340 basis points
  • Conducted a large debt/share offering of around $12 billion (proxy supplier context included), pushing the stock down roughly 14%
  • CEO commented on trying to return the brand to "sustainable growth," which alarmed investors looking for hyper-growth

Takeaways

  • Slowing growth metrics and margin compression in consumer goods face a harsh penalty when capital is rotating toward high-growth artificial intelligence infrastructure
  • Investors should look for proven, sustainable growth acceleration before re-entering consumer beverage plays like Celsius

Oscar Health (OSAR)

  • Delivered phenomenal earnings with revenue at $4.9 billion versus expectations of $4.7 billion and EPS at $1.10 versus $0.39
  • Raised fiscal year 2026 operating income guidance to $700 million, doubling previous expectations and beating the top end of its previous range
  • The CEO previously bought $12 million worth of stock at $1,192 back in April, signaling strong insider confidence
  • Despite the massive beat and raised guidance, the stock experienced a volatile pullback alongside broader market and SaaS sector liquidations

Takeaways

  • Massive fundamental beats paired with aggressive guidance raises that get sold off due to macro sentiment can represent attractive entry points for long-term investors
  • Policy risks surrounding Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies remain a minor headline risk to monitor

Duolingo (DUOL)

  • Reported revenue up 18% year-over-year at $298 million (slightly missing expectations), while daily active users were up 23%
  • EPS fell 27% year-over-year and free cash flow dropped 9% year-over-year, with bookings coming in slightly light at $307 million
  • Failed to sustain an initial post-earnings pop, continuing a downward trend from previous highs near $580

Takeaways

  • Investors question whether Duolingo's language-learning moat can withstand rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and cheaper open-source language models
  • High-valuation software requires flawless execution and strong forward bookings to avoid being heavily discounted by institutional sellers

Figma (FIG)

  • Reported strong revenue growth of $48%, but the stock still faced a steep double-digit percentage decline following its earnings report
  • Wall Street expressed concern regarding future guidance and high stock-based compensation relative to peers

Takeaways

  • The market remains hyper-focused on forward guidance rather than past growth metrics, punishing software companies that do not raise expectations aggressively
  • Investors should monitor stock-based compensation closely as a potential red flag in high-growth software investments

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  • Highlighted by strong enterprise adoption, including a newly announced multi-phase implementation with Shark Ninja for promotions and optimization management
  • Continues to show massive operating leverage and strong execution, standing out as a rare software company that consistently satisfies high institutional expectations

Takeaways

  • Execution and clear, multi-phase enterprise adoption validate Palantir's long-term enterprise software moat
  • For existing long-term holders, massive run-ups can be managed by selling out-of-the-money covered calls to hedge against near-term macro volatility without dumping core shares

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB)

  • Experienced strong intraday momentum and volume, touching key technical resistance around the $80 level
  • Benefited from positive sentiment in the aerospace and space infrastructure sector, alongside recent launch successes and contracts

Takeaways

  • Space infrastructure and launch providers are seeing high retail and institutional interest as high-beta plays
  • Technical resistance levels like $80 are heavily contested by short-term traders, meaning breakouts require sustained volume to hold gains

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Announced plans through Amazon Pharmacy to offer GLP-1 weight loss drugs to eligible Medicare Part D patients
  • Core cloud infrastructure (AWS) continues to scale alongside rising enterprise demand

Takeaways

  • Expansion into healthcare services like GLP-1 distribution adds a strong catalyst to Amazon's already robust retail and cloud ecosystem
  • Pullbacks driven by broader tech sector weakness offer strong long-term accumulation opportunities
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ 00:00 - Intro 08:00 - SNDK and earnings 23:00 - Iran 44:00 - Market Open 1:19:00 - Memory 1:53:50 - Jose 2:18:00 - SPCX
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!