ROCKETLAB, COREWEAVE, ASTS, RIGGETI, BIG BEAR AI + MORE EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
ROCKETLAB, COREWEAVE, ASTS, RIGGETI, BIG BEAR AI + MORE EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
179 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Rocket Lab (RKLB) is a compelling growth opportunity following a significant earnings beat and strong guidance that signals a clear path to profitability. The bull case for NVIDIA (NVDA) is reinforced by its customer CoreWeave's massive $55 billion backlog, confirming insatiable demand for AI chips. Opendoor (OPEN) presents a

Detailed Analysis

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • The company reported very strong earnings, which the host described as an "amazing quarter."
  • Double Beat: Rocket Lab beat expectations on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue.
    • EPS: Reported a loss of only $0.03 per share, a 70% beat compared to the expected loss of $0.10. This signals the company is getting very close to profitability.
    • Revenue: Came in at $155 million, beating the $151 million expectation. This represents 48% growth year-over-year.
  • Strong Guidance: The company guided for $180 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, indicating continued growth.
  • Neutron Rocket Update: A timeline was provided for their next-generation Neutron rocket, which is scheduled to arrive at the launch complex in Q1 2026.
  • Market Reaction: The stock reacted very positively to the news, jumping as much as 9% in after-hours trading.

Takeaways

  • Path to Profitability: The significant earnings beat shows Rocket Lab is executing well and is on a clear path to becoming profitable, potentially within the next couple of quarters. This is a major positive for investors.
  • Growth Story Intact: Strong revenue growth and optimistic guidance suggest the core business is healthy and expanding.
  • Long-Term Catalyst: The updated timeline for the Neutron rocket provides more clarity on a key future growth driver for the company. The positive earnings report could provide momentum for the stock.

CoreWeave (CW)

  • The company, a specialized cloud provider for AI, reported strong earnings results.
  • Strong Earnings Beat:
    • EPS: Beat expectations by 57%, reporting a loss of $0.22 per share versus an expected loss of $0.51.
    • Revenue: Beat expectations with $1.36 billion versus $1.29 billion expected.
  • Massive Demand: The company's revenue backlog (future contracted revenue) almost doubled in a single quarter to over $55 billion. The host noted this shows "insatiable customer demand."
  • Execution Issues: Management mentioned that temporary delays from a third-party data center provider will negatively impact fourth-quarter results.
  • Increasing Debt: The CFO stated that the company will continue to take on more debt to finance its expansion and meet the high demand.
  • Market Reaction: Despite the strong numbers, the stock fell over 5% after hours. The host described the earnings call as feeling "defensive."

Takeaways

  • Bullish on AI Demand: The explosive growth in CoreWeave's backlog is a powerful indicator of the massive, ongoing demand for AI computing power. This is a positive sign for the entire AI sector, including chipmakers like NVIDIA.
  • Investor Caution: The negative stock reaction highlights two key risks for investors:
    1. Execution Risk: Delays in building data centers can hurt near-term revenue.
    2. Financial Risk: The market appears nervous about the large amount of debt the company is taking on to fund its growth.
  • While the long-term demand story is strong, investors are currently focused on the near-term operational and financial risks.

Big Bear AI (BBAI)

  • The AI software company reported mixed earnings results.
  • Earnings Beat: The company beat analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue.
    • EPS: Reported a loss of $0.03 per share, better than the expected loss of $0.07.
    • Revenue: Came in at $33 million, ahead of the $31 million expected.
  • Declining Growth: Despite beating estimates, revenue was down 20% compared to the same quarter last year.
  • Major Acquisition: Big Bear AI announced it is acquiring AskSage, a generative AI platform for defense and national security, for $250 million. This is 10 times AskSage's projected 2025 revenue, which is considered an aggressive price.
  • Market Reaction: The market reacted very positively, with the stock jumping over 15% after hours.

Takeaways

  • Focus on the Beat: Investors chose to focus on the fact that BBAI beat near-term expectations, rather than the concerning 20% year-over-year decline in revenue.
  • Growth Through Acquisition: The expensive acquisition of AskSage is a bold move to pivot towards growth in the government and defense sectors. Investors are betting that this acquisition will pay off and re-accelerate revenue growth.
  • High-Risk, High-Reward: The stock's big move reflects optimism, but the combination of declining organic revenue and a pricey acquisition makes this a higher-risk investment. Success will depend on integrating AskSage and winning the government contracts they are targeting.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir was discussed as a key, but controversial, name in the AI trade.
  • High Valuation Debate: The main topic was its high stock price. Prominent investor Tom Lee defended the valuation, comparing Palantir to Tesla (TSLA) in 2018.
  • "N of One" Company: Tom Lee described Palantir as a unique, "N of one" company whose products "seem like magic," suggesting that traditional valuation models may not apply.
  • Bearish Bet: It was noted that famous investor Michael Burry (of "The Big Short" fame) has a large bearish position against Palantir, betting that its stock price will fall.

Takeaways

  • Polarizing Investment: Palantir is a "love it or hate it" stock. The bull case is that it's a revolutionary, one-of-a-kind AI company with massive long-term potential, justifying its high price.
  • Bear Case: The bear case is that the stock is in a bubble and significantly overvalued relative to its current earnings and growth.
  • Investors should recognize that owning Palantir is a bet on its unique technology and future growth justifying its premium valuation, while being aware that prominent investors see significant downside risk.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was discussed as a central player in the AI boom.
  • Valuation Is Not a "Bubble": Tom Lee argued that NVIDIA's valuation is not in bubble territory, noting it trades at 29 times forward earnings, which he claims is "cheaper than Costco."
  • Massive Demand Signal: CoreWeave's report of a $55 billion revenue backlog and plans for massive expansion was described as "super bullish" for NVIDIA, as CoreWeave is a major buyer of its GPUs.
  • Michael Burry's Warning: It was mentioned that Michael Burry has a large bearish bet against NVIDIA and has publicly accused the company of using accounting tricks to overstate its earnings.

Takeaways

  • Strong Fundamental Demand: The demand for NVIDIA's AI chips remains incredibly strong, as confirmed by the reports from its major customers like CoreWeave. This is the core of the bull thesis.
  • Valuation Perspective: While the stock price has soared, some analysts believe its valuation is reasonable when considering its massive growth prospects.
  • Key Risk Factor: The bearish stance from a well-known investor like Michael Burry, including accusations of accounting irregularities, is a risk factor that investors should not ignore.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

  • The satellite-to-cell phone company reported earnings.
  • Earnings Miss: The company missed analyst expectations on both revenue and EPS.
  • Key Milestones:
    • The company reported $14 million in revenue, a significant development as it begins to commercialize its service.
    • ASTS announced it has secured over $1 billion in future aggregate contract and revenue commitments from partners.
  • Market Reaction: The stock was volatile but ended the after-hours session mostly flat, suggesting the market is looking past the miss.

Takeaways

  • Transition to Commercialization: The most important takeaway is that ASTS is now generating revenue and has secured significant future commitments. This marks a crucial transition from a purely developmental company to a commercial one.
  • Future-Focused Investment: The market's muted reaction to the earnings miss indicates that investors are more focused on the long-term potential represented by the $1 billion in commitments, rather than the current financials.
  • This remains a speculative, long-term investment, but these milestones are positive steps in de-risking the company's business plan.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Rigetti (RGTI): The quantum computing company had an "ugly miss" on earnings, with EPS missing estimates by over 900%. The stock only fell slightly, which was surprising given the terrible results. This could be a negative sign for the broader quantum sector.
  • Terawolf (WULF): This former Bitcoin miner, now pivoting to AI infrastructure, had a "ridiculous" EPS miss of over 2,000%. In a sign of strong market sentiment, the stock recovered from its initial drop and even turned positive.
  • Opendoor (OPEN): The stock had a "massive day," surging after a JP Morgan upgrade to an $8 price target. The CEO also publicly tweeted that his family would be buying $1 million of stock, a strong insider signal.
  • Plug Power (PLUG): The hydrogen fuel cell company reported a "double beat" on both revenue and EPS, causing the stock to rise over 6% after hours before giving back some gains.
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): The Bitcoin miner's stock was "smashed," falling after announcing a $1 billion convertible note offering. This type of capital raise dilutes existing shareholders and is often met with a negative stock reaction.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Headlines 07:00 - Tom Lee 15:00 - Market Close and Earnings 1:16:00 - CoreWeave call
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!