ROBINHOOD Q3 2026 EARNINGS LIVE + VISA, SEAGATE, ENPHASE, CHEESCAKE FACTORY | MARKET CLOSE
ROBINHOOD Q3 2026 EARNINGS LIVE + VISA, SEAGATE, ENPHASE, CHEESCAKE FACTORY | MARKET CLOSE
12 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 7 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider HOOD as a high-growth, cyclical investment after its post-earnings decline; track deposits, Gold adoption, and growth in prediction markets, while recognizing that weaker trading and crypto activity could pressure results.
  • STX and TER delivered strong results and guidance, with long-term support from storage and AI-testing demand, but both fell after earnings; avoid chasing after large prior gains and weigh valuation carefully.
  • Avoid treating ENPH as a near-term recovery trade: it missed on revenue, EPS, and guidance, and the proposed AI-power tailwind has not yet translated into meaningful results.
Detailed Analysis

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Q3 revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year over year and slightly below expectations. EPS was $0.51, below the roughly $0.55–$0.56 expected; a $67 million mark-to-market loss on investments reduced reported EPS by about $0.07. Adjusted EPS was $0.60, and adjusted EBITDA of $808 million beat expectations.
  • The quarter showed a mix of weaker activity and continued product growth:
    • Crypto trading volume was down substantially from a year earlier, reflecting difficult comparisons and a softer crypto market.
    • Event-contract revenue grew about 7x year over year to roughly $173 million, making it a significant revenue source.
    • The company reported records in equities, options, and margin, with several activity measures up around 50% year over year. Management also said market share increased across major asset classes.
    • Robinhood Gold reached 5 million subscribers, and the Gold Card had 1.3 million users and $1.8 billion in balances.
  • Management said October net deposits topped $13 billion, including a $6 billion contribution to Trump accounts from the Dell family. Year-to-date net deposits exceeded $68 billion, surpassing the company’s stated 20% growth goal.
  • Longer-term growth initiatives discussed included banking, peer-to-peer payments, agentic trading, prediction markets, perpetual futures, international expansion, and tokenized assets. Robinhood Chain reported more than $100 billion of decentralized-exchange volume and over $50 million of fees in its first quarter.
  • The panel viewed the quarter as mixed rather than thesis-breaking: the business continued to add products and market share, but near-term results remain sensitive to trading activity and market conditions. The stock fell after the report.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports viewing HOOD as a high-growth but cyclical business, not as a steady-growth financial company. Crypto prices, trading volumes, market volatility, and spreads can materially affect results.
  • For a long-term investor, monitor whether newer businesses—especially banking, Gold, prediction markets, and international operations—grow enough to reduce reliance on trading activity.
  • Key risks mentioned included weaker market activity, hard year-over-year comparisons, tighter spreads, competition in prediction markets, and regulatory uncertainty around tokenization. The call also disclosed a $67 million investment markdown.
  • The panel cited an analyst average price of about $139, but did not present it as its own price target or make a specific buy/sell recommendation.

Seagate Technology (STX)

  • Seagate reported a double beat: revenue was $4.23 billion versus about $4.15 billion expected, and EPS was $7.68 versus about $7.43 expected. Its next-quarter earnings guidance was also above expectations.
  • Revenue was up roughly 60% year over year and EPS about 194%. Management cited record profitability and free cash flow, stronger storage demand, and a multi-year growth opportunity supported by data creation and reuse.
  • The stock fell after earnings despite the results. The discussion noted that it had already risen roughly 130%–140% year to date, raising the possibility of a sell-the-news reaction.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bullish on long-term storage demand, particularly as data-center and AI workloads increase the need for storage.
  • Strong results did not prevent a post-earnings decline. The panel’s stated concern was that a large prior share-price gain may have left high expectations; valuation and expectations can matter as much as a beat.

Enphase Energy (ENPH)

  • Enphase missed on revenue, EPS, and guidance. Revenue was about $293 million versus roughly $304 million expected; EPS was $0.41 versus $0.51 expected; and guidance was below expectations.
  • The stock fell after the report. The discussion described a long downturn in residential-solar demand and said the company’s efforts to serve data centers had not yet shown up meaningfully in results.
  • A participant said the market might be underestimating Enphase because AI needs more energy and because a more favorable political environment for green energy could help. This was presented as a potential tailwind, not as a confirmed change in demand.

Takeaways

  • The near-term discussion was bearish, given the reported misses and weaker outlook.
  • The possible AI-power and policy tailwinds remain a thesis to monitor; the transcript specifically noted that the data-center opportunity had not yet translated into results. Residential-solar demand and policy direction were identified as risks.

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

  • Cheesecake Factory beat expectations: EPS was about 6% above estimates and revenue about 3% above. Revenue grew roughly 14% year over year, while EPS grew about 50%.
  • The stock initially rose after hours, then was later reported down. The panel noted that the shares had already gained around 100% year to date.

Takeaways

  • The reported operating growth was encouraging, but the discussion did not offer a specific investment recommendation.
  • With the stock already up substantially, investors may want to distinguish the company’s business performance from the market’s expectations for the shares.

Teradyne (TER)

  • Teradyne reported revenue of about $1.3 billion, up roughly 70% year over year, and EPS of $2.29; both exceeded estimates.
  • Management cited demand across AI-related testing, memory, integrated systems, and robotics. The discussion also noted a new product aimed at testing at the package level.
  • The stock fell after hours despite the beat. Participants suggested valuation or market reaction may have been factors, but did not identify a specific negative result.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was constructive on Teradyne’s exposure to AI-related testing demand and its robotics business.
  • The reported results were strong, but the share-price reaction shows that a beat alone may not be sufficient when expectations are high. No specific price target or recommendation was given.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

  • NXP reported EPS of $4.20 versus $4.12 expected and revenue of $3.78 billion versus $3.76 billion expected. EPS was up about 35% year over year and revenue about 19%.
  • Despite the small beats and year-over-year growth, the stock fell roughly 7%–9% after hours.

Takeaways

  • The quarter showed positive year-over-year growth, but the market reaction was negative.
  • The transcript offered no specific company-related risk explanation for the decline, so investors should avoid assuming the move reflected a particular deterioration in NXP’s business.

BigBear.ai (BBAI)

  • BigBear.ai missed EPS expectations: the reported loss was $0.19 per share versus an expected loss of about $0.06. Revenue of $43 million beat the roughly $38 million estimate and was up about 31% year over year.
  • The stock fell after hours. A participant said growth had not been as aggressive as some investors had expected.

Takeaways

  • The results were mixed: revenue growth was positive, but the larger-than-expected loss is a clear concern.
  • The transcript cautioned against treating BigBear.ai as “the next Palantir,” noting that the businesses are not interchangeable.

Visa (V)

  • Visa was identified as an important company to watch for the broader consumer and fintech outlook.
  • The discussion said Visa typically does not move much on earnings. No Visa results or specific investment view were provided in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offered no actionable company-specific conclusion for Visa; it was mentioned as a sector indicator rather than as a recommendation.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

  • SoFi was described as having risen about 13% on earnings-day trading after reporting results and providing fiscal-year 2027 guidance. The panel said that guidance was not widely expected and helped support the share-price move.
  • A comparison of crypto activity noted that SoFi had 500,000 crypto accounts and about $1.6 million in crypto revenue for the quarter, versus Robinhood’s much larger crypto revenue. The speakers used this to argue that Robinhood has stronger native consumer demand for crypto trading.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was positive on SoFi’s earnings-day reaction and forward guidance, but did not provide a detailed company analysis or specific recommendation.
  • The crypto comparison was used to illustrate differences in scale, not to establish that SoFi’s crypto business is unviable.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and Charles Schwab (SCHW)

  • The panel described brokerage activity as potentially facing a harder period across the industry, not just at Robinhood.
  • Interactive Brokers’ stock was said to have fallen after results that were close to expectations. The discussion also cited 67% year-over-year growth in margin revenue at IBKR and noted similar strength at Schwab.

Takeaways

  • The sector discussion was cautious on near-term brokerage conditions, while highlighting margin revenue as an area of strength.
  • The transcript did not make a specific recommendation on either company.

eToro

  • A participant floated eToro as a hypothetical acquisition candidate for Robinhood, citing an estimated 4.3 million funded accounts, more than 40 million registered users, and about $930 million in trailing-12-month revenue.
  • The idea was presented as speculation: the speakers suggested the businesses could fit strategically because both combine investing and crypto services. They discussed a hypothetical purchase price, but no transaction was announced or confirmed.

Takeaways

  • Treat the acquisition idea as speculative, not as evidence that Robinhood is pursuing a deal.
  • The discussion’s broader investment theme was that an acquisition could add customers and products, but it did not assess integration risks or establish a likely price.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP

  • The panel described crypto as an important driver of Robinhood’s revenue and said its weakness contributed to difficult comparisons. Robinhood’s crypto trading volume was discussed as materially lower than a year earlier.
  • Bitcoin was reported to have recovered to around $80,000–$81,000 during the stream after having been below $80,000 the previous day. These were market levels at the time, not price targets.
  • The speakers said a renewed crypto bull market could benefit Robinhood, while warning that a further downturn could weigh on its trading activity and share price.
  • Polymarket was reported to be launching five-minute up-or-down markets tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s view was conditionally bullish on crypto’s potential to support Robinhood, but emphasized that the recovery was not assured.
  • Crypto prices and activity were explicitly identified as important risks for Robinhood. The short-duration prediction products discussed are speculative instruments, not evidence of a long-term investment case for the underlying tokens.

Ripple and stablecoin infrastructure

  • The speakers discussed a Ripple partnership as another potential addition to Robinhood’s financial and crypto ecosystem. They viewed stablecoin infrastructure as becoming more integrated into finance, but said the specific partnership’s short-term revenue impact was unclear.
  • On the earnings call, management described the relationship as complementary, with Ripple’s institutional business and Robinhood’s retail-oriented business potentially supporting integrations and product selection.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was positive on the broader stablecoin and infrastructure theme, but cautious about attributing near-term financial impact to this particular partnership.
  • No specific investment recommendation or revenue forecast for Ripple was given.

Robinhood Chain and tokenized assets

  • Robinhood Chain reported more than $100 billion of decentralized-exchange volume and more than $50 million in chain fees in its first quarter. Management also cited over $1 billion per day in recent on-chain perpetual-futures volume.
  • Management said it intends to prioritize user experience, developer activity, and adoption of tokenized real-world assets, rather than maximizing fees in the short term.
  • The speakers also discussed uncertainty around U.S. rules for tokenized securities and private-company shares.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity described is early-stage and potentially significant, but the transcript provided limited evidence about how much current activity will translate into durable profits.
  • Regulatory uncertainty, developer adoption, and the ability to sustain usage were identified as important factors to watch.

Prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and OG.com

  • Robinhood’s event-contract business grew rapidly and became a meaningful revenue contributor. The panel said Robinhood’s prediction-market volumes were still behind Kalshi’s in the comparison discussed, even as Robinhood’s own business expanded.
  • Management said Robinhood’s Rothera exchange would be its primary venue, with Crypto.com and OG.com serving as an additional venue. Robinhood disclosed an initial 1% equity stake in Crypto.com and OG.com, with the ability to earn up to 10% depending on future partnership activity.
  • Speakers viewed prediction markets as a growth opportunity, particularly for financial and non-sports contracts, while also acknowledging debate around the products and competition.

Takeaways

  • The theme is high growth but competitive: Robinhood has seen strong event-contract revenue, but the discussion questioned whether it is gaining share as quickly as competitors.
  • The transcript specifically raised competition and the broader controversy surrounding prediction markets; it did not provide a specific regulatory forecast.

Other stocks and investment themes mentioned

  • NVIDIA (NVDA), Nebius (NBIS), CoreWeave (CRWV), Cerebras, Dell (DELL), Celestica (CLS), Bloom Energy (BE), Tesla (TSLA), and Rocket Lab (RKLB) were mentioned mainly as examples of high-beta stocks that rebounded during the trading session. The discussion said many such names had recently fallen sharply; no company-specific investment analysis was offered.
  • Western Digital (WDC) and Micron (MU) were cited as memory-sector comparisons: the speakers said the stocks had struggled to gain after strong results, partly because of prior share-price gains and questions about how sustainable unusually strong results might be.
  • Palantir (PLTR) was discussed as a company the speakers own and as a comparison when cautioning against labeling BigBear.ai “the next Palantir.” No new Palantir results or recommendation were given.
  • Oracle (ORCL) was mentioned in connection with a potential partnership involving Cerebras; the transcript did not provide further investment analysis.
  • Trump accounts and SpaceX were discussed as a possible long-term opportunity for Robinhood’s custody and customer relationships. The speakers said SpaceX shares might be distributed through the accounts, but treated that possibility as unconfirmed.
  • Stripe was mentioned as an example of a high private-company valuation and as a potential investment within private markets; the discussion did not recommend buying Stripe shares.
  • The broad AI infrastructure, memory, and energy themes were discussed as potential sources of demand, but speakers also highlighted valuation, market volatility, and the possibility that exceptional growth rates may not persist.

Takeaways

  • The market rebound and AI-related themes were presented as areas of interest, not as specific buy recommendations.
  • Across the discussion, the recurring caution was that strong company results or attractive themes may not lead to share-price gains if expectations and valuations are already high.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!