PCE DATA GOES GREEN, ROBINHOOD EVENT, LAST TRADING DAY FOR SEPTEMBER | MARKET OPEN
PCE DATA GOES GREEN, ROBINHOOD EVENT, LAST TRADING DAY FOR SEPTEMBER | MARKET OPEN
17 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 53 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Micron (MU): Watch the earnings report and management’s outlook for AI-driven memory demand, long-term agreements, and margins; a strong quarter alone may not resolve concerns about cyclicality.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): Track adoption of agentic and 24/7 trading products to see whether they generate sustained activity; Morgan Stanley’s $150 price target is a stated analyst target, not a guarantee.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): The reported $1.2 billion order for AMD Helios AI systems is a concrete catalyst; monitor delivery execution and follow-on orders.
  • Reddit (RDDT): The host preferred Reddit near $150 over Netflix near $69; watch user growth, referral traffic, and monetization as competition increases.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH): Expect sharp volatility—Bitcoin briefly fell about $2,000—and size any exposure accordingly.
Detailed Analysis

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Robinhood’s product event introduced social features, agentic trading, 24/7 trading, perpetual futures, earlier options trading, and more complex order types such as OCO orders.
  • The host viewed the agent marketplace as the most significant announcement: users can connect trading agents within the Robinhood app and subscribe to data services. Potential benefits for Robinhood include more trading volume and possibly a share of subscription revenue.
  • Adoption and effectiveness remain uncertain. The demo was basic, users may need to pay for external AI models, and the host noted that trading is difficult and agents may not provide a lasting edge. Robinhood said agent accounts are sandboxed and trade approvals are on by default.
  • The stock rose about 5% pre-market after the event, but later gave back gains as Bitcoin fell. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and a $150 price target.

Takeaways

  • The investment case discussed centers on Robinhood’s ability to turn new products into sustained customer use, trading activity, and revenue—not simply on the number of announcements.
  • Track adoption of agentic trading and 24/7 products, while recognizing that the stock can also be affected by crypto-market volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)

  • Both cryptocurrencies initially rose after the PCE inflation report. Bitcoin was around $85,400, and Ethereum was around $2,700 in the pre-market.
  • Bitcoin later fell sharply, briefly dropping by roughly $2,000. The transcript did not identify a specific cause for that move.
  • The host linked Bitcoin’s decline to pressure on Robinhood and Coinbase during the session.

Takeaways

  • The discussion showed crypto moving alongside market sentiment and macro news, but also experiencing sharp price swings of its own.
  • Investors considering exposure should account for volatility; the transcript offered no specific crypto price target or recommendation.

U.S. equities and interest rates — S&P 500 (SPY), Treasury bonds (TLT)

  • The S&P 500 initially rose after August PCE inflation came in at 3.4% versus 3.7% expected. The host cautioned that the calculation methodology had changed, which could affect how investors interpret the result.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated, around 5.24%–5.27% during the discussion. A market strategist cited in the episode expected no October rate hike but expected a hike in December.
  • The strategist also said higher yields may reflect economic strength, while warning that rate pressure and geopolitical uncertainty could constrain equities. The host noted that higher yields weigh on risk appetite and make bonds less attractive in the near term.
  • TLT, a long-duration Treasury ETF, was described as having an exceptionally low RSI reading, but the host cautioned that yields could rise further.

Takeaways

  • Treat the PCE report as a potentially positive but not definitive signal: the transcript raised questions about the revised methodology, and rates remained high.
  • Keep an eye on Treasury yields when assessing equity risk, particularly for rate-sensitive stocks and long-duration bonds.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Micron earnings were due after the close. The host and a guest expected strong results, citing rising memory demand from AI and higher DRAM prices. The guest expected a substantial beat, while acknowledging that near-term stock performance was uncertain.
  • The host said the market may already expect approximately $51 billion in revenue and discussed $31 EPS as a level the market might require for a strong response. These were discussed as expectations, not reported results.
  • The central debate was whether Micron can sustain high margins. The episode cited current margins around 85% and discussed whether the company could maintain operating margins near 70%. Long-term agreements with customers may help provide pricing and demand visibility.
  • The host viewed Micron as inexpensive relative to other semiconductor companies but highlighted the risk that the business is cyclical and that future supply, product efficiency, or weaker demand could pressure pricing and margins.
  • The episode cited an average analyst price target of about $1,500, roughly 40% above the share price discussed. This was presented as analyst consensus, not a host-issued target.

Takeaways

  • The key issue is not only whether Micron beats one quarter’s estimates, but whether it can show that AI-related memory demand and strong margins can last.
  • Watch management’s comments on long-term agreements, capital spending, customer demand, and buybacks. The transcript emphasized that even good earnings may not guarantee a higher share price if the market remains concerned about cyclicality.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was described as a central beneficiary of continued AI investment and demand for computing capacity.
  • A report said a new OpenAI model was running on NVIDIA GPUs rather than Cerebras chips. NVIDIA’s response to the report was interpreted by the market as supporting that account, contributing to pressure on Cerebras.
  • NVIDIA was also discussed in connection with concerns that future systems could use less high-bandwidth memory, potentially affecting memory demand. The host noted this as a risk to the broader memory thesis, not as a confirmed demand decline.
  • The episode described NVIDIA’s safety tools for AI agents, including a system to sandbox agents and a separate chip to monitor their activity.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports watching both sides of NVIDIA’s AI position: sustained demand for its chips and the possibility that changing system designs could reduce memory needs.
  • The episode did not provide a specific NVIDIA price target or a new recommendation.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD was among the semiconductor stocks rising during the session. The host cited growing AI-related CPU and GPU needs as potential sources of demand.
  • An HPE order for AMD Helios AI rack systems was reported, supporting the view that AMD’s AI hardware is beginning to reach large deployments.
  • The host also discussed AMD’s acquisition of a company focused on synthetic real-world training data and its potential applications in robotics and autonomous systems.
  • Risks raised included the use of stock for acquisitions and warrants issued to Meta and OpenAI, which could dilute existing shareholders if exercised.

Takeaways

  • Monitor whether AMD’s AI products translate into recurring customer deployments and revenue.
  • Consider the potential trade-off between acquisitions that expand AMD’s capabilities and shareholder dilution.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Dell Technologies (DELL), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

  • HPE reportedly secured a $1.2 billion order for AMD Helios AI rack systems, its first order on the platform.
  • HPE also raised its networking revenue-growth guidance to a high-teens-to-low-20% range for fiscal 2027, with high-teens compound annual growth expected through fiscal 2029.
  • HPE shares rose sharply on the news before giving back some of the gain. Dell and SMCI were mentioned as other server-rack providers that could benefit from AI infrastructure spending, though no specific new orders for them were cited.

Takeaways

  • The HPE announcement is a concrete example of AI investment translating into an equipment order; future orders and delivery execution will matter.
  • The transcript did not identify comparable new contracts for Dell or SMCI, so their mention was a sector comparison rather than a specific catalyst.

Cerebras Systems

  • Cerebras shares fell after a report said an OpenAI model was using NVIDIA GPUs rather than Cerebras chips. NVIDIA’s response was taken by the market as confirmation.
  • The decline coincided with a large share unlock, which could increase the amount of stock available for sale.

Takeaways

  • The episode highlighted customer concentration and proof of actual chip deployment as important considerations for Cerebras.
  • A share unlock can add selling pressure, particularly when paired with negative news about a major customer or product.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta’s AI assistant Muse was described as a potential source of future demand for compute, including GPUs and CPUs. The host cited Meta’s broad distribution through Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp as a competitive advantage.
  • Meta shares rose after the broader AI news, although a product demonstration for its new assistant, Dots, did not go smoothly.
  • The host saw potential in Meta’s ability to expand from advertising into AI services, but emphasized that Muse must work well and Meta must execute to realize that opportunity.

Takeaways

  • Track whether Meta can convert its distribution advantage into sustained AI usage and, eventually, revenue.
  • The product opportunity is promising in the discussion, but remains dependent on execution and user adoption.

OpenAI and Anthropic (private companies)

  • OpenAI was reported to be raising $30 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation. The host said the company appeared to be positioning for a possible public listing, though the transcript did not describe a confirmed IPO.
  • OpenAI’s reported annual recurring revenue of $70 billion was cited as a positive surprise for markets and as support for continued AI investment.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic were discussed in the context of AI safety, cost, product competition, and potential regulation. The host noted an FTC investigation into AI companies, while emphasizing that it was an investigation—not a finding of wrongdoing.

Takeaways

  • These companies are not public stocks, so the transcript’s valuation and funding discussion is not a direct public-market investment opportunity.
  • Their business growth and ability to fund AI development may influence public companies that supply chips, data-center equipment, and related infrastructure.

AI infrastructure and technology stocks — Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), Lumentum (LITE), Credo (CRDO), AAOI, and CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • The host described the AI investment theme as dependent on continued expansion of computing capacity, which could benefit semiconductor, networking, optics, and data-center companies.
  • Lumentum had risen the previous day, but the host noted that optics stocks were not consistently participating in the broader semiconductor rally.
  • CoreWeave announced that NVIDIA Vera Rubin systems were available in production, named new partners, and described a clinical-AI deployment. The host said CoreWeave’s debt remained a concern for investors.
  • The transcript also noted that increased efficiency—such as AI systems requiring less memory—could challenge some infrastructure-demand assumptions.

Takeaways

  • Distinguish between the broad AI theme and company-specific proof of revenue, orders, or customer deployments.
  • For CoreWeave, debt was the explicit risk discussed. For the optics and networking names, the key issue raised was whether demand and share-price momentum can be sustained.

Energy and nuclear power — Vistra (VST), Constellation Energy (CEG), Oklo (OKLO), NuScale Power (SMR), Centrus Energy (LEU)

  • The episode reported that South Korea was expected to invest $200 billion in the United States, including funding for nuclear power plants and an Alaska LNG project. The transcript presented the details as expected announcements, not completed investments.
  • Vistra, Constellation, and Talon Energy initially fell, while Oklo, NuScale, and Centrus later rose. The host argued that new nuclear construction does not necessarily eliminate demand for other energy sources, especially given long construction timelines.
  • The host noted that building nuclear plants can take many years, which limits the immediate effect of new investment on energy supply.

Takeaways

  • The potential investment is a long-term infrastructure theme, not necessarily an immediate earnings catalyst for any one company.
  • Watch for confirmed project details, financing, and company-specific contracts before drawing conclusions about individual stocks.

Oil and gas — Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Venture Global (VG), and XLE

  • Oil was lower than the previous day at points but remained elevated, around $91 per barrel during the session.
  • The host linked lower oil prices to hopes that inflation could ease, while noting that oil remained sensitive to geopolitical developments.
  • The expected South Korean investment in an Alaska LNG project was mentioned, but the transcript did not report a clear share-price reaction for Cheniere or Venture Global.

Takeaways

  • The discussion framed oil as both an inflation input and a volatile market variable. Any investment view should account for geopolitical and supply-related uncertainty explicitly discussed in the episode.
  • No specific price targets or company recommendations were given for the oil and gas names.

Fair Isaac (FICO)

  • FICO was described as facing new competition in credit scoring after raising the price of credit reports from $0.80 to $10.
  • The host said the company had previously benefited from a powerful market position, but that competition and administration policy could alter the outlook.
  • FICO shares were below $600 during the discussion. Higher mortgage rates—reported around 7.2%–7.5%—were also weighing on housing-related businesses.

Takeaways

  • The key risk discussed is whether FICO can preserve its pricing power as new scoring alternatives emerge.
  • Investors should assess competitive pressure and housing-market exposure rather than relying solely on FICO’s historical position.

Cybersecurity stocks — Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), SentinelOne (S), and Zscaler (ZS)

  • Cybersecurity shares rose during the session, and the host noted that AI could increase the need for security products.
  • However, a cybersecurity sales professional quoted in the episode considered the sector’s valuations difficult to justify. CrowdStrike was specifically described as not yet consistently profitable.
  • SentinelOne was mentioned as a possible acquisition target for a larger technology company; this was speculation, not a confirmed deal.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presented a tension between a potentially expanding cybersecurity need and concerns about current valuations.
  • Treat acquisition speculation as uncertain, and focus on company growth, profitability, and valuation.

Reddit (RDDT) and Netflix (NFLX)

  • Reddit rose despite Meta introducing forums that could compete for some user activity. The host said the main market concern was whether search and referral traffic would weaken.
  • The host viewed Reddit’s growth as promising but said the company needs to demonstrate that traffic and monetization can hold up.
  • In a direct comparison at the prices discussed, the host said he would prefer Reddit around $150 to Netflix around $69. This was his stated preference, not a formal price target.

Takeaways

  • For Reddit, watch user growth, traffic sources, and monetization; the transcript treated the competitive risk as real but not yet decisive.
  • The Reddit-versus-Netflix comparison reflects the host’s preference for growth exposure, not a guaranteed outcome.

AppLovin (APP)

  • AppLovin fell below $300 during the session. The host said the investment case depends in part on expanding beyond mobile-game advertising into other markets.

Takeaways

  • Monitor whether AppLovin can demonstrate meaningful growth outside its existing mobile-gaming business.
  • The discussion identified expansion and execution as central to the stock’s next leg, without offering a price target.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Ondas Holdings (ONDS)

  • SoFi was described as having diluted shareholders through past stock offerings, including an offering that the host said conflicted with earlier comments about not needing more capital.
  • Ondas was criticized for rapid share-count growth: the episode cited an increase from roughly 150 million shares in June 2025 to 503 million in June 2026. The host liked the company’s drone-related business but worried that repeated dilution could offset growth.

Takeaways

  • For both companies, assess growth alongside the pace and purpose of share issuance.
  • For Ondas in particular, the host’s concern was whether acquisitions and expansion can eventually produce earnings growth without continued heavy dilution.

Hut 8 (HUT)

  • Hut 8 fell after announcing a $1 billion, four-year revolving credit facility and amid a reported insider stock-sale filing of about $140 million.
  • The host suggested that financing and potential dilution concerns may have contributed to the decline.

Takeaways

  • Review financing terms, share issuance, and insider-sale disclosures when evaluating the stock; these were the specific concerns raised in the episode.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

  • Cisco was described as a broad, established business with networking and cybersecurity operations, but the host questioned whether its valuation after a large run leaves substantial further upside.
  • Akamai was discussed as a potential AI-related beneficiary, but the host said additional customer deals may be needed for the market to recognize the opportunity.

Takeaways

  • For Cisco, the discussion focused on valuation after a strong move; for Akamai, it focused on the need for more evidence of AI-related commercial traction.
  • The host did not provide a specific target or recommendation for either stock.

Additional stocks and themes mentioned

  • Tesla (TSLA): Shares fell below $350 during the session; the host said there was no specific headline explaining the move.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB): Shares rose, but the host said he saw no new company-specific catalyst and suggested it could reflect broader interest in space stocks.
  • Nebius (NBIS): Shares rose early and later gave back much of the gain; no new investment thesis was developed.
  • MongoDB (MDB): Shares rose despite concerns about its CEO’s departure; the company had held an investor day, but the host did not identify a specific new catalyst.
  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS): Shares rose, but the host cited regulatory and legal uncertainty and questioned whether the company has a durable moat beyond marketing.
  • D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and IonQ (IONQ): Both were mentioned as rising during the session; no specific company developments or investment thesis were provided.
  • Palantir (PLTR), Intel (INTC), Arm (ARM), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Zeta Global (ZETA), Grab (GRAB), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), QXO, and SMH/IGV: These were discussed mainly in connection with daily share-price movements or broad sector performance. The transcript did not provide specific recommendations or price targets for them.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!