PCE DATA, ALIBABA COMPETING WITH NVIDIA, SOME FED PRESIDENTS WANT TO CUT FAST | MARKET OPEN
PCE DATA, ALIBABA COMPETING WITH NVIDIA, SOME FED PRESIDENTS WANT TO CUT FAST | MARKET OPEN
253 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Opendoor (OPEN) following a powerful insider signal where the CEO bought shares and the entire executive team halted their pre-scheduled stock sales. For those bullish on Ethereum, Bitmine (BMNR) presents a value opportunity as it trades below its net asset value of cash and ETH holdings. The recent 15% sell-off in Marvell (MRVL) may represent a buying opportunity for long-term investors looking for exposure to the custom AI chip trend. IREN (IREN) is a high-growth consideration after smashing earnings and successfully pivoting from Bitcoin mining to the AI data center ecosystem. Finally, Alibaba (BABA) is a potential value play after crushing earnings and developing its own AI chip, though it carries geopolitical risk.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was down around 1-3% during the podcast. The primary reason cited was a Wall Street Journal article stating that Alibaba (BABA) is developing its own AI chip to serve the Chinese market.
  • This move by Alibaba is to fill the void left by U.S. restrictions on NVIDIA's most advanced chips, like the Blackwell series.
  • NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that conversations to get Blackwell chips into China are ongoing but "may not happen for a while."
  • The host noted that the market expects revenue of around $60 billion, but current guidance without China is $54 billion. The uncertainty around China revenue is creating pressure on the stock.
  • A bull case from investor Brad Gerstner was highlighted: the argument that NVIDIA has "concentration risk" with only a few large customers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google) is a weak one. These customers act as gateways for billions of end-users to access AI, making them stable and massive sources of demand.
  • The host mentioned that if NVIDIA can achieve $8 in Earnings Per Share (EPS) next year, its current valuation would be considered cheap, trading below the market's average price-to-earnings multiple.

Takeaways

  • Short-term Headwinds: The stock is facing pressure from two main sources: 1) Fear of rising competition in China, and 2) Uncertainty about when or if it can sell its most advanced chips there.
  • Underlying Strength: Despite the China issue, the company is still guiding for massive growth ($8 billion quarter-over-quarter). Demand from major U.S. tech giants remains incredibly strong.
  • Potential Catalyst: A deal to sell Blackwell chips in China would be a significant positive catalyst, potentially adding billions to revenue and justifying a higher stock price.
  • Valuation Perspective: The stock could be seen as a long-term value opportunity if you believe in its ability to hit future earnings targets like $8 of EPS, which would make its current price attractive.

Alibaba (BABA)

  • The stock was up significantly, around 8%, after reporting earnings that "crushed" expectations.
  • Growth in its AI and Cloud divisions was noted as being particularly strong.
  • A major news item from their earnings was the announcement that they are developing their own AI chip. This chip is designed to compete with NVIDIA's H20 chip and serve the Chinese market, which faces restrictions on buying advanced U.S. chips.
  • The host commented that Chinese stocks have been out of favor for a while, but Alibaba has performed well since the Chinese government began implementing economic stimulus.
  • The company holds about $180 billion in cash, which is described as "insane." The host believes that without the geopolitical risk associated with the Chinese government (CCP), the company would be valued much higher, potentially closer to a trillion dollars.

Takeaways

  • Strong Performance: Alibaba delivered strong earnings results, signaling that its core business is performing well.
  • Strategic Pivot: Developing its own AI chip is a key strategic move. It allows Alibaba to capitalize on massive domestic demand for AI infrastructure that U.S. companies are restricted from fully serving. This could be a major new growth driver.
  • Geopolitical Discount: The stock appears to be trading at a significant discount due to investor fears about the Chinese government. For investors comfortable with that risk, the current price may represent a value opportunity given the company's strong fundamentals and cash position.

IREN (IREN)

  • The stock surged 20-25% after the company "absolutely smashed earnings."
  • IREN, which started as a Bitcoin miner, has successfully pivoted its business to focus on the AI data center ecosystem.
  • Positive developments included adding more GPUs, signing a collaboration agreement with NVIDIA, and strengthening its cloud computing business.
  • The host contrasted IREN's success with other Bitcoin miners like CleanSpark (CLSK), which has struggled despite a higher Bitcoin price.

Takeaways

  • Successful Business Pivot: IREN is a prime example of a company successfully transitioning from a pure crypto play to a high-growth AI infrastructure provider.
  • Strong Execution: The outstanding earnings report and new partnership with NVIDIA validate the company's new strategy and demonstrate strong execution.
  • Retail Favorite: The host refers to it as a "retail gem," indicating it's a popular stock among individual investors that has performed very well.

Ethereum (ETH) & Related Plays

  • Institutional Interest: The host highlighted a major trend where Ethereum ETFs are seeing massive inflows ($4 billion in August) while Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows. This suggests "Wall Street is definitely getting more excited about Ethereum."
  • Bitmine (BMNR): This company was mentioned as a proxy for Ethereum.
    • It was noted to be trading below its net asset value (NAV), specifically its holdings of cash and Ethereum.
    • The host recalled a past instance where, in a similar situation, the stock went on to double in price.
    • The performance of BMNR is seen as being highly dependent on the price of Ethereum.
  • Long-Term Thesis: The core investment thesis for Ethereum is its central role in the tokenization of real-world assets on Wall Street (e.g., real estate, stocks, bonds). As more assets are moved onto the blockchain, Ethereum is positioned to be the primary beneficiary, driving demand for the network and its token.

Takeaways

  • Follow the Money: Large institutional investors appear to be favoring Ethereum over Bitcoin in the short term, which could provide a tailwind for its price.
  • Value Play (BMNR): Bitmine (BMNR) could be an interesting value play for those bullish on Ethereum, as it's currently trading for less than the assets it holds on its balance sheet. This is a higher-risk way to get exposure to ETH.
  • The Big Picture: The long-term potential for Ethereum is tied to the massive trend of tokenizing traditional financial assets. This is not a short-term trade but a multi-year investment theme.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Prominent strategist Tom Lee was quoted describing Palantir as a powerful combination of "McKinsey plus the best software company," suggesting its value is misunderstood by the market.
  • Salesforce (CRM) CEO Marc Benioff was quoted publicly commenting on Palantir. He seemed surprised and somewhat envious of Palantir's ability to win very expensive government contracts and its high valuation.
  • Benioff also acknowledged the effectiveness of Palantir's "forward deployed engineer" model, where engineers work directly with clients to build solutions from the start.
  • The host interpreted Benioff's comments as a strong validation of Palantir's product effectiveness and its competitive "moat," especially in the government sector.

Takeaways

  • Strong Endorsements: The company is receiving high praise from respected market analysts and even its competitors, which reinforces the bull case for its technology and business model.
  • Competitive Moat: Palantir's ability to command high prices and win contracts in sensitive government areas where larger companies like Salesforce cannot compete points to a significant and durable competitive advantage.
  • Valuation: While the stock trades at a high multiple, the discussion suggests this may be justified by the unique strength and effectiveness of its software.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The host revealed he sold his SoFi call options for a 10x gain, turning a $3,500 investment into $40,000.
  • His reason for selling was to raise cash in anticipation of potential market dips in September, which he views as a buying opportunity.
  • A future interest rate cut by the Fed is seen as a bullish catalyst for SoFi's business.
  • The host speculated on whether SoFi could have an explosive run similar to Robinhood (HOOD) or Palantir (PLTR), potentially reaching $50 per share. He believes this would require its technology platform segments (Galileo and Technisys) to achieve 30% growth.

Takeaways

  • Profit-Taking Signal: The host's decision to sell a highly profitable position could be seen as a signal to consider locking in some gains on high-flying stocks, especially ahead of a historically volatile month like September.
  • Catalyst on the Horizon: An expected Fed rate cut is a key positive factor for SoFi's lending business.
  • Long-Term Growth Story: For SoFi to become a breakout stock, investors should closely monitor the growth rates of its technology platform businesses, as this is seen as the key to unlocking a much higher valuation.

Opendoor (OPEN)

  • The stock was up 5-10% on what the host called "super bullish" news.
  • The interim CEO purchased 30,000 shares of stock.
  • The entire executive team pledged to halt their pre-scheduled stock sales (10b5-1 plans). This is significant because they had been selling shares aggressively for the past year and a half, even at prices as low as $0.50.
  • Risk Factor: The host warned of a potential stock offering. Since the stock is trading at 10 times its book value, management might use the high price to raise cash. A competitor, OfferPad (OPAD), recently did this, and its stock fell 23%.

Takeaways

  • Strong Insider Signal: The combination of a CEO buying shares and the entire executive team stopping their sales is a powerful vote of confidence from those who know the company best. This could signal a potential turnaround in the business.
  • Potential Dilution Risk: While the insider activity is positive, investors should be aware of the risk that the company could issue new shares to raise money. This would dilute existing shareholders and could cause the stock price to drop.

Marvell (MRVL)

  • The stock was down sharply, around 15%, due to disappointing earnings and guidance.
  • A guest analyst explained that Marvell's business of helping companies like Amazon and Microsoft create their own custom AI chips results in "choppy" and inconsistent revenue.
  • The market dislikes this lumpiness and wants to see smooth, predictable growth every quarter, which Marvell is not currently delivering.
  • The guest analyst believes the "AI story" for Marvell is just beginning and that the current sell-off represents a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Takeaways

  • Short-Term Pain: The stock is being punished for its lumpy revenue profile, which makes it appear less reliable than other AI plays.
  • Long-Term Growth Play: For investors with a longer time horizon, the current dip could be an opportunity to invest in the custom AI chip trend at a lower price. This is a higher-risk, higher-reward play compared to market leaders like NVIDIA.
  • Patience Required: Investing in Marvell requires patience, as the path to consistent growth may not be a straight line.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - PCE 11:25 - Nvidia 31:05 - Tom Lee 44:00 - Market Open 1:18:00 - Jose Joins 1:39:00 - Gabriella Santos 1:53:00 - Gerstner Speaks
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!