PALANTIR Q3 2026 EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
PALANTIR Q3 2026 EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
13 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Palantir (PLTR) is the strongest growth opportunity discussed: Q3 revenue rose 96% and management raised 2026 guidance to $8.53 billion; consider a long-term entry only if the share price fits your valuation expectations, as the stock remains volatile and richly valued.
  • Grab (GRAB) reported 30% revenue growth, sharply higher cash flow, and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to about $800 million; monitor whether it can sustain that outlook amid macroeconomic pressure.
  • Apple (AAPL) delivered solid growth, but elevated valuation, rising memory costs, and near-term Mac and iPad supply constraints argue for waiting for clearer guidance before buying.
  • Strong earnings at Roku (ROKU) and semiconductor-related companies did not establish a durable investment case; watch for confirmation that growth and post-earnings gains persist.
Detailed Analysis

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  • Q3 2026 revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96% year over year; U.S. commercial revenue rose 148%, and U.S. government revenue rose 96%.
    • U.S. commercial revenue exceeded U.S. government revenue for the first time.
    • Net dollar retention reached 165%, suggesting existing customers are expanding their use of Palantir’s products.
    • The company reported 47% GAAP operating margin, 53% adjusted free-cash-flow margin, and $10.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasury securities.
  • Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.53 billion, or 91% year-over-year growth, and forecast U.S. commercial growth of at least 143%. It expects Q4 revenue of about $2.65 billion.
  • The central investment thesis in the discussion was Palantir’s role in putting AI to work inside organizations. Speakers said its platform connects AI models to company data, workflows, and controls, and can help customers fine-tune open-weight models for specific tasks at lower cost than frontier models.
    • Examples cited included L3Harris achieving a preliminary 95% cost reduction with a sovereign AI model, and NVIDIA using its own models and workflows to improve task-specific performance.
    • Management said customer adoption is moving from pilots to larger deployments more quickly, while customers expand contracts as they see value.
  • Speakers were strongly bullish on the business and argued that the company’s growth, margins, and customer expansion could justify a higher valuation. One panelist viewed $170–$175 as attractive for a long-term investor; others said the shares should be above $200. Those were personal opinions, not company guidance.
    • The transcript also cited analyst price targets around $230–$260, with speculation that some analysts might raise targets toward $300 after updating estimates. These are analyst views or panelist speculation, not guaranteed outcomes.
    • CEO Alex Karp said Palantir aims to reach $15 billion in U.S. commercial revenue in 2028. This is an ambition, not formal guidance.
  • Risks and points to monitor: Palantir’s stock fell roughly 4% after hours despite the results, amid a weak market. Speakers also flagged softer sequential trends in some forward-looking contract measures: total remaining deal value rose 2% sequentially, while remaining performance obligations were flat sequentially. The company said some new sovereign AI contracts were shorter in duration than usual, though it expects their size and duration to increase over time.
    • Other risks discussed included the stock’s high valuation, sensitivity to market and geopolitical sentiment, uncertainty around government-related business, and Palantir’s ability to expand its workforce and delivery capacity to serve demand.
    • The top 20 customers generated a substantial share of revenue, although their revenue was growing rapidly. That customer concentration is worth monitoring.
  • Takeaway: The discussion supports a bullish view of Palantir’s growth and customer expansion, but the stock’s valuation and volatility mean investors may want to compare the share price with their own expectations for sustained growth, margins, and execution. The transcript’s price opinions are not a substitute for an independent valuation.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple reported quarterly revenue of $114.48 billion, up 12% year over year, and EPS of $2.10, including a $0.05 tariff refund benefit.
    • iPhone revenue was $57.58 billion, ahead of expectations; Greater China sales rose 21%.
    • Services revenue was $31.57 billion, roughly in line with expectations and up 10% year over year. Mac revenue rose 24%, while iPad and wearables, home, and accessories came in below expectations.
  • Management said memory costs were pressuring margins and that Mac and iPad supply would be constrained in the December quarter because demand exceeded expectations.
  • The stock fell after the report. Speakers noted that Apple had been relatively resilient during the broader market sell-off, but said its valuation remained high compared with many large technology companies.
  • Takeaway: The discussion characterized the results as decent rather than exceptional. Investors may want to watch memory costs, product supply, and the next quarter’s guidance before deciding whether the premium valuation is supported by growth.

Roku (ROKU)

  • Roku reported EPS of $1.20, versus $0.54 expected, and revenue of $1.5 billion, about 24% higher year over year.
  • The stock rose after the report, though the discussion did not offer a longer-term valuation view or specific recommendation.
  • Takeaway: The results showed a strong earnings beat and solid revenue growth. Investors would need more information on the durability of earnings and the company’s outlook to assess whether the initial positive reaction is sustainable.

Fabronet (company name as stated in the transcript)

  • The company reported revenue of $1.47 billion, up 51% year over year, and EPS of $4.34, both above expectations. Its guidance was also described as a beat.
  • The stock rose after hours, but the speakers noted that it remained well below its June peak and that semiconductor-related stocks had often struggled to hold post-earnings gains during the recent market weakness.
  • Takeaway: The reported results were strong, but the discussion emphasized that earnings beats had not reliably translated into lasting share-price gains across the sector. Consider the broader semiconductor cycle and the stock’s distance from prior highs.

Air Test Systems (company name as stated in the transcript)

  • The company reported EPS of $0.28 versus $0.13 expected and revenue of $33 million versus $27 million expected. Revenue was up 200% year over year.
  • The stock was described as volatile, with a sharp after-hours move following the results.
  • Takeaway: The transcript highlighted rapid growth and a strong earnings beat, but also emphasized the stock’s volatility. The discussion provided too little information about the company’s business or valuation to support a firm investment conclusion.

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)

  • Lattice was mentioned as having reported earnings, with its stock roughly flat after hours. The speakers did not discuss its results in detail.
  • Takeaway: There was no substantial company-specific investment thesis in the discussion.

Grab (GRAB)

  • Grab reported quarterly revenue of $1.12 billion, its first billion-dollar quarter, up 30% year over year.
    • Adjusted EBITDA rose 73% year over year, and adjusted free cash flow rose 100%.
    • The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to about $800 million, implying roughly 60% growth, and reported 57 million monthly active users, up 20% year over year.
    • It had $500 million remaining in its share-repurchase authorization and had repurchased about $400 million of shares in September and October.
  • The panel viewed the headline results and raised outlook positively, while noting that oil prices and the broader macro environment had weighed on the shares.
  • Takeaway: The quarter showed strong growth in revenue, profitability, and cash flow. Investors may want to assess whether the higher EBITDA outlook is sustainable and how macro conditions affect the business.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • Bloom Energy shares rose after the California Resources Corporation announced a strategic partnership with Bloom to promote lower-carbon power generation in California.
  • Takeaway: The announcement points to a potential partnership-related opportunity, but the transcript provided no details on the expected financial contribution or timing.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was cited as a customer and example of the sovereign AI theme: the transcript said it used Palantir workflows to post-train open models, improve task-specific performance, and retrain a model on a single GPU.
  • The broader discussion argued that organizations may not need the most expensive frontier models for every use case if smaller or open-weight models can be adapted to their specific needs.
  • Takeaway: The discussion points to a potential shift in AI value toward efficient, task-specific deployment—not just larger models or more computing capacity. It did not provide a specific NVIDIA earnings outlook or investment recommendation.

Anthropic and OpenAI (private AI companies)

  • The speakers argued that open-weight models and company-specific fine-tuning could pressure the economics of frontier AI labs, particularly if customers can achieve similar or better results at much lower cost.
  • Anthropic was also discussed in connection with a possible IPO. The transcript reported that some potential IPO investors favored a lower starting valuation, while the speakers speculated that the company’s growth may be decelerating.
  • Takeaway: The discussion raised a risk to the business models of standalone AI model providers, but these were the speakers’ views rather than confirmed outcomes. Anthropic and OpenAI were discussed as private companies, not publicly traded stocks.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) and cybersecurity

  • CrowdStrike was used as a valuation comparison: one speaker said it traded at a higher EV/EBITDA multiple than Palantir despite slower growth and lower margins.
  • The speakers also said the “Mythos” cybersecurity narrative had increased investor interest in cybersecurity stocks, while questioning whether some of those valuation premiums were too aggressive.
  • Takeaway: The discussion suggested that cybersecurity may retain investor interest as AI adoption expands, but it also cautioned that sector enthusiasm can push valuations beyond what company growth and profitability appear to support.

ServiceNow (NOW), Snowflake (SNOW), and Salesforce (CRM)

  • These software companies were discussed as comparisons with Palantir. Speakers argued that their growth rates were lower than Palantir’s and questioned whether their AI offerings were translating into comparable customer value.
  • ServiceNow was described as promoting itself as an AI “control tower,” while speakers said its growth did not match Palantir’s. Snowflake and Salesforce were cited as examples of software companies with larger customer bases but less dramatic growth in the discussion’s view.
  • Takeaway: The comparison favors Palantir in the speakers’ assessment, but it does not establish that the peer companies are poor investments. Investors may want to compare each company’s growth, margins, valuation, and evidence of customer adoption.

Semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks

  • The discussion noted that semiconductor stocks had been volatile despite strong results from some companies, with several shares remaining well below earlier highs. It referenced Marvell, Lumentum, Intel, and Micron in the context of earnings, sector performance, or rising memory costs.
  • Speakers described market uncertainty over AI capital expenditure: investors were questioning whether spending on data centers and AI models was sustainable, even as other parts of the market worried about whether enough investment was being made.
  • Takeaway: The transcript supports a cautious view of the sector’s near-term price action: strong earnings did not consistently lead to lasting gains. Investors may want to distinguish companies benefiting from demand today from those whose outlook depends on continued rapid infrastructure spending.

Broad market, oil, and geopolitical risk

  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq-linked stocks, and semiconductor shares were described as falling during a broad market sell-off. The speakers linked weak sentiment to uncertainty around AI capital expenditure, U.S. midterm politics, and the Iran conflict.
  • Crude oil was reported near $96 per barrel and Brent near $104 during the discussion; oil later fell sharply as markets reacted to hopes for a possible Iran settlement.
  • Takeaway: The discussion highlighted macroeconomic and geopolitical events as possible sources of near-term volatility across stocks, including companies that reported strong results. Investors may want to avoid treating a single company’s earnings as the only driver of its share price.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!