Palantir Gets a MASSIVE New Deal, Tesla Gets Upgraded, China Deal May Be Coming Soon | Daily Recap
Palantir Gets a MASSIVE New Deal, Tesla Gets Upgraded, China Deal May Be Coming Soon | Daily Recap
193 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Google (GOOGL) shows strong momentum with a recent price target upgrade to $300, driven by high demand for its AI hardware and infrastructure. Consider Qualcomm (QCOM) as a new way to invest in the AI data center boom, with analysts setting a $225 price target based on its expansion into the market. Palantir (PLTR) is seen as a high-conviction growth play, with its expanding government contracts supporting a potential run to $200 upon strong earnings. The investment case for Tesla (TSLA) is shifting to a long-term physical AI play, with major catalysts like the RoboTaxi network expected around 2026. Finally, the massive power needs for AI highlight Energy for AI as a key long-term theme, pointing to opportunities in companies like NextEra Energy (NEE) that utilize nuclear power.

Detailed Analysis

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir secured a new agreement with Poland's Ministry of Defense, which is a letter of intent to use Palantir's AI-enabled defense technology.
  • This is seen as part of a broader bullish thesis that Palantir is becoming the "operating system of the West," supporting countries that align with Western values. Palantir has never sold to Russia or China.
  • The company is expanding its work with international governments, following a billion-dollar contract with the UK's Ministry of Defense.
  • The speaker believes that government contracts serve as a gateway to commercial customers in those same countries, as it's easier to sell to a company when you're already working with their government.
  • The stock recently hit new all-time highs. The speaker mentioned personally buying shares at $171, $173, and even $180.
  • The speaker acknowledges the valuation is aggressive but believes the company's growth justifies it, projecting a growth rate of over 50% with expanding operating margins.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The podcast has a very strong bullish view on Palantir, driven by its expanding government contracts and the strategic advantage this provides for entering commercial markets.
  • Growth Over Valuation: The investment thesis presented is that Palantir's high growth potential, sticky revenue, and strong margins may justify its expensive valuation. The speaker believes a run to $200 is "not crazy" if they deliver strong earnings.
  • Key Catalyst: Upcoming earnings are a major catalyst. The speaker expects the company to increase its guidance, which could further validate the stock's high multiple to Wall Street.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla received a significant price target upgrade from Cantor Fitzgerald, which raised its target from $355 to $510.
  • The upgrade is based on the belief that volume production of its CyberCaps, Semi, and Megapack 3 are on track for fiscal year 2026.
  • Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was quoted as saying autonomous cars are "solved" and that Tesla is the "manifestation of physical AI."
  • The primary investment thesis is shifting away from near-term car sales and towards the long-term potential of Full Self-Driving (FSD), RoboTaxi, and Optimus humanoid robots.
  • The key catalyst for 2026 is the scaling of the RoboTaxi network. If Tesla can remove the safety driver in cities like Austin, it would be a major step toward monetization.
  • Despite weak near-term earnings growth (negative 30% year-over-year was mentioned), the market appears to be pricing the stock based on its future potential as a physical AI company.

Takeaways

  • Long-Term AI Play: Tesla is increasingly being viewed by analysts not just as a car company, but as a primary way to invest in the future of physical AI and robotics.
  • Look to 2026: The major catalysts that justify the bullish price targets are several years away. Investors should be focused on progress in FSD and the RoboTaxi network as key milestones.
  • High-Level Insight: The stock's movement is currently detached from its immediate earnings, driven instead by the narrative and Wall Street's belief in its long-term AI moonshot potential.

Google (GOOGL)

  • Google received a price target upgrade to $300.
  • AI company Anthropic is reportedly buying one million more of Google's custom TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) chips, signaling strong demand for Google's AI hardware.
  • The stock recently hit an all-time high and is the second-best performing "Mag 7" stock, up 37% year-to-date.
  • Highlighting the massive energy needs for AI, Google is reportedly competing to purchase power from a nuclear power plant being restarted by NextEra Energy (NEE) in Iowa. This is part of a larger trend of tech giants securing energy for their data centers.

Takeaways

  • Strong Momentum: Google is seen as a top-performing, fundamentally strong tech giant that continues to execute well.
  • AI & Infrastructure Play: The investment case is supported by both its software dominance and its growing role as a key provider of AI hardware (TPUs) and infrastructure (data centers).
  • Energy Angle: Google's move to secure nuclear power underscores the massive, growing energy demand from the AI boom, pointing to a potential investment theme in energy stocks that power data centers.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

  • Rosenblatt issued a buy rating on Qualcomm with a $225 price target.
  • The company introduced new chips that position it as a potential competitor in the AI inference data center market, a space currently dominated by NVIDIA and AMD.
  • Qualcomm has secured a 200-megawatt deployment with a company called Human in Saudi Arabia, which Rosenblatt estimates could generate $2 billion in revenue for Qualcomm, with deployment starting in 2026.
  • This move is part of the company's long-term strategy to diversify away from its reliance on the smartphone market.

Takeaways

  • New Growth Vector: Qualcomm is making a serious play for the lucrative AI data center market, which could provide a significant new revenue stream and re-accelerate growth.
  • Potential Market Share Gain: While not seen as a direct replacement for NVIDIA's top chips, Qualcomm's entry into the market introduces a new, credible player. This could be a way to invest in the AI hardware boom through a company that may have a more reasonable valuation than current leaders.
  • Timeline: The financial impact of this new venture is not immediate, with revenue from the announced deal expected to start in 2026.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Robinhood received a price target upgrade from Compass Point, from $105 to $161.
  • The analyst's forecast for 3Q EBITDA is 6% above the consensus on Wall Street, and they are raising their 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates.
  • The stock recently experienced a "shakedown," falling from $150 to $120 before recovering. The speaker views this as a healthy correction that removed short-term speculators.
  • The bull case is that if Robinhood can continue to beat earnings expectations, its premium valuation is justified.

Takeaways

  • Quality Growth Story: The podcast frames Robinhood as a quality company, not a meme stock. Its success is tied to its ability to deliver strong earnings growth.
  • Catalyst Dependent: For the stock to continue its upward trend and justify its multiple, it must "crush" earnings. Its performance is also tied to the health of the broader market, including the S&P 500 and crypto.
  • Analyst Support: The significant price target upgrade from Compass Point indicates growing confidence from Wall Street in Robinhood's ability to execute.

Broader Market & Investment Themes

  • Macro Outlook: The overall market sentiment is bullish. Positive drivers include:
    • Easing U.S.-China trade tensions.
    • A 97% chance of Fed rate cuts at the next meeting.
    • Trillions of dollars in cash on the sidelines that could enter the market.
    • November is historically the best month of the year for stocks.
  • Healthy Correction: The recent pullback in speculative, high-flying stocks is viewed as very healthy for the continuation of the bull market. It has taken "froth" out of the system and forced capital back into companies with strong fundamentals and earnings.
  • Rare Earth Minerals (e.g., MP Materials): These stocks have declined due to easing China tensions. The logic is that if the U.S. continues importing from China, the short-term demand for more expensive domestic producers is reduced.
  • Energy for AI: The discussion about Google buying nuclear power highlights a key emerging theme: the massive energy required to power the AI boom. This suggests that energy producers, particularly in nuclear and related infrastructure like battery production (ENS was mentioned), could be a major investment theme for 2026.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Intro 01:45 - Palantir 06:27 - Macro 14:20 - Tesla 17:50 - Robinhood, Google, Qualcomm
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!