OPENAI RELEASES A TON OF NEW NUMBERS, AMD UP 25%, BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGHS | MARKET CLOSE
OPENAI RELEASES A TON OF NEW NUMBERS, AMD UP 25%, BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGHS | MARKET CLOSE
215 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a top AI play following its massive partnership with OpenAI, with Bank of America raising its price target to $250. The crypto bull market is accelerating as Bitcoin (BTC) surpasses $126,000 and Ethereum (ETH) breaks $4,700, driven by strong institutional ETF inflows. For a leveraged play on this trend, consider Bitmine (BMNR), a company holding a large ETH treasury that could see significant upside if Ethereum continues its rally. Trilogy Metals (TMQ) presents a unique opportunity in critical minerals after the U.S. government confirmed it will take an investment stake to secure domestic copper supply. Lastly, consider Southeast Asian tech company Grab (GRAB), which is viewed as undervalued and is breaking out above $6.40 per share.

Detailed Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • The stock was up 25% on the day, closing around $203 after hitting a high near $215.
  • The primary driver was the announcement of a major partnership with OpenAI.
  • The deal involves OpenAI potentially acquiring 10% of AMD if they purchase GPUs and data centers to the tune of $100 billion in revenue over the next five years.
  • The deal structure is seen as a sophisticated way to align incentives, as OpenAI's final warrants to buy shares at $0.01 only vest if they help AMD's market cap triple to nearly $1 trillion.
  • Bank of America raised its price target on AMD from $200 to $250, estimating the OpenAI deal could be worth $100 billion to AMD.
  • Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities views this deal as bringing AMD "right into the AI revolution" and believes it's "just the start" for the company. He suggests AMD could capture 15-20% of the AI chip market.
  • The podcast host notes that some traders who bought out-of-the-money call options saw gains of up to 168,000%.

Takeaways

  • The partnership with OpenAI is a massive validation of AMD's position in the AI hardware race, positioning it as a strong number two player behind NVIDIA.
  • The deal provides a long-term revenue pipeline ($100 billion over 5 years) and a clear path to significant growth for AMD's data center business.
  • Investors see this as a sign that the demand for AI compute is so vast that even NVIDIA's massive supply is not enough, creating a huge market for AMD to capture.
  • While the stock saw a huge one-day pop, the structure of the deal suggests a long-term growth trajectory, though the host notes the chips won't ship until the second half of 2026.

AI Sector & OpenAI

  • The podcast highlights the immense growth of OpenAI, which is a private company.
    • It now has 800 million weekly active users for ChatGPT, up from 700 million the previous month.
    • It has 4 million developers building on its platform.
    • It processes 6 billion tokens per minute, equating to an annual run rate of 3.15 quadrillion tokens.
  • This massive growth in usage and data processing is the reason OpenAI needs so much computing power ("compute") from partners like AMD and NVIDIA.
  • OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, stated that the lack of compute is the primary bottleneck preventing them from launching more monetizable products.
  • A new feature, "chatting with apps," was announced, integrating services like Spotify, Figma, and Zillow directly into the ChatGPT experience. This is seen as a major catalyst for user growth and engagement for both OpenAI and its partners.
  • Analyst Dan Ives believes we are in a "1996 moment" for AI, not a "1999 moment," suggesting the boom is in its early stages (second inning of a nine-inning game) and has a long way to run. He forecasts the NASDAQ could reach 25,000 or 30,000.
  • The podcast addresses the "circular financing" bear case (e.g., NVIDIA invests in OpenAI, which then uses the money to buy chips from AMD). The host and guests argue this is a moot point as long as AI generates a real Return on Investment (ROI).
  • The massive AI buildout is expected to create huge demand for energy, which is why energy and nuclear-related stocks like Oklo and Nanonuclear were up significantly.

Takeaways

  • The AI trend is not slowing down; user and developer adoption is accelerating at an incredible pace, validating the massive investments being made.
  • "Compute" is the new oil. The primary constraint to AI growth is the availability of powerful GPUs and data centers, making companies that provide this infrastructure (NVIDIA, AMD, Dell, data center REITs, and energy suppliers) critical investments.
  • The integration of popular apps into AI chatbots could be the next major growth vector, creating a new "app store" like ecosystem and driving further demand for compute.
  • While bubble fears exist, the consensus on the podcast is that the AI revolution is in its early stages with a potential 7-10 year runway, and any market corrections would be buying opportunities.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high, touching $126,300 before settling around $125,000.
  • Prediction markets (Kalshi) are giving Bitcoin a 59% chance of surpassing $145,000.
  • Ethereum (ETH) also saw strong performance, breaking through and holding the $4,700 level.
  • The host notes that ETF inflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum have been massive, with daily inflows often exceeding $500 million for Bitcoin and $200 million for Ethereum.
  • The price action in these major cryptocurrencies is having a direct positive impact on related stocks.

Takeaways

  • Strong institutional inflows via ETFs are fueling a powerful rally in major cryptocurrencies, pushing them to new all-time highs.
  • The momentum in Bitcoin and Ethereum serves as a major catalyst for crypto-related equities, such as miners and crypto-focused fintech companies.
  • The acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method by companies like Open Door adds to the bullish sentiment and real-world adoption case.

Bitmine (BMNR)

  • The stock was up 10.7% on the day, closing near $63.
  • Its performance is directly tied to the price of Ethereum (ETH), as the company holds a large treasury of ETH.
  • The company recently disclosed it holds 2.83 million Ethereum.
  • The host speculates that the company did not dilute (sell new shares) on the day, which allowed the stock to run freely with ETH's price increase.
  • A video by another creator, Tanner, was mentioned, which calculated that if ETH reaches Tom Lee's price target of $12,000, BMNR could conservatively be worth $147 per share. The host clarifies this is a conditional calculation, not a direct price target.

Takeaways

  • BMNR is a leveraged play on the price of Ethereum. As ETH rises, the value of BMNR's treasury and its stock price are expected to increase significantly.
  • Investors should monitor the company for potential share dilution, which could temporarily dampen the stock's upward momentum even if ETH continues to rise.
  • The potential upside is considered very high if you are bullish on Ethereum's long-term price appreciation.

AppLovin (APP)

  • The stock plummeted, down 16-18% after hours, falling from over $700 to the $550-$590 range.
  • The drop was caused by a Bloomberg report that the SEC is probing the company over its data collection practices.
  • The probe is looking into whether AppLovin violated partner service agreements to push more targeted ads.
  • The host initially felt this could be a "nothing burger" and a potential "buy the dip" opportunity on a high-growth company.
  • However, after analyzing the company's official statement ("we don't comment on regulatory matters") and a clip from a short-seller, the sentiment shifted to be more cautious.
  • The short-seller alleged that AppLovin's growth comes from violating platforms' terms of service by using "persistent identifier graphs" to track users, and that the company masks this by claiming its AI is simply superior.

Takeaways

  • This is a high-risk, potentially high-reward situation. The stock of a fast-growing company is down significantly on regulatory news.
  • Bear Case: The SEC probe is serious and could invalidate AppLovin's core business model, which would mean its high growth was illegitimate and is no longer sustainable. The company's vague public statement adds to this concern.
  • Bull Case: The probe is minor and results in a small fine or no action (a "nothing burger"). If so, buying the stock at a 20% discount could be a very profitable trade.
  • Investors should be extremely cautious. The outcome is binary, and more information is needed about the severity of the SEC's investigation before making a decision.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The stock had a strong day, closing up 5.4% around $453.
  • There is major anticipation for a big announcement scheduled for the next day.
  • A Bloomberg report, citing anonymous sources, claimed Tesla plans to unveil a cheaper Model Y.
  • The host and chat participants speculate that an "affordable" car would need to be in the $30,000 - $35,000 price range to be a true competitor to mass-market cars like the Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.
  • There was also speculation about a potential partnership with Archer Aviation (ACHR), but this seemed to be dismissed after the Model Y news broke.

Takeaways

  • The market is highly anticipating a catalyst from Tesla. The announcement of a cheaper, mass-market vehicle could be a significant driver for future volume growth.
  • A lower-priced vehicle could sacrifice some of Tesla's industry-leading profit margins but could be offset by higher sales volume and adoption of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
  • The stock's price action will be heavily influenced by the details of the announcement—specifically the price point and features of the new vehicle.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Robinhood (HOOD): The stock was down about 2% to $144. The host is not concerned, viewing it as healthy profit-taking after the stock ran from $120 to $150 in the prior week. He is not buying this "dip" as he doesn't consider it a true dip.
  • Grab (GRAB): The stock broke out, closing at $6.40. The host is very bullish, noting he bought more at $5.80. He believes the CEO's recent interview with the Wall Street Journal is a positive sign of the company embracing media, and that the stock is undervalued below $6.
  • Open Door (OPEN): The stock was up 15% on news that the company will begin accepting Bitcoin and other cryptos as payment for homes. This move is seen as innovative but raises questions about how they will manage the volatility of crypto on their balance sheet.
  • Trilogy Metals (TMQ): The stock surged 132% after hours. This was driven by a Trump executive order to build an access road in Alaska's Ambler Mining District and a confirmed report that the U.S. government will take an investment stake in the company to bolster domestic supply of critical minerals like copper.
  • Oscar Health (OSCR): The stock was highly volatile after hours, surging to $25 before settling around $23.80 (still up over 10%). The move was triggered by President Trump's comments that he would "make a deal" on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which would be very bullish for health insurers like Oscar.
  • Archer Aviation (ACHR): The stock was up 17% during the day on heavy speculation of a partnership with Tesla. It later gave back some of those gains after hours when the report about Tesla's cheaper Model Y came out, suggesting the partnership rumor was unfounded.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - OpenAI 15:00 - Market Close 27:20 - Dan Ives Speaks 45:54 - Headlines 1:11:00 - Youtube Plaque 1:28:00 - Steve Joins 1:47:37 - Applovin Analysis
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!