Avoid chasing SpaceX at current levels above 200, as the low float creates artificial volatility; instead, wait for a safer entry point near the 175–176 support level.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is entering a short-term cooling phase, making the 189–190 range a high-conviction "buy-the-dip" opportunity for long-term investors targeting 300.

Microsoft (MSFT) is currently in "last call" territory for buyers, offering an attractive entry for dollar-cost averaging near its 350–356 support floor.

For speculative growth, monitor Intel (INTC) for a potential squeeze toward 170 if it holds above 125, and follow insider buying signals for SoFi (SOFI) near the 18 price point.

Shift focus toward the "Megawatt" thesis by investing in AI power infrastructure providers like Vertiv (VRT) and Constellation Energy (CEG), which serve as the essential backbone for data center expansion.

SpaceX (Private/IPO Momentum)

• The stock experienced extreme volatility, opening at 197, peaking at 225, and closing near 201. • Massive trading volume: 300 million shares traded in a single day with 1.5 million options contracts. • Risk Factor: Only 4% of the float is currently available. An "avalanche" of shares (the remaining 96%) will eventually be dumped onto the public as lockup periods expire. • Valuation: Described as "stupid" and contextually worse than Cisco during the dot-com bubble, though the low float is currently manufacturing the pump.

Takeaways

• Momentum is over: For short-term traders, the momentum from the day-one IPO has likely peaked. • Support Levels: Look for support at 190–193. If that fails, the next major retracement level is 175–176. • Avoid Chasing: Do not buy at the 200+ level; wait for a higher low to form in the mid-170s before considering a new entry.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Sentiment is turning slightly bearish in the immediate short term; the stock saw a "nasty candle" into the close, finishing around 207–208. • Discussion suggests the "easy money" from the pre-earnings run-up is done, and the stock is now locking in lower highs.

Takeaways

• Price Target: Analysts suggest a potential pullback to the 189–190 range (a 50% retracement of the recent move). • Long-term Outlook: Still considered a "raging bull" play for a 2–3 year horizon, with a potential path to 300 as the S&P 500 continues to broaden. • Action: If the stock hits 190, it is considered a strong buy-the-dip opportunity.

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Down 1.4% following news of shifting Co-pilot to usage-based pricing and potentially adding cheaper Chinese DeepSeek models. • Walked away from a $3 billion lease deal with Oracle (ORCL) due to security concerns. • Bullish Context: GitHub is identified as a massive future profit driver for AI coding.

Takeaways

• Investment Status: Described as "last call" territory. The stock is near local lows and is an attractive Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) candidate. • Support: Strong support at the 200-week moving average (around 350–356). • Pivot Point: Needs to clear 412 to reverse the current downtrend; once over 485, it enters a "no-sell" zone.

Intel (INTC)

• Significant volatility, dropping from 130 to 117. • Bullish Catalyst: Rumors of a $3 billion TPU order from Google and potential as a major US foundry.

Takeaways

• Sentiment: "Spidey senses" are tingling for a speculative long. If Intel stays above 125, it could squeeze toward 170 into earnings. • Risk: It is not a "short" unless it closes multiple times below 93.

Broadcom (AVGO)

• Down nearly 4% to 378. • The stock is currently in a "nibble" territory but is expected to go sideways for a while, similar to NVIDIA's previous consolidation.

Takeaways

• Buy Zones: 330 is a deep threat/strong buy level. Anything below 350 is a better entry than current prices. • Strategy: Be patient; don't expect an immediate move higher tomorrow.

Space & Satellite Sector

• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Holding support at 99–100. If it holds, it could bounce to 120. Support in the low 80s is a better "discount" entry. • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): High risk/high reward. Currently at a "discounted" level compared to recent highs. • Redwire (RDW): Speculative buy at current levels. Looking for a higher low to form for a move back toward recent highs.

Investment Themes & Sector Insights

The "Warsh" Factor & Macro

• Federal Reserve: Markets are jittery ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting. • Oil: Down 5% on news of a US-Iran MOU. Usually, lower oil is a "layup" for equities, but the market's failure to rally on this news is a bearish signal. • VIX: The volatility index is bottoming. Historically, a bottoming VIX is a sign of "exuberance and euphoria" and is not the time to deploy net new capital.

AI Infrastructure & "Neo-Clouds"

• CoreWeave: Up 9% on the day. Benefiting from the shift toward distributed compute. • The "Megawatt" Thesis: The real bottleneck for AI isn't just chips; it's power. Stocks like Vertiv (VRT), Eaton (ETN), and Constellation Energy (CEG) are highlighted as the "picks and shovels" of the power grid.

Consumer Tech & Fintech

• Robinhood (HOOD): Down after announcing 10% layoffs. Analysts view this as "doing more with less" via AI, which is fundamentally bullish but creates near-term volatility. • Snapchat (SNAP): Bearish sentiment. The new $2,000 AR glasses are viewed as "gaslighting" investors. The company is not GAP profitable and is struggling with its core ad business. • SoFi (SOFI): Bullish insider buying noted (CEO Anthony Noto bought $250k worth at 18.05).

Actionable Summary for the General Public

1. Wait for the Fed: Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will likely create a "fake" initial move. Wait for the press conference to end before making trades.
2. Broadening Market: While Big Tech (Semis) is cooling off, the market is "broadening" into Industrials and Small Caps (IWM).
3. Energy is the Play: Look for companies providing the power for AI data centers (Natural Gas and Nuclear) as a long-term safety trade.