NVIDIA RESPONDS, DELL, WORKDAY, CLEANSPARK, HP EARNINGS + TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
NVIDIA RESPONDS, DELL, WORKDAY, CLEANSPARK, HP EARNINGS + TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
164 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 26 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Analysts view the recent dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) as a buying opportunity, with the $165-$170 range being a key area of interest for investors. Consider any pullbacks in Google (GOOGL) towards the $300-$314 level as potential entry points, as some analysts see a path to $400 driven by its AI advancements. Amazon (AMZN) also presents a constructive setup for a move towards the $235 - $239 price range in the short term. For crypto investors, a decisive breakout in Ethereum (ETH) above the $3,166 level could trigger a significant rally. Given surprising strength in the retail sector, a beaten-down name like Nike (NKE) may offer a low-risk entry for a potential bounce.

Detailed Analysis

Here are the investment insights from the podcast transcript.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock saw a significant dip to $169 following news about Google's competing TPU chips but recovered to around $177. The host and others in the chat were actively buying the dip between $169 and $171.
  • NVIDIA issued a formal response to the Google news, stating they are "a generation ahead of the industry" and that their platform offers greater versatility than specialized chips like Google's. This statement helped calm the market.
  • The host believes the sell-off was an overreaction and that NVIDIA's competitive moat remains strong.
  • Major analysts from Bank of America and Bernstein reiterated their "buy" ratings on NVIDIA, viewing the dip as an opportunity.
  • A Google employee who co-designs the TPUs was quoted as saying the market sell-off was "clueless" because the demand for hardware and data centers is so immense that there is room for multiple players.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: The sentiment from the host and analysts mentioned is bullish, viewing the recent drop as a buying opportunity.
  • Key Levels (Technical Analysis):
    • Resistance: The $177 level, which was previously support, is now acting as a key resistance level.
    • Support: The area down to $165 is considered a strong "dip buy" zone. A break below $165 would be a more serious concern, potentially opening a path to the $145-$150 range, but this is seen as unlikely without a major negative catalyst.
  • Strategy: Investors who believe in NVIDIA's long-term dominance in AI may see the recent weakness as a chance to initiate or add to a position, with $165-$170 being a key area of interest.

Dell Technologies (DELL)

  • Dell reported mixed Q4 earnings, beating on earnings per share ($2.59 vs. $2.48 expected) but slightly missing on revenue ($27B vs. $27.2B expected).
  • The big story was the company's very strong forward guidance for fiscal year 2026, which significantly beat Wall Street estimates on both revenue and earnings.
  • AI Server Demand: Dell raised its AI shipment guidance for the year from $20 billion to $25 billion, signaling massive demand for its AI-optimized servers.
  • The stock's initial reaction was muted despite the strong guidance, which the host found "weird."
  • Jason, the technical analyst, noted that Dell's performance in the next trading session will be a major "sentiment tell" for the entire AI sector.

Takeaways

  • Insight: Dell's guidance provides a strong, positive signal about the ongoing demand for AI infrastructure, which is a bullish indicator for the broader AI and semiconductor sector.
  • Actionable: Watch DELL's stock performance closely. A strong positive reaction could signal renewed confidence in the AI trade, while a weak or negative reaction might suggest broader market concerns are outweighing strong company fundamentals.

Google (GOOGL)

  • The stock hit a new all-time high, closing around $323, driven by excitement over its new TPU chips and AI advancements.
  • Dan Ives of Wedbush was cited as being extremely bullish, suggesting the stock could have another $80-$100 of upside, potentially reaching $400, as the market fully prices in its AI potential.
  • A potential partnership with Apple (AAPL) for Google's Gemini AI model was mentioned as a major future catalyst.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: The underlying sentiment is very bullish due to Google's perceived progress in the AI race with its Gemini model and custom TPU hardware.
  • Key Levels (Technical Analysis):
    • The stock is considered overextended in the very short term, with an "exhaustion candle" on the chart suggesting a potential pullback.
    • A near-term pullback to $314 would be normal. If it drops further, the $300 level is a key psychological support area to watch.
  • Strategy: Long-term investors may view any pullbacks towards the $300-$314 range as potential entry points, given the strong fundamental narrative around AI.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The stock had a strong day, closing up nearly 4% at $636.
  • The host speculates that Meta, along with Microsoft and Amazon, could be the "play for 2026" as they are trading at some of their lowest multiples in years compared to other Magnificent Seven stocks.
  • The discussion highlighted that Meta is considered fundamentally undervalued, with the main question being the future return on its massive capital expenditures in AI and the metaverse.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish on a valuation basis, with the stock seen as one of the "cheaper" Magnificent Seven names.
  • Key Levels (Technical Analysis):
    • The stock has reclaimed the key $634 level. If it fails to hold this level, a retest of the $585 support area is likely.
    • If it holds above $635, the next major targets are $688 and then $720.
  • Strategy: For investors looking for value within big tech, Meta presents a compelling case. The technicals suggest that holding above $635 is critical for the next leg up.

CleanSpark (CLSK)

  • The company reported earnings, missing significantly on EPS but showing 102% year-over-year revenue growth.
  • The stock rallied over 7% after hours. The market ignored the earnings miss, focusing instead on the CEO's strategic pivot.
  • The CEO announced that CleanSpark is evolving into a "comprehensive compute platform" to serve both AI and Bitcoin workloads, leveraging its expertise in power and infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • Insight: This is a prime example of the market rewarding any company that successfully pivots towards the AI infrastructure narrative.
  • Actionable: Investors are clearly excited about companies that can provide the "picks and shovels" for the AI gold rush. CleanSpark's move could make it an interesting speculative play that combines exposure to both AI and crypto trends.

Investment Themes & Other Assets

Retail Sector (URBN, ANF, NKE)

  • Several retail stocks had massive gains, including Urban Outfitters (URBN) up 17% and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) up 37%. The retail ETF (XRT) had one of its best days of the year.
  • This strong performance goes against the narrative of a weakening consumer. The host was surprised that consumers still have money for discretionary purchases like "$75 jeans at Abercrombie."
  • Nike (NKE) was highlighted as a potential "Black Friday deal." The technical setup is seen as a low-risk entry for a bounce ahead of its earnings, especially given the strength in other apparel retailers.

Takeaways

  • Theme: The narrative of a weak consumer may be overstated. Strong earnings from multiple retailers suggest pockets of strength, which could present opportunities in beaten-down retail names.
  • Actionable: Investors could look for laggards in the retail space, like Nike, that haven't run up as much but could benefit from the positive sector sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • The host mentioned that the ever-increasing U.S. budget deficit is a long-term bull case for Bitcoin, even though it wasn't reflected in the day's price action.
  • Ethereum (ETH) was discussed from a technical perspective. It is currently "poking the bears" and needs to show more momentum.
  • Key Levels (ETH): A hold above $2,750 is constructive. A break above $3,166 would be very bullish and could trigger a sharp move higher as short positions are forced to cover. Losing the $2,600 level would be bearish in the short term.

Takeaways

  • Macro: The long-term macro case for hard assets like Bitcoin remains intact due to government spending and deficits.
  • Actionable (ETH): Ethereum is at a critical technical juncture. A decisive move above $3,166 could be a signal for a significant rally.

Other Tech & AI Plays

  • AMD (AMD): The chart is in a precarious position. If it loses the $185 level, it could quickly fall to the $160s. The analyst is waiting for a clearer structure before getting involved.
  • Amazon (AMZN): The chart looks constructive for a "slow-ish grind" higher. The analyst likes the setup for a move towards $235 - $239 in the short term, and eventually $250+. The stock is seen as a good value after its recent pullback.
  • Zscaler (ZS): The company had a "double beat" on earnings and revenue but the stock fell ~8%. This was attributed to the stock already being up 60% year-to-date, suggesting a "sell the news" reaction to a great report in a hot stock.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): The stock was up on news of an acquisition/joint venture with Susquehanna Group to expand its fast-growing prediction markets product. This is seen as a major positive, validating the growth in this new product category.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting jason: https://x.com/PaperGainsInc deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - Market Close 52:22 - NVDA TA 59:16 - GOOGL TA 1:05:20 - AMD TA 1:10:30 - AMZN TA 1:18:00 - ETH TA 1:22:31 - BMNR TA 1:24:20 - TSLA TA 1:29:07 - SOFI TA 1:32:10 - HOOD TA 1:36:29 - PLTR TA 1:41:40 - RKLB TA 1:46:43 - NBIS TA 1:57:25 - CELH TA 1:58:20 - MSFT TA 2:02:28 - ORCL TA 2:04:50 - APLD TA 2:07:45 - CIFR TA 2:10:00 - IREN TA 2:13:30 - TEM TA 2:16:25 - REGN TA 2:19:55 - ASTS TA 2:22:30 - TMDX TA 2:25:10 - PYPL TA 2:29:08 - CRWV TA 2:33:04 - CRM TA 2:36:45 - BBAI TA 2:38:44 - JOBY TA 2:44:10 - ONDS TA 2:47:00 - BROS TA 2:50:00 - NKE TA 2:53:48 - SMCI TA 2:56:00 - RDDT TA 3:00:00 - GRAB TA 3:03:00 - CLS TA 3:05:00 - ELF TA 3:16:00 - MU TA
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!