NVIDIA HITS ALL TIME HIGHS, 3 YEAR BULL MARKET ANNIVERSARY, GOV STILL SHUTDOWN | MARKET OPEN
NVIDIA HITS ALL TIME HIGHS, 3 YEAR BULL MARKET ANNIVERSARY, GOV STILL SHUTDOWN | MARKET OPEN
211 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 42 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider building a position in Amcor (AMKR), an undervalued semiconductor services company with a price target of $50 to $60 within the next year due to the onshoring of chip manufacturing. While NVIDIA (NVDA) hits new highs, note that Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $300, signaling strong conviction in the long-term AI growth story. For a contrarian opportunity, Grab (GRAB) is presented as a strong buy under $6 per share. Investors bullish on Ethereum (ETH) can look to buy the dip in its proxy stock BitMine (BMNR) within the $55 to $60 range. Finally, watch the momentum in former Bitcoin Miners like CleanSpark (CLSK) and Bitfarms (BITF) as they pivot to the high-demand AI data center space.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The host describes the stock as continuing its strong performance, hitting $195 and trading around $193.45 in the pre-market. The stock later breaks $195 to new all-time highs during the podcast.
  • Bullish Sentiment: The host is very excited about NVIDIA's performance, calling it the "world's largest company."
  • Analyst Upgrade: Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded their price target from $240 to $300.
    • They believe we are still in the "early investment cycle" for AI and that this is "not a bubble."
    • They project NVIDIA will secure at least 75% of the AI accelerator market.
    • They increased their 2026 and 2027 Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates to $8 and $11 respectively, which are 50% higher than Wall Street consensus. The $300 price target is based on these higher earnings estimates.
  • Key Deals & Catalysts:
    • Microsoft (MSFT) rolled out a major new Azure cluster with almost 300,000 GB300 NVIDIA chips.
    • The United Arab Emirates (UAE) approved several billion dollars worth of NVIDIA chip exports. The host notes this could grow to hundreds of billions.
    • The US Senate passed a provision requiring chip makers to prioritize American customers over China, which is seen as a positive for ensuring domestic supply.

Takeaways

  • Wall Street is starting to believe in the long-term AI growth story that CEO Jensen Huang has been promoting, leading to significant price target upgrades.
  • Demand for NVIDIA's chips from major cloud providers (like Microsoft) and sovereign nations (like the UAE) continues to be extremely strong, suggesting that the high capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is not slowing down.
  • The stock is a core driver of the AI theme. Its continued growth is seen as a positive sign for the entire ecosystem of data center and semiconductor companies.

AI & Data Center Theme

  • This is presented as the most powerful driver of the current bull market, with demand for AI computing power continuing to outstrip supply.
  • The host cites projections that $500 billion must be invested annually in data centers until 2030 to meet demand.
  • This theme is driving massive momentum in a wide range of stocks, from large-cap leaders to smaller, lesser-known companies.
  • Key Stocks Mentioned in this Theme:
    • Applied Digital (APLD): "Crushed earnings," causing the stock to jump 28%. They beat revenue estimates by 41% (up 84% year-over-year). This highlights the immense growth in smaller data center players.
    • IREN (IREN): A former Bitcoin miner that pivoted to data centers. The stock is showing massive momentum, hitting $68 and continuing to rise.
    • Nebius: Mentioned as another data center play hitting all-time highs at $135.73 and later $140. The host notes it has had a "5X move" and is difficult to buy at these levels due to its run-up.
    • CoreWeave (Private, but mentioned): Stock hit $150. They are a key partner for companies like Meta and a major player in the GPU infrastructure space.
    • Bitcoin Miners Pivoting to Data Centers: A whole group of companies are being re-rated by the market after announcing pivots to service AI compute demand. This includes CleanSpark (CLSK), Bitfarms (BITF), Marathon (MARA), Riot (RIOT), Cypher (CIFR), and TerraWolf (WULF), all of which saw significant stock price increases.

Takeaways

  • The AI infrastructure buildout is a multi-year trend creating opportunities beyond just the big names like NVIDIA.
  • Investors are rewarding any company connected to the data center space, especially those that can show real execution and earnings growth like APLD.
  • The pivot from Bitcoin mining to High-Performance Computing (HPC) is a major narrative. While the host questions if all will succeed, he notes that "they're all working" for now due to overwhelming demand.
  • Valuations for many of these stocks are stretched. The host mentions that it's hard to chase these names after their huge runs, suggesting that new investors should be cautious about entry points.

Amcor (AMKR)

  • The host discloses he is building a position, buying 2,000 shares around $30.80.
  • Bullish Thesis: The investment is a bet on the "American industrialization and onshoring of semiconductors."
    • Amcor is a global leader in outsourced semiconductor assembly, packaging, and testing (OSAT).
    • It is one of the only US-based companies that can provide these critical services at scale.
    • The company has a massive partnership with TSMC for its new Arizona fab and is building a $7 billion, 2.3 million sq. ft. campus right across the street.
    • Key executives from Apple, TSMC, and NVIDIA (Jensen Huang) provided positive quotes for a recent Amcor press release, signaling strong industry support.
  • Valuation & Price Target:
    • The host believes the stock is undervalued, trading at just 1.15x sales.
    • He has a personal price target of $50 to $60 within the next year, believing the company can double its revenues as onshoring accelerates.
    • He is also looking at $45 leap options for 2028.

Takeaways

  • Amcor is presented as an under-the-radar way to invest in the massive semiconductor trend, specifically the geopolitical push to bring manufacturing back to the US.
  • Unlike high-flying AI names, its valuation is considered reasonable, offering a better risk/reward profile according to the host.
  • This is a longer-term investment idea (6-12 months) that depends on the company executing its expansion plans and getting "re-rated" by the market as its revenue grows.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • The stock was "going to the moon," crossing $70 and hitting $73 during the podcast.
  • Bullish Catalyst: The company signed a new contract with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) for two dedicated launches in 2025 and 2026.
  • This follows other recent deals, creating strong positive momentum for the stock.
  • Valuation Concern: The host explicitly states that "Rocket Lab is not the most attractive valuation" and that its price-to-sales ratio is around 70, similar to its stock price.

Takeaways

  • Rocket Lab is executing well and signing a steady stream of new contracts, which the market is rewarding with a higher stock price.
  • The investment is based on future potential and momentum, not on current financials, which are expensive. The host notes he is not selling, but also not buying at these levels, suggesting it's a hold for current investors.

Venture Global (VG)

  • Bearish News: The stock was down 17-20% after the company lost a major arbitration case to BP.
  • Risk Factors:
    • There is a "material financial risk" and VG could be liable for damages of $1 billion or more.
    • The final court case to determine damages isn't until 2026, creating a long-term legal and financial overhang on the stock.
    • This could create broader reputational and contractual risk, making it harder to fund future projects.

Takeaways

  • The legal loss is a significant negative event for the company. The host advises caution, stating it's "not going to be fun" and compares the overhang to the DOJ lawsuit against Google.
  • This is not a "buy the dip" opportunity for investors who are not experts in the oil and gas sector, as the legal uncertainty creates significant risk.

Geopolitical Event: Trump's China Tweet & Market Impact

  • A surprise tweet from former President Trump caused a sudden and sharp market sell-off, with the S&P 500 dropping over 1.5%.
  • The News: Trump threatened a "massive increase of tariffs" on Chinese goods and suggested canceling his upcoming meeting with President Xi. This was in response to China reportedly sending letters to countries threatening to impose export controls on rare earth minerals.
  • Market Reaction:
    • An "everything dump" occurred, with major tech stocks like NVIDIA, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla falling 2-3% or more.
    • The VIX (volatility index) spiked over 20%.
    • Rare earth mineral stocks like MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) rallied on the news.
  • Host's Analysis: The host believes it is likely a "nothing burger" or posturing ahead of negotiations. However, he acknowledges the risk of escalation and advises caution.

Takeaways

  • Geopolitical news can trigger sudden, algorithm-driven sell-offs. This event served as a reminder that the market was "running hot" and vulnerable to a pullback.
  • This created a "buy the dip" opportunity, but the host suggests being cautious and not deploying all available cash, as the situation could escalate. He personally bought a small amount of Grab (GRAB) during the dip.
  • The event highlights the strategic importance of rare earth minerals. Stocks positioned to benefit from domestic production of these materials saw a significant boost.

Other Notable Mentions

  • BitMine (BMNR): A play on the price of Ethereum (ETH). The host bought the dip at $57.30, viewing the $55-$60 range as a buy zone for those bullish on Ethereum. He dismisses a recent short report on the company.
  • Grab (GRAB): The host bought the dip, viewing the price action as manipulation by short-sellers. He is a "heavy buyer under six" dollars and believes a good earnings report is needed to force the shorts to cover.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): The host took a bullish position via a $60-$90 call debit spread for Jan 2027. The thesis is that if GPU demand is high, demand for SMCI's server racks and liquid cooling technology will also be high, leading to upward revenue revisions.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): Received a price target upgrade from Needham to $170. The stock has had a strong run, and the host is not chasing it at current levels but remains bullish on its long-term growth prospects.
  • Nuclear Energy Stocks (Oklo, UUUU, LEU): This sector has been on a massive run, driven by support from the Trump administration. Oklo (OKLO) in particular has seen an "egregious" valuation jump, with a $175 price target from Canaccord that uses a DCF model out to 2050. The host missed this theme but acknowledges its incredible performance.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!