NVIDIA DESTROYS EARNINGS, THE JANE STREET LAWSUIT, WHERE DO MARKETS GO | MARKET OPEN
NVIDIA DESTROYS EARNINGS, THE JANE STREET LAWSUIT, WHERE DO MARKETS GO | MARKET OPEN
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider rotating into quality software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE), as the narrative shifts to AI enhancing their platforms rather than replacing them. While NVIDIA's (NVDA) fundamentals are historic, its range-bound stock makes a covered call strategy attractive for generating income from its volatility. A major lawsuit may have removed significant selling pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), creating a bullish catalyst for the entire crypto market. Investors should monitor Bitcoin's price action around 10:00 AM ET to see if historical price dumps have ceased. Finally, strong earnings from Celsius (CELH) and Shake Shack (SHAK) show continued consumer strength in specific growth brands.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA reported what the host described as a "demolished" earnings report, beating expectations significantly.
    • Revenue: $68.1 billion, beating estimates by $2 billion (up 73% year-over-year).
    • Data Center Revenue: Up 75% year-over-year.
    • Net Income: $42.9 billion, up 94% year-over-year.
    • Gross Margins: Maintained at 75.2%.
    • Future Guidance: The most important number for Wall Street. NVIDIA guided for approximately $80 billion in revenue for the next quarter, which implies an 82.7% year-over-year growth rate. This represents a re-acceleration of growth.
  • CEO Jensen Huang's key message was that the "agentic AI inflection point has arrived." This refers to AI that can autonomously perform tasks for you, which he believes is the next major wave of demand.
  • He argued that hyperscalers (like Google, Meta, etc.) will continue spending on NVIDIA chips because the investment generates more revenue for them. For every dollar spent, they are making multiples back.
  • Despite the phenomenal results, the stock price was down. The host suggests this could be due to broader market fears that the semiconductor cycle is peaking, and the market may need to see this level of performance for another year to truly believe it.
  • The host mentioned that using covered calls has been a "money printer" on NVIDIA for the past seven months because the stock has been volatile but range-bound, which is the ideal scenario for that strategy.
  • A bearish take from Michael Burry was mentioned, highlighting that NVIDIA's purchase commitments have ballooned to $95.2 billion, which he sees as a parallel to Cisco during the dot-com bubble.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Fundamentals: NVIDIA's business is performing at a historic level, with growth accelerating. The company is at the center of the AI revolution and is described as the "toll booth that everyone must pay."
  • Bearish on Price Action: The market is not rewarding the company's performance, with the stock falling after the report. This suggests that investor sentiment is cautious, and the stock may remain stuck in a range or face downward pressure in the short term.
  • Long-Term Potential: The host mentioned a long-term bull case for the stock reaching a $10 trillion market cap if the "agentic revolution" plays out as Jensen Huang predicts.
  • Consider the Risk: The market's main fear is that the massive spending on AI chips by big tech companies is a cycle that will eventually end, which would hurt NVIDIA's growth. The stock's performance is also tied to the broader market (S&P 500).

Software & SaaS Sector (IGV)

  • A major theme from NVIDIA's earnings call was that software is not dead.
  • CEO Jensen Huang made a strong case that AI "agents" will not replace software companies like ServiceNow (NOW) or Salesforce (CRM). Instead, these agents will use existing software tools to perform tasks, which could actually increase the usage and value of these tools.
  • He used the analogy of a future household robot: the robot won't invent a new microwave; it will simply learn to use the existing microwave. Similarly, AI agents will use existing software.
  • The market appeared to react positively to this narrative. On the day of the recording, there was a clear rotation where semiconductor stocks (like NVDA, AMD, AVGO) were selling off, while SaaS stocks (CRM, NOW, ADBE) were rallying.

Takeaways

  • Potential Bottom: The narrative that AI will destroy traditional software companies may be overblown. Jensen Huang's comments provide a strong counter-argument that could signal that the SaaS sector is near a bottom.
  • Rotation Play: Investors may be moving money out of high-flying semiconductor stocks and into beaten-down software stocks, looking for the next area of growth.
  • Look for Quality: The host suggests that while the sector may be turning, it's important to focus on quality names. Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), and ServiceNow (NOW) were mentioned as attractive.

Bitcoin (BTC) & The Crypto Market

  • A major lawsuit against the trading firm Jane Street could have significant positive implications for the crypto market.
  • For years, traders have observed a pattern called the "10:30 slam," where crypto prices mysteriously dump around 10:00 AM ET.
  • The lawsuit alleges that Jane Street was manipulating the market by buying spot Bitcoin, opening massive short positions, and then using algorithms to trigger panic selling to profit from the crash. They would then buy back the cheaper Bitcoin and repeat the process.
  • Since the lawsuit was filed, the host notes that the 10:00 AM dump has stopped, and Bitcoin had one of its best days in months, with $506 million flowing into Bitcoin ETFs.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Catalyst: If the alleged market manipulation by Jane Street stops, a major source of artificial selling pressure could be removed from the crypto market.
  • Improved Sentiment: This could lead to improved sentiment and allow the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to reflect their true demand more accurately, especially from institutional ETF buyers.
  • Watch the Clock: Investors should watch crypto price action around 10:00 AM ET in the coming days and weeks to see if the "slam" pattern has truly disappeared.

Other Stocks of Interest

  • Salesforce (CRM)

    • The company is taking aggressive steps to boost its stock, including a massive $50 billion share buyback program.
    • However, the host views these moves as "desperate" and is concerned about the company's slowing growth (guiding for 10%).
    • Takeaway: The stock appears undervalued, but it's unclear if a buyback will be enough to change the negative sentiment until the growth story improves.
  • Celsius (CELH)

    • The energy drink company "crushed" its earnings, with the stock jumping 16% in the pre-market.
    • EPS and Revenue were up 90% and 117% year-over-year, respectively.
    • Takeaway: Strong execution and growth, showing that its partnership with Pepsi and acquisition of Alani Nu are paying off.
  • EOSC (Eose Energy Enterprises)

    • The stock plummeted over 30% after a "bad quarter," missing earnings and revenue estimates significantly.
    • It was mentioned as a cautionary tale of a high-multiple stock (trading at 50 times sales) that gets severely punished for any misstep.
    • Takeaway: A reminder of the risks of investing in speculative, high-valuation "theme" stocks. Owning the "picks and shovels" leader like NVIDIA is often a safer way to play a trend than betting on smaller, unproven companies.
  • Shake Shack (SHAK)

    • The stock rose 10% after beating earnings expectations.
    • Revenue was up 22% year-over-year.
    • Takeaway: A positive sign for the fast-casual restaurant, showing a strong recovery after getting hit hard over the summer.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!