NVIDIA ALL TIME HIGHS, CHINA IS BUYING SOYBEANS, FOMC MEETING, BIG TECH EARNINGS | MARKET OPEN
NVIDIA ALL TIME HIGHS, CHINA IS BUYING SOYBEANS, FOMC MEETING, BIG TECH EARNINGS | MARKET OPEN
192 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The massive AI data center build-out is the dominant investment theme, with Google (GOOGL) signaling huge future spending after a record-breaking quarter. Consider the post-earnings dip in Meta Platforms (META) as a buying opportunity, as the drop was due to a one-time tax charge while underlying revenue growth remains strong. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a core holding, with its own revenue forecast far exceeding Wall Street's expectations and a potential catalyst from re-entering the China market. Palantir (PLTR) has been significantly de-risked by its major partnership with NVIDIA, making it a compelling, high-growth AI software investment. With analyst price targets of $28 and $35, SoFi (SOFI) presents an opportunity as it is expected to be a key beneficiary of anticipated Fed rate cuts.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The company's market cap surpassed $5 trillion, with the stock price breaking through $200 and reaching as high as $212. The sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish.
  • CEO Jensen Huang announced a $500 billion revenue opportunity for NVIDIA over the next five quarters. This is $120 billion more than Wall Street analysts had expected and notably excludes any potential revenue from China.
  • There is geopolitical optimism around the company. Former President Trump mentioned he would discuss NVIDIA's Blackwell chips with Chinese President Xi. This was followed by news of China buying a large amount of U.S. soybeans, which is interpreted as a goodwill gesture that could lead to the lifting of restrictions on NVIDIA selling chips to China.
  • NVIDIA announced a major partnership with Palantir (PLTR), with Jensen Huang calling Palantir's software the "single most important enterprise stack in the world."
  • Other strategic investments and partnerships include a $1 billion investment in Nokia (NOK) and partnerships with Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Uber (UBER).
  • Jensen Huang stated he does not believe the market is in an AI bubble, citing the fundamental technological shift to accelerated computing and the clear return on investment (ROI) companies are seeing from AI.

Takeaways

  • NVIDIA is at the center of the AI boom, and its own financial projections are significantly higher than the market's, suggesting the stock could still be undervalued if the company executes.
  • The potential for re-entering the Chinese market represents a massive, unpriced catalyst. Any positive news from the talks between Trump and Xi could be very bullish for the stock.
  • The company is solidifying its dominance not just through its own technology but by creating a powerful ecosystem of partners, making it a core holding for investors who want exposure to the AI theme.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock hit a new all-time high, breaking through $193 and reaching as high as $198. The sentiment is very bullish.
  • The primary catalyst was the announcement of a major partnership with NVIDIA. The endorsement from NVIDIA's CEO, who called Palantir's software stack the "most important in the world," is seen as a massive validation of its technology.
  • The speaker believes Palantir is the fastest-growing company in the AI space, with 50% growth, and that this growth justifies its high valuation.

Takeaways

  • The NVIDIA partnership is a significant de-risking event and a powerful endorsement that could attract more enterprise customers.
  • Despite a high valuation, the company's rapid growth and strategic position as a key software layer in the AI ecosystem make it a compelling, albeit aggressive, investment.
  • The speaker suggests that waiting until after the next earnings report before considering selling could be a prudent strategy, given the strong momentum.

Google (GOOGL)

  • The stock hit all-time highs, trading at $273 before earnings and surging to $295 after hours. The sentiment is extremely bullish.
  • Google reported its first-ever $100 billion revenue quarter.
  • It delivered a 26% beat on Earnings Per Share (EPS) and a $2 billion beat on revenue.
  • Google Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 34%, with operating margins expanding significantly from 17.1% to 23.7%.
  • The company increased its full-year CapEx (Capital Expenditure) guidance to $91-$93 billion, up from a previous estimate of $85 billion. This signals massive continued investment in AI infrastructure.
  • The Gemini app now has over 650 million monthly active users, up from 450 million three months prior.

Takeaways

  • Google is firing on all cylinders, with strong growth in its core Search business and accelerating, profitable growth in its Cloud division.
  • The significant increase in planned CapEx spending is a strong bullish signal for the entire AI supply chain, especially chip companies.
  • The narrative that AI would "kill" Google Search appears to be incorrect; in fact, AI-powered features are driving more query growth. The stock's strong performance reflects this reality.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The stock was trading around $747 before earnings and dropped to as low as $695 after hours.
  • The company reported a headline miss on EPS by 84%. However, this was due to a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of $15.9 billion.
  • Excluding the tax charge, Meta would have beaten EPS estimates by about 10% ($7.25 vs. $6.67 estimate).
  • Revenue growth was very strong, up 26% year-over-year.
  • The company guided for "notably larger" CapEx dollar growth in 2026 compared to 2025, signaling aggressive investment in AI compute.

Takeaways

  • The after-hours drop appears to be an overreaction by algorithms to the headline EPS miss. The underlying business fundamentals, particularly ad revenue growth, remain very strong.
  • This could present a buying opportunity for investors who understand the one-time nature of the tax charge.
  • Meta's commitment to massively increasing its AI infrastructure spending is another strong indicator of the durability of the AI investment cycle.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • The stock dropped about 4% after hours, falling below $520.
  • Microsoft beat EPS estimates by 13% and slightly beat on revenue.
  • Azure (cloud) revenue growth was 49%, which is very strong but may have been slightly below the market's highest "whisper number" expectations.
  • Guidance for the next quarter's revenue was slightly below what some analysts were hoping for.
  • The company also took a $3.5 billion charge related to its investment in OpenAI.

Takeaways

  • Microsoft delivered a solid quarter, but the market reaction suggests it was priced for absolute perfection, which it didn't quite deliver on guidance.
  • The dip could be a buying opportunity, as the company's cloud growth remains robust and its position in AI is secure. The discussion noted that its backlog (RPO) grew over 50%, indicating strong future revenue.

Investment Theme: AI & Data Center Infrastructure

  • This was the dominant theme of the podcast. There is a massive capital expenditure (CapEx) cycle underway.
  • Google, Microsoft, and Meta all signaled significant increases in their CapEx for 2026 to build out AI infrastructure.
  • Amazon is laying off 14,000 employees, which the podcast speculates is to free up capital to buy GPUs to service a $195 billion AWS backlog. They are also building an $11 billion data center in a former cornfield.
  • NVIDIA's guidance of a $500 billion opportunity underscores the scale of this build-out.
  • Smaller companies are also benefiting:
    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Is expanding into the U.S. federal market to build AI servers.
    • CleanSpark (CLSK): Acquired more land and power in Texas for AI data center deployment.

Takeaways

  • The AI infrastructure build-out is real, massive, and appears to be accelerating. This is a multi-year trend.
  • Investors can gain exposure through multiple avenues:
    • Chip Designers: NVIDIA (NVDA) is the primary beneficiary.
    • Cloud Providers (Hyperscalers): Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are both investing heavily and benefiting from AI-driven demand.
    • Ecosystem Plays: Companies that build servers (SMCI) or operate data centers (CLSK, IREN) are direct derivatives of this spending.

Fiserv (FI) & The Payments Sector

  • Fiserv (FI) stock was down 40% after a major miss on earnings and a significant reduction in its future guidance.
  • This negative news weighed on the entire payments sector, including Shift4 Payments (FOUR) and PayPal (PYPL), which gave back most of its gains from the previous day.
  • The podcast speculates that a major headwind for these traditional payment companies is the rise of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as a payment method.
  • Companies like Western Union (WU) and SoFi (SOFI) are mentioned as adapting by integrating stablecoins.

Takeaways

  • The traditional payments sector is facing significant disruption. Fiserv's poor results are a major red flag for the industry.
  • Investors in this space should be cautious and monitor how companies are adapting to new technologies like stablecoins. Companies that fail to innovate may continue to underperform.

Other Stocks & Opportunities

  • Amazon (AMZN): The podcast is bullish, citing its $5 billion investment in a South Korean data center and its aggressive moves to fund GPU purchases for AWS. A long-term price of $300 is mentioned as a possibility.
  • FuboTV (FUBO): The stock was up over 20% on the official completion of its merger with Disney's Hulu Plus Live TV. This is a major positive catalyst.
  • SoFi (SOFI): Received analyst price target upgrades to $28 and $35. The company is seen as a key beneficiary of the Fed's new rate-cutting cycle.
  • Caterpillar (CAT): The stock was up over 5% after beating earnings. It is increasingly seen as a play on the data center build-out, as it provides heavy machinery for construction.
  • Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH): Described as a "disappointment" recently, with money potentially rotating into AI stocks. However, the expected Fed rate cuts could provide a future catalyst. BitMine (BMNR) is mentioned as a proxy for Ethereum (ETH).
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!