NONFARM PAYROLLS, THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, FINAL DAY OF STOCKS FOR THIS WEEK  | MARKET OPEN
NONFARM PAYROLLS, THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, FINAL DAY OF STOCKS FOR THIS WEEK | MARKET OPEN
310 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube4 hr 20 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

NVIDIA (NVDA) is presented as a must-own leader in the AI revolution, with a plausible path toward a $4 trillion market cap. The recent dip in UnitedHealth (UNH) is framed as a clear buying opportunity for a high-quality, undervalued company, with the main risk to monitor being a DOJ investigation. Investors should consider Ethereum (ETH) as it is positioned to be the primary beneficiary of the expected multi-trillion dollar growth in the stablecoin market. For a more direct "picks and shovels" play on this theme, Circle (CRCL) is highlighted as the key, institutionally-backed stablecoin provider. Finally, Robinhood (HOOD) is viewed as a primary vehicle for the "tokenization of everything" trend, making recent pullbacks a potential entry point.

Detailed Analysis

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock hit $100 during the trading day but did not close at that level. The host views this as a significant milestone.
  • The host purchased 100 shares at $100 "for the culture."
  • Tom Lee of Fundstrat reportedly has very positive things to say about Robinhood, and it is now the #1 position in his "Granny Shots ETF" due to its recent growth.
  • Controversy: Robinhood offered tokenized versions of private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX to European customers. OpenAI released a statement saying they did not partner with or endorse this.
    • The host believes this is not a major issue. He explains that tokenization is the future of finance, allowing global investors to get exposure to assets without directly owning traditional shares.
    • He compares it to how Robinhood offers tokens for public stocks like Amazon, where Robinhood buys and holds the actual share on the backend to back the token one-to-one.
    • For OpenAI, Robinhood likely acquired equity through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to back the tokens.
    • The host sees this as a move to democratize finance and believes OpenAI (and other companies) cannot stop their assets from being tokenized on blockchains.
  • S&P 500 Inclusion: Robinhood was not selected for inclusion in the S&P 500 this time. A vacant spot was filled by Datadog (DDOG) instead. The host hopes for inclusion in September.
  • The stock was down slightly after its big run-up, which the host sees as normal and healthy profit-taking.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The overall sentiment is very bullish, driven by the belief in its tokenization strategy, which could unlock global growth and liquidity.
  • Catalysts: Future inclusion in the S&P 500 remains a potential catalyst. The expansion of tokenized private assets could attract more international users.
  • Actionable Insight: The host views the sell-off after hitting $100 as a healthy "breather." The controversy around OpenAI's tokenization is seen as a misunderstanding of the technology by the public and a non-issue for the long-term thesis. Investors bullish on the "tokenization of everything" theme may see Robinhood as a primary vehicle for this trend.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock hit a new all-time high, breaking through the $160 level during the podcast. The next major resistance level mentioned is $160, with nearly 1 million shares of sell orders.
  • Bullish Catalyst: The U.S. lifted some chip software restrictions on China as part of a trade truce, which is seen as a positive for NVIDIA and other semiconductor companies like AMD.
  • The host believes NVIDIA is the clear leader and a "must-own" for anyone bullish on AI. He notes its forward P/E ratio of 39 is cheaper than companies like Netflix, despite having much higher growth.
  • The host mentions that a price of $162 would push NVIDIA's market cap to $4 trillion.
  • Tom Lee's upcoming podcast interview will reportedly explain why institutions were forced to sell NVIDIA while retail investors stepped in and benefited from the rally.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Extremely bullish. NVIDIA is presented as the undisputed leader in the AI revolution, with its stock price reflecting its dominance and massive earnings growth.
  • Valuation: Despite its high price, the host argues it's still reasonably valued compared to other large-cap tech stocks when factoring in its immense growth rate.
  • Actionable Insight: NVIDIA is seen as the core "picks and shovels" play for the entire AI industry, including future growth areas like robotics and self-driving cars (beyond Tesla). Any dip is presented as a buying opportunity. The path to a $4 trillion market cap is viewed as highly plausible.

Ethereum (ETH) & Related Plays

This section covers Ethereum and companies discussed as ways to gain exposure to its ecosystem.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The host interviewed Tom Lee, who is very bullish on Ethereum.
  • Thesis: Tom Lee believes stablecoins (digital dollars) are the "ChatGPT of crypto" and are set to grow from a ~$250 billion market to a $2 trillion market.
  • Since most stablecoin transactions and their associated "gas fees" happen on the Ethereum network, Ethereum is positioned to be the primary beneficiary of this massive growth.
  • While other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Solana have had huge runs, Ethereum has not, suggesting it may be next.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • This is an "Ethereum treasury" company that Tom Lee is associated with as chairman. It essentially holds Ethereum and earns yield, similar to how MicroStrategy holds Bitcoin.
  • The stock experienced a massive, parabolic run, going from $4 to over $160 in a matter of days after Tom Lee's association and thesis became public.
  • The host describes this as the "Tom Lee effect" and an example of extreme greed and momentum in the market.

Circle (CRCL)

  • Circle is the company behind the USDC stablecoin.
  • Tom Lee is reportedly very bullish on Circle as a company, viewing it as the key, trusted infrastructure for the stablecoin revolution.
  • He believes Wall Street prefers Circle over competitors like Tether due to its status as a public, regulated company.
  • The host mentioned that Circle's successful IPO helped some fund managers "make their year" after they had missed the broader market rally, suggesting strong institutional support.

Takeaways

  • Investment Theme: The core theme is that the next major growth cycle in crypto will be driven by the utility of stablecoins, with Ethereum as the foundational layer.
  • Actionable Insight:
    • ETH: For investors who believe in the stablecoin thesis, holding Ethereum directly is the most straightforward way to get exposure.
    • BMNR: This is a high-risk, high-reward leveraged play on Ethereum, driven by the "Tom Lee effect." It is extremely volatile and subject to speculative momentum. The host did not buy, citing the risk of chasing such a massive run-up.
    • Circle (CRCL): This is presented as a more traditional, "picks and shovels" investment in the stablecoin theme. It's the institutional choice for stablecoin infrastructure.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Deliveries: Delivery numbers were better than the "whisper number" (the unofficial analyst expectation), which was a positive surprise. This may lead to better-than-feared earnings.
  • European Sales: Sales in Europe, particularly Germany (down 60% year-over-year), are very weak. The host suggests this could be due to brand image issues.
  • Market Perception: The host argues that the market and retail investors "just don't care anymore" about the automotive metrics. The belief is that Tesla is "way more than a car company."
  • Robotics Delay: News of a delay in the Optimus robotics program is seen as bearish but not critical to the current stock price, as the market's focus is on Full Self-Driving (FSD) and RoboTaxi.
  • RoboTaxi Skepticism: After a trip to New York City, the host expressed personal skepticism about the timeline for RoboTaxi, stating it could take "a lot more time than people are thinking" for the technology to handle complex urban environments.
  • Tom Lee's View: The host teased that Tom Lee shared a "revolutionary" and "very bullish" way of thinking about Tesla that will be revealed in his upcoming podcast. This new perspective can also be applied to other outlier companies like Palantir.

Takeaways

  • Mixed Sentiment: The discussion reflects a tug-of-war. The automotive business shows signs of weakness (Europe), but the market is focused on the long-term AI/robotics narrative.
  • Actionable Insight: Investing in Tesla is a bet on its long-term vision for FSD, RoboTaxi, and Optimus, not its current car sales. The stock may remain volatile as the market weighs near-term automotive results against the long-term, high-potential projects. The host's skepticism on the RoboTaxi timeline suggests investors should be prepared for a long wait for this thesis to play out.

Weebull (WEBL)

  • This was presented as a stock pick by a recurring guest, Chris.
  • Bull Thesis: The core idea is that Weebull is a "mini Robinhood." As a smaller brokerage with a $5-7 billion market cap (compared to Robinhood's ~$90B), it has significant room to run if the bull market continues and trading volumes increase.
  • It has a growing international presence in markets where Robinhood is not yet available.
  • The company just went public via a de-SPAC and is launching new features like a premium tier and relaunching crypto trading in the U.S., which could be catalysts.
  • Bear Case / Concerns: The host noted that Weebull's Q1 earnings showed much slower growth in trading volumes (+15% in equities, +8% in options) compared to Robinhood's explosive growth.
  • The host bought 1,000 shares, partly due to FOMO ("fear of missing out") and not wanting his friend Chris to be right without him, but also acknowledging the "mini Robinhood" thesis has merit in a strong bull market.

Takeaways

  • Speculative Bullish: Weebull is a speculative bet on the continuation of the retail trading boom.
  • Actionable Insight: This is a higher-risk play than Robinhood. The investment case relies on the idea that a rising tide (bull market) will lift all boats, and as a smaller boat, Weebull could see a higher percentage gain. Investors should watch for acceleration in user and volume growth in upcoming earnings reports to validate the thesis.

UnitedHealth (UNH) & Oscar Health (OSCR)

  • Both stocks took a significant dip due to the "Big Beautiful Bill" passing, which has ramifications for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and its subsidies.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH):
    • A guest bought $15 million worth of UNH on the dip.
    • The host sees UNH as "ridiculously undervalued" and believes it can "weather the storm" from policy changes.
    • A conservative valuation model presented suggests a stock price of $450 by 2030, even with a much lower P/E multiple, due to strong EPS growth.
    • The biggest risk mentioned is a DOJ investigation. If that risk is removed, the stock is seen as a deep value play.
  • Oscar Health (OSCR):
    • The stock got "destroyed," falling around 20%.
    • As a smaller company, it is seen as more vulnerable to the negative impacts of the bill than a giant like UNH.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on UNH: The dip in UNH is framed as a clear buying opportunity for a high-quality, undervalued company.
  • Cautious on OSCR: Oscar is a much riskier way to play the healthcare space, as it's more sensitive to legislative changes. The recent drop highlights this risk.
  • Actionable Insight: For investors looking for a value play in the healthcare sector, UNH is presented as a compelling choice, with the recent dip providing a better entry point. The primary risk to monitor is the status of the DOJ investigation.

Other Stocks & Themes

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Mentioned multiple times in the context of other stocks.
  • Tom Lee's "revolutionary" thesis on Tesla is said to be applicable to Palantir as well.
  • Tom Lee reportedly "actually knows Palantir" and understands its unique business model, which he will discuss in the upcoming podcast.
  • Takeaway: The sentiment is bullish, with anticipation for Tom Lee's insights potentially providing a new framework for valuing the company.

Momentum & Speculative Plays

  • Big Bear AI (BBAI) & IREN (IREN): These stocks have seen huge runs. The host is personally cautious and skeptical, suggesting much of the move is hype and momentum rather than fundamentals he fully understands. He prefers to avoid "chasing" these names. IREN is noted for buying more NVIDIA GPUs and being viewed as an AI hyperscaler play, not just a Bitcoin miner.
  • D-Wave (QBTS): A quantum computing stock that received a $20 price target from Cantor Fitzgerald, causing it to rally. This is another high-risk, speculative area.
  • Takeaway: These are high-risk trades. The host advises listeners to understand if they are investing for the long-term or simply riding short-term momentum, and to be prepared for high volatility.

Macro & Market View

  • Non-Farm Payrolls: The report showed much stronger job growth than expected. However, about half of the gains came from government jobs, not the private sector, making it a "mixed report."
  • Fed Rate Cuts: The strong jobs report makes a July rate cut highly unlikely (probabilities dropped from 25% to 4%). A September cut is still seen as the most likely scenario.
  • "Big Beautiful Bill": The bill is expected to be signed into law on July 4th. It is seen as pro-business and pro-growth, which could be contributing to the market's rally. The main concern was deficit spending, but the market seems to believe economic growth will offset it.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - Payrolls 32:00 - Tokenization 44:00 - Market Open 1:20:58 - Jobs 1:45:30 - Kris Joins 2:35:00 - Jose Joins 3:10:49 - Bessent Live 4:08:35 - Tom Lee
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!