NON FARM PAYROLLS, WHAT DOES THE SUPREME COURT DO ON TARIFFS, $200B OF QE | MARKET OPEN
NON FARM PAYROLLS, WHAT DOES THE SUPREME COURT DO ON TARIFFS, $200B OF QE | MARKET OPEN
120 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider housing stocks like Opendoor (OPEN) and Rocket Mortgage (RKT), which are direct beneficiaries of a new $200 billion government stimulus designed to lower mortgage rates. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is a strong buy after partnering with Amazon Pharmacy to expand distribution for its popular weight-loss drug, Wegovy. For a long-term play on AI infrastructure, look into nuclear energy stocks like Oklo (OKLO) and Vistra (VST), which recently signed power agreements with Meta. Zeta Global (ZETA) presents a value opportunity in software, trading at a significant discount to peers while growing at over 30%. Finally, exercise caution with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), as recent momentum has stalled and the rally appears to be losing steam.

Detailed Analysis

Housing Sector (OPEN, RKT)

  • A major announcement was made by the Trump administration to instruct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
  • This action is essentially a form of Quantitative Easing (QE) specifically for the housing market.
  • The stated goal is to artificially drive down mortgage rates, making home ownership more affordable.
  • This news caused a significant rally in housing-related stocks.
    • Opendoor (OPEN) was up over 16%.
    • Rocket Mortgage (RKT) was up over 5%.

Takeaways

  • This government intervention is a powerful bullish catalyst for the housing sector. It could stimulate the housing market even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates soon.
  • Stocks like Opendoor (OPEN) and Rocket Mortgage (RKT) are direct beneficiaries of any policy that successfully lowers mortgage rates and increases housing market activity.
  • This move is seen as part of a broader strategy by the administration to boost the economy and consumer well-being ahead of the midterm elections.

Nuclear Energy Sector (OKLO, VST, SMR)

  • The nuclear energy sector saw a surge in interest after Meta (META) signed nuclear power agreements to meet the massive energy demands of its AI data centers.
  • Oklo (OKLO) signed a prepay agreement with Meta for a project targeted for 2030, causing its stock to jump 17%.
    • The podcast host notes that while Oklo is a "narrative stock" without current earnings, a deal with a major hyperscaler like Meta fundamentally changes the story and adds legitimacy.
  • Vistra (VST) also signed a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Meta, and its stock also rose 17%.
  • Other nuclear-related stocks like NuScale Power (SMR) and Constellation Energy (CEG) also saw positive momentum.

Takeaways

  • The immense power consumption of AI data centers is creating a new and significant demand driver for nuclear energy, which is seen as a reliable, carbon-free power source.
  • This is a long-term bullish theme. Deals with tech giants like Meta provide validation for the industry and a potential roadmap to future revenue.
  • Investors interested in the AI boom can look to the nuclear energy sector as a "picks and shovels" play on the infrastructure needed to power it.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel's stock was up 8-9% during the session.
  • The rally was attributed to a tweet from President Trump about a "great meeting" with Intel's CEO, highlighting a deal that brings "tens of billions of dollars" and leading-edge chip manufacturing back to America.
  • The speaker shared a personal thesis that the administration, and even competitor NVIDIA (which owns a multi-billion dollar stake in Intel), will not let Intel fail due to its strategic importance to the U.S.

Takeaways

  • Intel is benefiting from strong political tailwinds related to the on-shoring of semiconductor manufacturing.
  • The perception of government and major corporate backing provides a bullish narrative for the stock, suggesting a potential safety net against failure.
  • This makes Intel a narrative-driven investment, where political support is as important as financial fundamentals.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Despite a strong market, NVIDIA's stock was struggling to stay green, flipping between red and green throughout the session.
  • There's a discussion about "AI fatigue" and whether the market is rotating out of mega-caps like NVIDIA into other high-growth areas.
  • CEO Jensen Huang was quoted from an interview where he argued strongly that we are not in an AI bubble.
    • He frames AI as a fundamental shift from general-purpose computing to "accelerated computing," which is necessary for countless industries beyond just chatbots, including drug discovery, financial services, and automotive.
    • He refers to data centers as "AI factories" and believes the total addressable market is a slice of the $100 trillion global GDP.

Takeaways

  • In the short term, NVIDIA's stock performance is being watched as a key indicator. If the market can rally without NVIDIA leading, it may signal a broader rotation into other sectors.
  • The long-term bullish case remains intact. The company's CEO makes a compelling case that AI is a foundational technology shift, not a fleeting trend, with massive growth potential still ahead.
  • Investors should be aware of the "rotation" narrative but also consider the fundamental strength and vision laid out by the company's leadership.

Zeta Global (ZETA)

  • The speaker disclosed a personal position in Zeta and expressed a bullish view.
  • The primary bull case is valuation. Zeta is described as a cheap Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) company, trading at around 4 times price-to-sales, whereas most SaaS peers trade between 15-20 times sales.
  • The company is growing at over 30% and is on the verge of profitability. The speaker likes the CEO, David Steinberg, and believes the company will continue to "beat and raise" earnings expectations.

Takeaways

  • Zeta is presented as a potential value investment in an often-expensive software sector.
  • While it lacks a "sexy" narrative like AI or space, its strong financial performance and discounted valuation could lead to a significant stock re-rating if it continues to execute.
  • This is a play for investors who prioritize fundamentals and valuation over thematic hype.

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

  • Novo Nordisk stock was up over 3% after announcing a partnership with Amazon Pharmacy.
  • The deal will allow for the delivery of its popular weight-loss drug, Wegovy, directly to customers in all 50 states.
  • This news was seen as a negative for competitors in the space, with Hims & Hers (HIMS) stock falling on the day.

Takeaways

  • This is a significant bullish development for Novo Nordisk. Partnering with Amazon dramatically expands its distribution capabilities for a blockbuster drug.
  • This move could accelerate sales growth and solidify Novo's market leadership in the weight-loss drug category.

Cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH)

  • The momentum in the crypto market has stalled. Bitcoin (BTC) was trading down, falling from its recent highs near $94,000 to around $90,000.
  • The excitement from earlier in the week was described as "completely gone."
  • There is skepticism about extremely bullish long-term price targets, such as a $22,000 base case for Ethereum (ETH) by 2030.
  • The discussion touched on the possibility of an upcoming "crypto winter," a prolonged period of stagnant or declining prices.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment for crypto has turned cautious to bearish in the short term. The rally appears to be losing steam.
  • Investors in crypto and crypto-related stocks (like miners) should be aware of the potential for a "crypto winter" and the risk that BTC and ETH may not reach new all-time highs in this cycle.

General Market Insights & Themes

  • "Run it Hot" Economy: The combination of strong labor market data (unemployment at 4.4% vs 4.5% expected) and aggressive government stimulus (like the MBS purchase plan) suggests a policy of keeping the economy "running hot." This is generally bullish for stocks, particularly high-growth and cyclical names.
  • High-Beta Rally: The market is currently favoring riskier, high-growth ("high beta") stocks. This includes themes like space (ASTS, RKLB), quantum computing (QBTS), and AI-related infrastructure. While the speaker notes it's risky, he also suggests it's difficult to fight the trend.
  • Supreme Court Tariff Decision: The anticipated decision on tariffs was delayed until Wednesday, January 14th.
    • Retail stocks that would benefit from tariff removal (Nike, Lululemon, e.l.f. Beauty) initially rallied and then sold off when the decision was postponed.
    • The delay removes a major source of potential negative volatility for the market in the short term, which may have contributed to the day's rally. The new date will be a key event to watch.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!