NEO CLOUDS UP, NVIDIA DEMAND STRONG, MONGO DB EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
NEO CLOUDS UP, NVIDIA DEMAND STRONG, MONGO DB EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
159 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 44 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Analyst Dan Ives suggests investors "triple down" on Palantir (PLTR) during its current pullback, citing a long-term price target of $200-$250 based on its leadership in enterprise AI. The recent drop in Shopify (SHOP) stock may be a buying opportunity, as it contradicts the company's record-breaking 25% year-over-year sales growth on Black Friday. Given that customer demand for NVIDIA (NVDA) products continues to outstrip supply, any stock weakness could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors. For those with a higher risk tolerance, the drop in Iren (IREN) on financing news could be a chance to invest in the NeoCloud theme at a discount. Finally, a significant future catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching as Vanguard prepares to offer spot Bitcoin ETFs to its vast client base.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The host discussed CEO Jensen Huang's response to competition from Google's TPU, where Jensen emphasized that NVIDIA's technology is more versatile and can address much broader markets beyond just chatbots due to its CUDA architecture.
  • NVIDIA is making a $2 billion equity investment in Synopsys (SNPS), a partnership Jensen believes is a "huge opportunity" to reinvent the electronic design automation (EDA) industry.
  • A Morgan Stanley analyst note was highlighted as very bullish:
    • The firm's checks in Asia show that customers' biggest anxiety is their ability to get enough NVIDIA products, not concerns about an "AI bubble."
    • The note stated a belief that NVIDIA will "have the best economics for most applications is unwavering."
    • They estimate NVIDIA's data center revenue is roughly 14 times that of Google's TPU revenue.
  • Analyst Dan Ives views NVIDIA's strategic investments as an "AI arms race," stating that for every dollar they invest, they are getting back $8 to $10. He believes NVIDIA is the one chip fueling the AI revolution and doesn't see that slowing down.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment around NVIDIA in the podcast is overwhelmingly bullish.
  • Despite market fears of an AI bubble or competition, demand from actual customers remains incredibly strong, potentially outstripping supply. This suggests fundamental strength.
  • NVIDIA's strategy of investing in key partners like Synopsys is seen as a smart move to solidify its ecosystem and create future growth opportunities, not as a risky "circular financing" scheme.
  • Investors might consider periods of market fear or negative sentiment as buying opportunities, given the strong underlying demand reported by analysts.

MongoDB (MDB)

  • The company reported a massive earnings beat after the market close, causing the stock to surge over 15% in after-hours trading.
  • Q3 Earnings Beat:
    • EPS: $1.32 (beat expectations of $0.79 by 67%)
    • Revenue: $628 million (beat expectations of $593 million)
  • Strong Future Guidance:
    • The company significantly raised its forecast for Q4 revenue and earnings, well above analyst expectations.
  • The CEO stated that this exceptional growth was driven by their core business and strength in their Atlas platform, and that AI is still an early, though encouraging, tailwind.

Takeaways

  • MongoDB demonstrated exceptional financial performance, with strong beats on both earnings and revenue, coupled with very strong guidance for the future.
  • The fact that this growth is coming from its core business, with AI still to become a major contributor, suggests there could be significant future upside as AI adoption accelerates.
  • The stock's powerful after-hours reaction indicates the market was very impressed by these results, reinforcing its position as a leader in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) space.

Credo Technology Group (CRDO)

  • Credo also reported a very strong quarter, with its stock jumping over 11% after hours. The company provides high-speed connectivity solutions for data centers.
  • Q2 Earnings Beat:
    • EPS: $0.67 (beat expectations of $0.50 by 34%)
    • Revenue: $268 million (beat expectations of $234 million)
  • Explosive Growth:
    • Revenue grew an astonishing 272% year-over-year.
    • EPS grew 857% year-over-year.
  • The CEO attributed the record results to the "continued build-out of the world's largest AI training and inference clusters," directly linking their success to the AI boom.

Takeaways

  • Credo's earnings confirm that the AI data center build-out is a powerful tailwind for companies in the semiconductor and connectivity space.
  • The incredible year-over-year growth in both revenue and profit suggests that demand from AI is translating directly into massive financial gains for key suppliers.
  • This is a strong signal that the "picks and shovels" of the AI revolution, like high-speed connectors, are experiencing booming demand, reinforcing the bullish case for the broader AI infrastructure theme.

NeoClouds (IREN, NBS)

  • This is an investment theme focused on companies building AI data centers, often seen as a direct play on NVIDIA GPU demand.
  • Nebius (NBS):
    • The stock was up 7% on the day to $101 following an analyst upgrade.
    • The host is personally invested and bullish on management's vision to become a diversified AI cloud, not just a data center operator.
  • Iren (IREN):
    • The stock dropped about 7% in after-hours trading.
    • Reason: The company announced it was raising $2 billion via convertible notes to refinance existing debt.
    • The host believes the market overreacted, as these are capital-intensive businesses and raising funds is necessary for growth. He suggests the negative reaction might be temporary.
  • Risk Factor: Prominent short-seller Jim Chanos has raised alarms about this sector, calling them "loss-making entities" that have borrowed heavily using GPUs as collateral, which could lead to defaults.

Takeaways

  • The "NeoCloud" space offers a high-growth, high-volatility way to invest in the AI infrastructure build-out.
  • These stocks are highly sensitive to company-specific news, such as financing deals. IREN's drop on dilution news shows that investors should be prepared for volatility and understand the capital-intensive nature of the business.
  • There is a clear bull vs. bear debate. Bulls (like the host and Dan Ives) see them as essential infrastructure players, while bears (like Jim Chanos) see a risky debt-fueled bubble. Investors need to decide which narrative they believe.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Crypto Stocks (MSTR, HOOD)

  • Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop, falling from $91,000 to as low as $83,000. The sell-off was partly blamed on macroeconomic fears related to rising bond yields in Japan.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR):
    • The stock was hit by Bitcoin's decline.
    • The company's CEO admitted they could theoretically sell Bitcoin as a "last resort" if needed, a statement required for legal disclaimers but one that can still spook investors.
    • To avoid this, MSTR raised $1.5 billion to create a reserve fund to pay dividends and interest, shoring up its financial position.
  • Robinhood (HOOD):
    • The stock was down 4%, likely due to its exposure to crypto trading revenues.
    • Bullish Catalyst: The host highlighted that Vanguard, with $11 trillion in assets, will begin allowing its customers to access spot Bitcoin ETFs. This could be a significant source of new demand for Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The crypto market remains highly volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic news, as shown by the reaction to Japanese bond yields.
  • Stocks with heavy Bitcoin exposure, like MSTR, will continue to trade as a leveraged proxy for BTC's price movements.
  • A major potential positive catalyst is on the horizon with Vanguard opening the doors for its massive client base to invest in Bitcoin, which could improve sentiment and flows into the asset class.

Shopify (SHOP)

  • The stock was down about 6%, which the host found confusing given extremely strong sales data.
  • Bullish Fundamentals:
    • Black Friday sales grew 25% year-over-year, hitting $6.2 billion in a single day.
    • The Shopify president reported strong consumer spending across the board, with 17% of orders being cross-border.
  • A possible reason for the stock's drop was a temporary website outage due to high traffic, which the host interprets as a bullish sign of overwhelming demand.

Takeaways

  • There appears to be a disconnect between Shopify's stock performance on the day and its underlying business performance, which looks very strong.
  • The consumer appears to be healthier than many feared, with record-breaking sales on Black Friday. This is a positive sign for the broader economy and for consumer-facing companies like Shopify.
  • Investors might see the price drop as an opportunity, assuming the outage was a temporary issue and the underlying growth story remains intact.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock has pulled back since its strong earnings report, in line with a broader sell-off in AI names.
  • Bearish Seasonality: The host pointed out that, historically, December is Palantir's worst month, with an average decline of 8.2%.
  • Dan Ives' Bullish Take:
    • In contrast, analyst Dan Ives was extremely bullish, stating investors should "triple down" on the stock.
    • He believes Palantir is the "first call" for enterprise AI use cases and that this is not yet reflected in the stock price.
    • He has a price target range of $200 - $250.

Takeaways

  • Palantir is a polarizing stock with strong bull and bear arguments.
  • While short-term historical data suggests potential weakness in December, prominent tech analysts see massive long-term potential.
  • Investors should be aware of the stock's high valuation and emotional debate, but bulls believe the company's unique position in enterprise AI justifies a premium and offers significant upside.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!