NBIS CRUSHES THE BEARS, AI INFRA RALLIES, COHERENT, CEREBRAS, CISCO EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
NBIS CRUSHES THE BEARS, AI INFRA RALLIES, COHERENT, CEREBRAS, CISCO EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
14 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on high volatility in Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) by buying pullbacks to trade potential short squeezes driven by its 30% short float. Accumulate dips in CoreWeave (CRWV) to target multi-year AI cloud infrastructure demand backed by long-duration contracts. Maintain NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as a foundational core holding to capture ongoing tailwinds from the massive multi-billion-dollar AI hardware supercycle. Buy post-earnings dips in Coherent Corp. (COHR) to secure exposure to critical, bottlenecked optical components for data center interconnectivity. Use any near-term market weakness in Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) to build a stable, diversified networking position benefiting from the AI data center build-out.

Detailed Analysis

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)

  • Surged 30% in a single day, continuing a strong year-to-date rally of 150%, reaching a market cap of $68 billion alongside $51 billion in debt.
  • Experiencing massive short interest, with a 30% short float and prominent short-sellers (such as Michael Burry) doubling down on bearish bets, leading to a potential short squeeze driven by panic-covering.
  • Implementing an asset-light business model similar to a loan platform, leveraging external capital and GPUs to generate software revenue risk-free.
  • Generating short-term contracts with exceptionally fast payback periods of approximately one year and 10 months, benefiting from extreme power scarcity and pricing power.
  • Bearish critics argue that short-term contracts indicate backwardation, where high front-end pricing will fade as supply constraints ease, potentially causing long-term depreciation and margin pressure.

Takeaways

  • Look for pullbacks to build a position, as high volatility provides frequent entry points, but be prepared to stomach sharp swings.
  • Watch upcoming earnings and guidance for confirmation that the asset-light software model continues to accelerate revenue without over-relying on short-term pricing spikes.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • Rose nearly 20% in a single session, driven by robust data center expansion and proof of profitability on long-term contracts.
  • Added 500 megawatts (half a gigawatt) of capacity in a single quarter, showcasing execution comparable to major hyperscalers.
  • Faces continued skepticism from the market regarding its heavy debt profile, though proponents argue the debt funds highly profitable, long-duration infrastructure build-outs (with contracts stretching to 2029 on older A100 chips).
  • Features strong enterprise value considerations due to extensive GPU assets offsetting its liabilities.

Takeaways

  • Treat dips as accumulation opportunities if you believe in the multi-year demand cycle for AI cloud infrastructure.
  • Monitor quarterly debt-to-equity ratios and megawatt deployment rates to ensure debt is scaling healthily with revenue generation.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

  • Gained 3% following broader AI infrastructure momentum and announcements surrounding a massive $500 billion ecosystem infrastructure push.
  • CEO Jensen Huang's strategy involves backing and standardizing AI cloud builds, data centers, and server designs (via DGX and MGX) to accelerate global adoption and chip sales.
  • Short-term contracts and long-term hardware lifespans (with customers running chips for many years rather than standard 2-to-3-year depreciation cycles) validate the long-term utility of their hardware.

Takeaways

  • Consider NVIDIA as a core holding for exposure to the foundational hardware layer of the artificial intelligence supercycle.
  • Pay attention to broader capital expenditure trends from major hyperscalers to gauge future demand sustainability.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

  • Reported a strong double beat for the quarter, beating EPS by 4% ($1.22 vs $1.17 expected) and revenue by 3% ($17.25 billion vs $16.83 billion).
  • Networking revenue hit $9.79 billion, up 40% year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
  • Raised full-year fiscal 2027 AI revenue guidance to $7.5 billion, with strong Q1 guidance exceeding Wall Street anticipations by over $1 billion.
  • Margins faced slight pressure from component and memory costs, though overall product growth remained robust at 35% year-over-year.

Takeaways

  • Cisco represents a more stable, diversified play on the AI data center build-out via the networking supercycle compared to high-beta neoclouds.
  • Watch gross margin trends on upcoming earnings calls to ensure supply chain costs do not erode the benefits of rising networking revenue.

Coherent Corp. (COHR)

  • Delivered a double beat with EPS of $1.74 versus $1.62 expected (a 7% beat) and revenue of $2.04 billion versus $1.98 billion expected (a 3% beat).
  • Saw significant year-over-year growth, with EPS up 74% and revenue up 34%.
  • Benefits strongly from optics and photonics demand, positioning itself well within bottlenecked areas of the AI infrastructure stack.

Takeaways

  • Use minor post-earnings pullbacks to gain exposure to the optical components space, which remains critical for data center interconnectivity.

Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

  • Reported mixed financial results with a double beat on the top and bottom lines (adjusting for non-GAAP figures), including core revenue of $209 million (up 103% year-over-year) and a reduced adjusted EBITDA loss of $53 million.
  • Guided third-quarter core revenue between $214 and $216 million, with full-year expectations around $880 to $890 million.
  • Shares faced downward pressure (dropping around 11% to 14% after-hours) due to a higher-than-expected jump in operating expenses (surging to $502 million versus $89 million the prior year) and sequentially dropping gross margins in Q3.
  • Highlighted partnerships with major tech giants and chipmakers, including OpenAI, AWS, AMD, and Crowdstrike.

Takeaways

  • Treat Cerebras as a higher-risk, high-reward alternative play in the AI compute space.
  • Monitor operating expense growth and margin recovery closely before committing new capital to ensure high spending translates into sustainable market share.

<div> <h3>Investment Themes & Sectors</h3> <ul> <li><b>AI Infrastructure & Neoclouds:</b> Rapid capacity expansion, heavy capital expenditures, and surging short-term compute pricing are driving massive volatility and re-ratings across neocloud providers.</li> <li><b>Semiconductors & Optics:</b> Hardware demand remains structurally supported by growing multi-trillion-dollar hyperscaler budgets and rising GPU spot prices.</li> <li><b>Power & Energy Constraints:</b> Data center access to reliable power (such as Bloom Energy fuel cells and contracted energy sites) has become a primary moat and bottleneck for AI growth.</li> </ul> </div>
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!