META DOWN 10%, MICROSOFT UP 10%, LEOPOLD RAISING NEW CASH, ARE WE CLOSE TO A BOTTOM? | MARKET OPEN
META DOWN 10%, MICROSOFT UP 10%, LEOPOLD RAISING NEW CASH, ARE WE CLOSE TO A BOTTOM? | MARKET OPEN
19 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Microsoft (MSFT) as a stable, long-term buy due to its disciplined capital expenditure management, robust cloud growth, and strong AI software monetization. For Meta Platforms (META), hold off on adding new positions and wait for clearer management signals regarding capital expenditure return on investment following recent price target cuts to $820. Capitalize on the recent market dip for Robinhood Markets (HOOD), as strong underlying fundamentals, record net deposits of $22 billion, and expanding Gold subscribers make the stock fundamentally sound. Take advantage of high-risk, high-reward bounce opportunities in memory and hardware chip stocks like Micron (MU) within the broader Semiconductor Sector (SMH). Keep in mind that the recent extreme semiconductor sell-offs were driven by systemic hedge fund deleveraging rather than a structural failure of the long-term AI demand thesis.

Detailed Analysis

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft delivered strong earnings, beating consensus by $3 billion with revenues of $90 billion and EPS of $4.74 (a 10% beat).
  • Azure cloud revenue grew 43% year-over-year, beating expectations of 41%, with further acceleration guided at 45%.
  • Copilot saw significant growth with paid subscribers reaching 30 million (up 50% quarter-over-quarter).
  • CFO Amy Hood announced that 2026 capital expenditures (CapEx) will remain unchanged at $190 billion, ensuring the company remains free cash flow positive.
  • The stock surged 10% to 15% in pre-market and early trading following the announcements.

Takeaways

  • Microsoft presents a balanced AI investment case, demonstrating strong software monetization paired with disciplined CapEx management.
  • Actionable takeaway: Considered a stable, long-term buy due to disciplined cost management alongside robust cloud and AI software growth.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta reported a difficult quarter, with shares falling roughly 10%.
  • While advertising revenue grew 27% year-over-year, the rate of growth slowed compared to the previous quarter.
  • CEO Mark Zuckerberg increased the lower end of the CapEx range from $125 billion to $135 billion (with a top end of $145 billion), while continuing to lose roughly $5 billion every 90 days on Reality Labs.
  • Analysts at Evercore removed Meta from their top pick list and cut price targets from $930 to $820, citing rising AI spend without clear ROI visibility.

Takeaways

  • The market is currently punishing Meta for aggressive CapEx increases without a clearly communicated timeline for AI monetization outside of advertising.
  • Actionable takeaway: While shares are fundamentally cheaper following the drop, investors should look for clearer management signals regarding CapEx ROI before adding to positions.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Robinhood crushed its quarterly metrics, delivering efficient growth across all business lines with revenues up 32% year-over-year.
  • Key metrics included record net deposits of $22 billion in 90 days, Gold subscribers up 39% year-over-year to 4.8 million, and assets approaching $400 billion.
  • Management successfully introduced two new business lines generating over $100 million in annual revenue (Robinhood Legend and the credit card).

Takeaways

  • Despite phenomenal fundamental growth and strong execution, the stock experienced a brief dip during macro market sell-offs, presenting potential value.
  • Actionable takeaway: Strong underlying growth and deposit inflows make Robinhood fundamentally sound, though short-term price action may remain tied to broader market trends.

Semiconductor Sector & Memory Chips (SMH, MU, SK Hynix)

  • High-beta semiconductor and memory names experienced massive volatility, driven by forced deleveraging events—notably the liquidation of a major AI-focused hedge fund (Situational Awareness/Leopold Ashenbrenner) whose public equity portfolio was acquired by Citadel.
  • Major memory and hardware players like Micron, SanDisk, and Nebius saw sharp intraday rebounds (up 10% to 30%) following extreme sell-offs.
  • UBS expects global memory chip undersupply to continue into 2028, underpinning long-term demand fundamentals.

Takeaways

  • The extreme sell-off in semiconductors was heavily exacerbated by systemic leverage unwinding rather than a structural failure of the AI thesis.
  • Actionable takeaway: Memory and hardware sectors present high-risk, high-reward bounce opportunities if systemic deleveraging has fully cleared the market.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!