MEMORY CONTINUES GETTING HIT, MAG 7 GO GREEN, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
MEMORY CONTINUES GETTING HIT, MAG 7 GO GREEN, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
12 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 55 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Favor Micron (MU) for its long-term AI memory-demand potential, but avoid chasing near-term weakness; watch $909 and $850 as downside chart levels, not guaranteed support.
  • Consider AMD only if it holds near $585; a confirmed hold could support a move toward $670–$690, while a break lower may expose the mid-$500s.
  • Treat NVIDIA (NVDA) as a watchlist hold rather than a fresh short-term entry: a sustained break above $235–$236 would strengthen its trend, while failure may mean further consolidation.
  • For Bitcoin (BTC), wait for a breakout above $87,500 before considering a momentum entry; losing support near $78,900 could open a path toward $69,000.
  • Given CPI and ongoing semiconductor weakness, wait for confirmation before adding broad chip exposure through SMH or SOXX.
Detailed Analysis

Semiconductor Sector and Semiconductor ETFs (SMH, SOXX)

  • Semiconductor stocks were broadly weak, with SMH and SOXX ending slightly down after recovering from deeper intraday losses. The host said semiconductors were approaching a sixth consecutive down day.
  • Performance diverged: NVIDIA, Broadcom, and some other large names finished green, while memory and several smaller semiconductor-related stocks remained under pressure.
  • The discussion identified AI-related demand for computing as a longer-term support for chipmakers, while highlighting near-term concerns about market sentiment, valuations, and the concentration of returns in a small number of companies.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents a mixed picture: long-term AI-related chip demand remains a bullish theme, but the sector’s recent weakness and uneven performance argue against assuming all semiconductor stocks will move together.
  • The host and technical guest repeatedly cautioned that economic news, particularly CPI, could disrupt short-term chart setups.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Micron fell about 4.6% on the day and was described as part of the pressure on memory stocks.
  • Guest analyst Gil Luria remained bullish on memory demand. He said Chinese producer CXMT is catching up but participates mainly in the lower-end market, does not supply high-bandwidth memory, and cannot sell to major U.S. customers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Apple, and NVIDIA.
  • Luria said Chinese memory producers also cannot meet domestic demand, and that Micron’s forecast for tighter supply over the next two years already accounts for Chinese competition.
  • The host said Luria had previously upgraded Micron at $175 and had a $3,000 price target. The transcript does not clarify the time horizon or assumptions for that target.
  • The technical guest said Micron had lost the $979 area he had been watching. He cited lower chart reference areas around $909 and $850 if weakness continued, and said the stock could remain choppy.

Takeaways

  • The fundamental case discussed is bullish: AI-related memory demand could remain strong, and the guest argued that Chinese competition is not yet a direct substitute for Micron’s higher-end products or U.S. customer relationships.
  • The near-term technical picture was more cautious. The cited price levels are chart references, not guarantees or formal fundamental valuation targets.
  • Risks specifically raised include Chinese competitors catching up, semiconductor-sector weakness, and the possibility that sentiment or cyclicality could outweigh strong company fundamentals in the short term.

SanDisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC)

  • SanDisk was discussed alongside Micron as a memory stock under pressure. The technical guest cited $1,067 as a level he had been watching and said the stock had moved well beyond it.
  • Western Digital and Seagate (STX) were described as showing more constructive intraday recoveries than Micron, though the guest cautioned that those moves might not persist.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests memory stocks may diverge even when they share the same broad demand theme. Compare each company’s chart and business exposure rather than treating memory as a single trade.
  • The intraday recoveries were not presented as confirmation of a lasting rebound.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA finished green at about $228.52, despite broader weakness among semiconductor stocks.
  • The company’s upcoming GTC Berlin event was mentioned, along with an event in Paris involving NVIDIA, OpenClaw, and Jensen Huang.
  • The technical guest said NVIDIA’s upward trend remained intact but needed to make a new high to sustain it. He identified $235–$236 as a potential resistance area; failure there could lead to further consolidation.
  • The guest also noted that, at a multitrillion-dollar market value, further substantial gains require large amounts of new capital and should not be assumed to happen quickly.

Takeaways

  • NVIDIA retains a positive long-term AI and compute theme in the discussion, but the technical guest viewed the stock as near a decision point rather than a clear short-term entry.
  • $235–$236 was discussed as a chart reference, not a guaranteed price target. The guest emphasized that large-cap stocks can need time to consolidate after sharp gains.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Broadcom finished slightly green. The host said AI-related demand for compute should benefit semiconductor suppliers if Google and Meta continue building out AI capabilities.
  • Gil Luria described Broadcom’s commentary and outlook as consistently positive, arguing that remarks by its CEO about weak returns from many AI projects had been misunderstood.
  • The technical guest viewed Broadcom as holding a support area, while saying further confirmation would be needed.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports a constructive view of Broadcom’s AI-related business outlook, but does not establish that current prices are an attractive entry.
  • The main risk discussed is that enthusiasm for AI infrastructure may be unevenly rewarded if many AI projects do not generate meaningful revenue.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD turned green during the session. The host argued that growth in AI usage could raise demand for CPUs as well as GPUs, since AI services require more computing capacity.
  • The host also said AMD’s valuation appeared more reasonable than Arm’s, while noting that semiconductor sentiment remained a broader concern.
  • The technical guest described the chart as a potentially constructive retest, with a key level around $585. If that level failed, he cited the mid-$500s as a possible downside area; if it held, he said the stock could remain on track toward $670–$690.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s AMD thesis extends beyond GPUs to potential CPU demand growth.
  • The technical view was conditional: the guest emphasized that the chart was not confirmed and that CPI could alter the setup. The cited levels are technical reference points, not assured outcomes.

Arm Holdings (ARM) and Qualcomm (QCOM)

  • The host briefly shorted Arm after news that Arm had lost a lawsuit or been found to have infringed a Qualcomm patent, then covered quickly for a small gain. He said Arm rebounded soon afterward.
  • The host described Arm’s high valuation relative to AMD as a concern, while also identifying rising CPU demand as a potential long-term benefit to Arm.
  • Qualcomm was described as benefiting from the legal headline. The technical guest said Qualcomm had moved above a level he was watching near $176, with $172 as a nearby reference, but wanted further confirmation before acting. He mentioned the $220s as a longer-term area of interest if the move continued.

Takeaways

  • The transcript highlights both a potential CPU-demand opportunity for Arm and valuation and legal-related uncertainty.
  • Qualcomm’s positive reaction was tied to a specific legal headline; the technical guest did not consider one day’s move sufficient confirmation of a sustained trend.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel traded below $100 intraday before recovering.
  • The technical guest said the chart looked more constructive after the recovery. He cited $103.19 as a level to reclaim for a potential move back toward $110.
  • He also described the $90s as a possible area to watch if the stock pulled back, but stressed the importance of confirmation.

Takeaways

  • The technical discussion was cautiously positive after Intel’s recovery, but the guest treated the setup as conditional and highlighted CPI as a near-term source of uncertainty.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta rose after the release of a new AI model, which the host said had generated excitement. The company was also described as investing heavily to compete in AI.
  • The host argued that Google and Meta have extensive resources and existing businesses that can support AI research and development.
  • The technical guest said Meta’s chart looked strong and could continue toward its prior highs, while warning against chasing a sharp move.

Takeaways

  • The discussion is bullish on Meta’s AI ambitions and the market’s reaction to its model release.
  • The key risk raised is that enthusiasm around AI may not translate equally into durable revenue or returns on investment.

Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG)

  • Google finished higher after releasing Gemini 4 Argon. The host said detailed benchmarks were not yet available but viewed the launch as evidence that Google remains a serious AI competitor.
  • The host noted that Google’s scale and existing businesses could help fund AI research and development.
  • The technical guest described the stock as constructive above $350, with $360 discussed as a resistance area.

Takeaways

  • Google’s AI competition and ability to fund development from its core businesses were presented as strengths.
  • The transcript did not establish how Gemini 4 Argon performs against competing models; the host said further benchmark information was needed.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple reached an all-time high after announcing Apple HomeView, described in the transcript as an AI-enabled Siri device, but later gave back much of its intraday gain.
  • The technical guest noted that Apple opened near its highs and sold off during the session. He identified about $339 as a potential retest area.

Takeaways

  • The product announcement generated a positive initial reaction, but the stock’s intraday reversal shows that the announcement alone did not sustain the move.
  • The $339 level was a technical reference, not a formal price target.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • The technical guest described Microsoft as having a potentially weak daily candle after a strong move. He cited $543 as a level to watch; a move below it could lead to a pullback.
  • The host included Microsoft among the major companies supporting the AI and semiconductor investment cycle.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was mixed: Microsoft was part of the broader AI growth theme, but its short-term chart was viewed as vulnerable to a pullback.
  • The guest’s technical caution was conditional, not a fundamental bearish call.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla was slightly lower after trading green earlier in the day.
  • The technical guest described the stock as neutral and consolidating, with $386 acting as resistance. He said the broader chart could still point toward $415 or higher, but advised leaving the stock alone while it remained range-bound.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers a longer-term constructive possibility but no clear near-term catalyst or entry.
  • Consolidation and resistance were the main short-term considerations discussed.

AI Infrastructure and AI Companies: CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), OpenAI, Anthropic, Cerebras, and SpaceX

  • The host said anxiety about an anticipated Anthropic IPO was weighing on the market and expected more details, including a potential S-1 filing, within roughly 10 days.
  • The transcript discussed OpenAI and Anthropic as leading AI companies, while speakers questioned whether many other AI businesses can produce meaningful revenue from heavy token and infrastructure spending.
  • The host cited comments that AI infrastructure spending was around $200 billion annually versus roughly $150 billion in value or revenue, while acknowledging debate about how those figures should be interpreted.
  • The host said CoreWeave bonds were yielding about 15%, which prompted concern about financing and credit risk.
  • The technical guest described CoreWeave as weak and said a move back above $80 would be needed to improve the chart. He warned that it could fall below $70 in the near term; for longer-term investors, he suggested that a lower price could make additional purchases more meaningful, without making a specific recommendation.
  • Nebius had recovered from below $200 to about $206. The technical guest said it needed to reclaim $220; otherwise, he cited downside chart areas in the $180s and potentially the $140s. If it reclaimed $220, he mentioned $235–$240 as possible upside areas.
  • Cerebras was mentioned as a semiconductor-related name that rose about 2%. No detailed investment thesis or ticker was provided.
  • SpaceX, a private company, fell about 4%. The technical guest cited about $150 as a support area, with a broader range extending toward $130.

Takeaways

  • The discussion distinguishes companies with potential AI revenue and infrastructure demand from businesses that may be spending heavily without clear monetization.
  • CoreWeave’s high bond yield and the volatility in AI infrastructure stocks are notable risks. The technical levels for CoreWeave and Nebius were chart references, not company valuations.
  • Anthropic’s potential IPO could affect sentiment and competition for investor capital, but the transcript gave no specific IPO valuation or confirmed date.

Other Semiconductor and AI-Related Stocks

  • Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE) were discussed as optical and photonics-related names. Lumentum had reportedly been described by its CEO as sold out through 2029, but its shares fell back below $1,000 after a large prior move.
  • Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell during the session. The technical guest said its trading did not show the same recovery pattern he saw in some other chip-related names.
  • ASML was mentioned ahead of its results, with the guest cautioning that semiconductor-equipment results could affect sentiment.
  • Fermi rose about 14% after a reported partnership with AMD; no ticker was stated.
  • SMCI, Dell (DELL), and HPE were discussed in connection with AI servers and data-center equipment. The guest described Dell as expensive and extended, while viewing HPE’s chart as potentially more attractive after a pullback.
  • RockLab/Rocket Lab (RKLB) is covered separately below.

Takeaways

  • The transcript treats the AI hardware supply chain as broader than GPU makers, but gives limited company-specific fundamental detail for most of these names.
  • Large recent price moves, valuation, and the risk that AI infrastructure demand is concentrated or uneven were the main cautions.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

  • Rocket Lab was described as consolidating after a strong move. The technical guest said a pullback below $60, potentially toward $56, could be an area to watch, but emphasized that the stock was not yet showing a confirmed breakout.
  • AST SpaceMobile had fallen sharply. The technical guest identified a potential support zone around $48–$52 and said a move back above about $52.50 would provide more confirmation of a possible rebound.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s approach was to wait for evidence that buyers had returned rather than trying to identify the exact low.
  • These are high-volatility stocks in the discussion; the stated chart levels do not guarantee support or a recovery.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  • The technical guest described Palantir as holding above a prior breakout area. He cited about $205 as a level to watch and $222 as a possible upside reference, while noting that earnings were expected on November 2.
  • The guest said the stock had already made a substantial move into earnings, making the short-term trade less straightforward.

Takeaways

  • The technical view was constructive so long as the stock held its cited support area, but the guest cautioned that the risk-reward was less appealing after the run-up.

Shopify (SHOP), Reddit (RDDT), ServiceNow (NOW), and Software

  • Shopify was described as having strong momentum after rising from about $97 earlier in the year to around $176. The technical guest said it had given back some gains after a strong prior session.
  • Reddit fell about 3%. The host said investors would want clarity on the effect of Google search referrals on Reddit’s traffic and earnings.
  • ServiceNow was described by the technical guest as holding after a large move, with a possible pullback area around $127.
  • The host and technical guest discussed software and marketing technology as potential beneficiaries if AI improves business productivity and companies reinvest savings in advertising and growth.
  • Zeta Global (ZETA) was discussed favorably by the host, who argued that market expectations for next-year growth were too low and that partnerships might support stronger growth. This was the host’s view, not a stated company forecast.
  • Twilio (TWLO) was presented by the technical guest as a key communications platform for customer outreach and marketing. Braze (BRZE) was mentioned as a comparison.

Takeaways

  • The broader software and marketing theme is that productivity gains could lead businesses to spend more on growth and customer acquisition.
  • Reddit’s reliance on search referrals and uncertainty about monetization were specific risks raised. Zeta’s growth outlook was the host’s opinion and was not backed in the transcript by a confirmed company guidance change.

GameStop (GME)

  • The host said GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen had disclosed increasing his stake to 9.1%. The stock rose about 3% after hours.
  • The host said the CEO’s reported purchase of roughly $60 million of stock had drawn attention.

Takeaways

  • Insider buying can influence sentiment, but the transcript did not provide a new operating or earnings catalyst to support a broader investment thesis.

Energy, Utilities, and Oil-Exposed Stocks

  • Oil rose from about $87.50 the prior week to above $94.50 during the session, amid continuing uncertainty around Iran and other geopolitical developments.
  • The host said higher oil prices were weighing on some international stocks and contributing to weakness in energy-related equities.
  • Vistra (VST) and utility stocks were discussed as a longer-term opportunity tied to energy demand and data-center power needs. The technical guest described the trade as gradual “multiple expansion,” rather than an immediate high-growth move.
  • Talen Energy (TLN), NextEra Energy (NEE), Quanta Services (PWR), and Powell Industries (POWL) were also mentioned. The guest was more enthusiastic about Quanta and Powell, while describing NextEra as less exciting.
  • XLU, the utilities ETF, was discussed as part of a possible broader utility-sector recovery.
  • The host said the administration had discussed releasing diesel globally through Russia, but the market was not treating that as a clear solution to elevated oil prices.

Takeaways

  • The transcript points to energy and utility infrastructure as a potential long-term theme, especially where electricity demand and data-center construction are involved.
  • The immediate oil outlook remained uncertain because of geopolitical developments. The technical guest cautioned that some energy-related stocks were not necessarily low-risk despite their recent pullbacks.

Banks and Financial Stocks (C, GS, WFC, BAC, SCHW, and Others)

  • Citigroup (C) fell about 5%, and Wells Fargo (WFC) fell about 2%. Goldman Sachs (GS) gave back an earlier gain and finished lower.
  • The host said Federal Reserve officials offered conflicting views on whether rates might need to rise. The transcript cited a 21.6% market-implied chance of a rate hike in October.
  • Bank of America (BAC) faced a reported $1.2 billion fine related to money-laundering failures. The host said the fine could reduce Q3 EPS by $0.17 because it was not tax-deductible.
  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) and other financial companies were discussed in the context of upcoming earnings and sector rotation.

Takeaways

  • Rate uncertainty and company-specific legal or regulatory costs were the main risks identified for financial stocks.
  • The host also noted that banks had described consumers and credit conditions as holding up, but that did not prevent share-price weakness.

Grab (GRAB) and Uber (UBER)

  • Grab fell about 4% as oil prices rose, which the host said was unfavorable for international stocks exposed to higher fuel costs.
  • Uber was slightly lower and described by the technical guest as consolidating.

Takeaways

  • The discussion links higher oil prices to potential pressure on companies exposed to transportation and fuel costs, but does not provide a detailed company-specific forecast.

Other Stocks Mentioned

  • Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) fell about 3%. The host noted investor enthusiasm around the company’s future game releases, but no detailed valuation view was provided.
  • Akamai (AKAM) was described by the technical guest as near a potential long-term buying area around $101–$105. He said a break below that range could expose the stock to the mid-$80s.
  • Hims & Hers (HIMS) was described as consolidating and potentially volatile around upcoming catalysts.
  • UnitedHealth Group (UNH) had given back gains after its report; the guest said he had not seen an obvious issue in the results but did not give a specific outlook.
  • Celsius (CELH) was described as holding up, but no investment case or target was provided.
  • Ondas (ONDS) was characterized by the technical guest as a falling knife and a stock he would avoid unless it recovered significantly.
  • Kratos Defense (KTOS) was also described as weak, though the guest liked the broader defense and drone theme.
  • Fastly (FSLY) was described as consolidating, with $45 mentioned as a longer-term chart reference rather than a near-term target.
  • Corning (GLW), Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS), Cipher Mining (CIFR), Applied Digital (APLD), TeraWulf (WULF), and CleanSpark (CLSK) were mentioned in connection with volatile AI-infrastructure or “neocloud” trading. The guest specifically cautioned that dilution by some former crypto miners could weigh on the wider group.
  • Amkor (AMKR) was discussed as having a possible recovery setup, but the guest said confirmation was needed.
  • Fiverr? No: the transcript did not identify a Fiverr stock discussion.

Takeaways

  • These names received varying degrees of technical commentary, but most were not supported by detailed fundamental analysis in the transcript.
  • The clearest group-level risk raised was dilution among some companies converting from crypto mining to AI infrastructure. The guest warned that this could hurt peers through negative sector sentiment, even if every company was not in the same financial position.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was described as having approached $80,000 over the weekend before recovering.
  • The technical guest said the chart remained constructive above roughly $78,900, with a potential upside move toward $103,000 if momentum returned.
  • He also said that a break below the cited support could expose Bitcoin to about $69,000, which he viewed as a possible area of interest.
  • The guest described crypto as highly technical and prone to sharp moves and reversals. He said a move above about $87,500 could be an important breakout trigger, while also cautioning that crypto remained volatile.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s view was conditionally constructive, based on Bitcoin holding support and then breaking resistance.
  • The cited figures are technical levels, not guaranteed price targets. The transcript emphasized the risk of abrupt reversals and false breakouts.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The technical guest described Ethereum as weaker than Bitcoin but still holding an important support area around $2,023–$2,400.
  • If that support held, he cited about $3,100 as a potential move and a broader $3,700 area as a longer-term technical possibility.
  • He characterized the larger crypto recovery as potentially taking more time, possibly extending into 2027, rather than implying an immediate return to previous highs.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests a possible recovery if Ethereum holds support, but the guest viewed the setup as less strong than Bitcoin’s.
  • The stated levels are technical scenarios, not assured outcomes. The guest specifically cautioned that crypto can produce sharp, misleading moves.

Broad Market Concentration and Economic Catalysts

  • The host cited JPMorgan figures saying that 42 AI stocks accounted for 60%–80% of S&P 500 earnings growth this year, while 60% of S&P 500 stocks were down at least 20% from their highs and only 30% were outperforming the index.
  • The discussion raised concern that the market had become top-heavy, while also acknowledging that the largest technology and AI companies were driving a significant part of earnings growth.
  • CPI was described as an important near-term catalyst. The transcript cited a median forecast of 3.6% year-over-year headline CPI and 2.4% core CPI; a core reading below 2.4% was described as potentially supportive for markets.
  • Paul Tudor Jones was quoted as warning that 2027 could be challenging and comparing the market environment to 1999, citing IPO issuance and supply of new shares. The host questioned how much weight to place on his repeated warnings.
  • The technical guest said the Dow and its components looked relatively stronger than parts of the technology-heavy market, while cautioning that economic releases could rapidly change short-term setups.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents a market where AI-related companies are important drivers of earnings, but many other stocks are lagging. That concentration can make index performance look healthier than the broader market.
  • CPI, interest-rate expectations, oil prices, and upcoming earnings were identified as potential sources of volatility.
  • The discussion offers competing interpretations of market risk: strong AI-company results and infrastructure demand on one side, and concentration, valuation, IPO supply, and uncertain returns on AI spending on the other.

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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!