MARKETS TRY TO REVERSE, OKLO EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
MARKETS TRY TO REVERSE, OKLO EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Corning (GLW) is a high-conviction "re-rating" play as it transitions into AI infrastructure, with massive contracts from Meta and NVIDIA potentially adding over $15 billion in future revenue. Akamai (AKAM) is pivoting from a legacy business to an AI leader; look for price acceptance over $151–$152 to trigger a technical path toward targets of $170 and $191. Micron (MU) remains the preferred play for the structural shift in memory demand, with a confirmed hold of $750 opening the door for a move toward $800 and $808. Ahead of earnings, NVIDIA (NVDA) shows strong bullish momentum with a short-term price target of $230 and a long-term potential of $260 if growth metrics are met. For speculative growth, monitor AMD for a move toward $475, while taking profits on Rocket Lab (RKLB) near $120 as it hits significant resistance.

Detailed Analysis

Corning (GLW)

  • The analyst started a new position in Corning at $195 during the market dip.
  • Key Context:
    • The company is rebranding from a "legacy glass maker" to an AI infrastructure play (fiber optics/photonics).
    • NVIDIA recently invested in the company.
    • Mention of a $6 billion deal with Meta.
    • Transcript highlights a "hidden" insight from earnings calls: Corning mentioned two additional deals of equal size/scope to the Meta deal, potentially adding $12 billion in future revenue.
    • A deal with NVIDIA for "scale-up" (NVLink connectivity within Blackwell server racks) could add another $3.5 billion.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The analyst views Corning as a "re-rating" story where the market hasn't fully priced in the expanded Total Addressable Market (TAM).
  • Technical Levels: The stock has consolidated for ~70 days; a breakout is viewed as "ripe."
  • Action: Look for continued strength as the market realizes the scale of the new fiber/connectivity contracts.

Akamai (AKAM)

  • The analyst picked up shares of Akamai today, citing a "paradigm-shifting" deal.
  • Key Context:
    • Historically a Content Delivery Network (CDN), Akamai is pivoting to AI infrastructure.
    • Mention of a massive $1.8 billion, seven-year contract (rumored to be with Anthropic).
    • This deal is significantly larger than typical industry contracts (usually $5M–$10M).

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Akamai is seen as the leader in "agentic workload" and API traffic management.
  • Technical Levels: Needs to hold price acceptance over $151–$152. If it clears this, the analyst sees a path to $170, then $191, and potentially $250 long-term.
  • Risk: Legacy CDN business is slowing, but the new AI infrastructure growth is expected to more than offset it.

Oklo (OKLO)

  • Oklo reported earnings after the bell: $0 revenue and a $33 million loss (negative $0.18 EPS), which met street expectations.
  • Key Context:
    • It is a "story stock" in the nuclear energy sector.
    • JP Morgan recently initiated coverage with a bullish stance on nuclear.
    • The company has $2.5 billion in cash but recently did a $1.2 billion ATM (at-the-market) dilution.

Takeaways

  • Neutral/Speculative: The stock is purely a play on future nuclear deals. It doesn't typically "pump or dump" on earnings because revenue is expected to be zero for now.
  • Action: Monitor for new contract announcements rather than quarterly financial results.

Micron (MU)

  • Micron saw a massive intraday recovery from $706 back to $760+.
  • Key Context:
    • The analyst notes that "DRAM" is the top exposure retail investors are seeking to play the memory boom without buying higher-priced stocks.
    • Discussion of a potential "catalyst" from an upcoming Brad Gerstner podcast featuring the Micron CEO.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Momentum: The velocity of the recovery suggests aggressive buying on dips.
  • Technical Levels: If it holds $750, the next tradable targets are $800 and then $808. A breach of $808 could lead to $900+.
  • Investment Theme: Memory is no longer viewed by some as purely cyclical but as a structural necessity for the AI "Industrial Revolution."

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA is approaching all-time highs ahead of its upcoming earnings report.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The analyst expects NVIDIA to "crush" earnings, but notes the stock is "overstretched" in the short term.
  • Technical Levels: Target of $230+ (pre-split adjusted/equivalent levels) before earnings.
  • Long-term Target: If earnings check all "magic formula" boxes (pricing power + new customers), the analyst sees a path to $260.

Other Notable Mentions

Semiconductors & Hardware

  • AMD: Massive recovery from $428 to $448. Technical target of $475, then potentially $528.
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Similar setup to NVIDIA; bullish outlook.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM): Had its worst day since 2020 but recovered to $210. Must hold $206–$208 to stay "on the mend."
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB): Hit targets at $120+. Analyst suggests taking profits here as it hits resistance. Support for a dip buy is at $90.

Software & Platforms

  • Shopify (SHOP): Closed below $100. Analyst is looking to buy as a "set and forget" but is waiting for a deeper dip toward $80–$85.
  • Palantir (PLTR): Consolidating. Needs to clear $165 to "rumble." Support is at $115–$125.
  • Zeta Global (ZETA): In "accumulation mode" rather than "appreciation mode." Support at $15.50–$15.90.

Cryptocurrency

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Showing momentum despite recent bad days. Technical target in the high $90,000s, with a potential rejection/pullback at $77,000–$79,000 first.

Investment Themes: The "Magic Formula"

The analyst shared a specific framework for identifying "re-rating" winners in the AI sector:

  1. Pricing Power: Raising prices due to supply constraints (e.g., Memory).
  2. Net New Lines of Business: Expanding the Total Addressable Market (TAM).
  3. Marquee Customers: Adding major names (e.g., Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA) to the roster.
  4. Traction: Continued growth in these new lines of business.

Sector Rotation Note: The market is currently rewarding "AI Infrastructure" (Power, Cooling, Connectivity, Memory) over general "SaaS/Software" (ServiceNow, Salesforce), which is currently in the "doghouse."

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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ singapore meetup: https://tinyurl.com/y75mh25b 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - Market Close 32:00 - SPY TA 40:10 - GLW TA 58:18 - NVDA TA 1:00:48 - AMD TA 1:05:00 - NBIS TA 1:10:00 - RKLB TA 1:13:05 - TSLA TA 1:16:49 - ASTS TA 1:18:40 - MU TA 1:25:03 - PLTR TA 1:28:20 - CRWV TA 1:30:35 - IREN TA 1:35:30 - HIMS TA 1:39:47 - META TA 1:43:00 - MSFT TA 1:45:30 - APPL TA 1:47:15 - UNH TA 1:55:17 - ANET TA 2:04:15 - OSCR TA 2:05:27 - SOFI TA 2:07:53 - HOOD TA 2:09:30 - CELH TA 2:11:38 - NET TA 2:29:12 - NFLX TA 2:33:07 - Rapid Fire
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!