MARKETS TRY TO RECOVER + TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
MARKETS TRY TO RECOVER + TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
143 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Following its breakout to a new all-time high, Tesla (TSLA) presents a bullish opportunity with a technical price target of $577, as long as it holds above the key $465 support level. Meta (META) is showing significant strength and could see a major rally if it breaks above the $690 level, with an initial target in the $720-$730 range. For investors interested in the space sector, Rocket Lab (RKLB) is approaching an attractive potential entry point near $48.50 after its recent pullback. Similarly, ASTS (ASTS) has pulled back to a key support level around $67, which is considered an attractive area for a potential bounce toward $82. While the long-term market outlook is positive, investors should be aware of potential choppiness and a possible correction around May-October 2024, which has historically been a major buying opportunity.

Detailed Analysis

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The stock hit a new all-time high, breaking above the previous high of $488.54 to trade around $490.
  • The host noted this run-up feels "healthier" than the last one a year ago, citing a fundamentally different story that now includes more progress on energy growth, Optimus, and FSD/Robotaxis.
  • The stock is up 125% from its April lows.
  • A brief after-hours scare occurred on news that California's DMV was proposing a 30-day sales suspension over FSD marketing. However, this was quickly followed by reports that the ruling was reversed, which could lead to a "FOMO" rally.
  • From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has broken out of a major consolidation pattern.
    • A measured move from this breakout gives a potential price target of $577.
    • A key risk level is $465. If the stock breaks below this level, the breakout would be considered failed, and it could fall back towards the $415 support level.
    • The analyst's intuition is that a move above $500 towards $600 is more likely than a breakdown.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Very Bullish.
  • Actionable Insight: The breakout to a new all-time high is a strong bullish signal. Investors could see this as a confirmation of the uptrend.
  • Key Levels:
    • Target: $577 (technical measured move).
    • Support / Risk Level: $465. A sustained drop below this price would be a major warning sign for the current rally.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock is described as a "coiled spring" after two consecutive days of very tight trading ranges, suggesting a large, explosive move is imminent.
  • Fundamentally, the valuation is not seen as a major concern, trading at roughly 25 times forward earnings.
  • The overall theme of data center build-outs remains a strong tailwind for the company.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish.
  • Actionable Insight: The stock is preparing for a significant move. Investors should watch for a breakout from its current tight range to signal the next direction. This is not a time to be complacent.
  • Key Levels:
    • Resistance/Breakout: $179. A move above this level could trigger a sharp rally.
    • Support/Breakdown: $174. A move below this level could lead to a sharp decline.

Data Center & "Neocloud" Stocks (NBS, CRVE, IREN)

  • This sector is described as highly volatile but with a potential catalyst from a congressional bill aimed at increasing data center construction.

  • A major risk factor mentioned is political blowback over the high electricity consumption of data centers, which could lead to higher utility bills for consumers.

  • Nebius (NBS):

    • The host is holding the stock with a $97 average cost.
    • The technical analyst identified $79 as a key support level and a potential high-risk, high-reward entry point. A break below the recent lows would be a very bearish signal.
  • Corrieve (CRVE):

    • The stock was down significantly due to a Wall Street Journal article highlighting its debt and close ties to OpenAI, which the market currently views with some skepticism.
    • It is considered a higher-risk play than Nebius because of this news.
  • IREN (IREN):

    • The stock recovered from its daily lows after hitting a key technical pullback level around $33.50.
    • A bounce to the low $40s is possible, but $31 is a critical support level to watch. A break below that could send the stock to the low $20s.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish on the sector for risk-tolerant investors.
  • Actionable Insight: These stocks are at or near key technical support levels, which could present attractive entry points. However, due to their high volatility and sector-specific risks, they are not for the faint of heart. Investors should pay close attention to the support levels mentioned.

S&P 500 (SPY)

  • The long-term outlook is considered very bullish, based on the Federal Reserve's projections for a "Goldilocks" economy (stable growth and stable inflation).
  • The market is currently in a short-term "disinflationary" phase (slowing growth), which is causing the rotation out of mega-cap tech and into other sectors. This is seen as normal and healthy.
  • Based on historical presidential cycles, there is a possibility of a significant market correction around May-October 2024, which has historically been a major buying opportunity.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Long-term Bullish, Short-term Neutral/Choppy.
  • Actionable Insight: While the long-term picture looks bright, expect continued choppiness and rotation in the short term. Investors can use this period to identify opportunities in sectors that benefit from a broadening market.
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: $675. This is a critical level. As long as the S&P 500 stays above it, the structure is positive.
    • Resistance: $682. A firm break above this would be a very bullish short-term signal.

Meta (META)

  • The stock has shown significant relative strength, holding its ground while the broader market pulled back.
  • The analyst is very bullish, noting the current chart pattern is similar to one that preceded a major run-up in the past.
  • If Meta can break out of its current consolidation range, it is described as having the potential to be "Tessie 2.0" (referring to Tesla's explosive moves).

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Very Bullish.
  • Actionable Insight: Meta could be on the verge of a major breakout. A sustained move above $690 would be a strong confirmation and could lead to a rapid climb.
  • Key Levels:
    • Breakout Trigger: $690.
    • Initial Target: $720 - $730.
    • Long-Term Potential: If it holds $720, it could become a $1,000+ stock.
    • Support: $645.

Space Stocks (RKLB, ASTS)

  • This sector is viewed as a potential beneficiary of several themes: the "January effect" (historical small-cap strength), market rotation, and momentum. A future SpaceX IPO could also bring significant attention to these names.

  • Rocket Lab (RKLB):

    • After a 75% rally, the stock is in a pullback. The analyst is looking for a potential entry near $52 or, more ideally, around $48.50.
  • ASTS (ASTS):

    • The stock has already pulled back to a key technical support level around $67, which is considered an attractive area. A potential bounce could target the $82 level.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish.
  • Actionable Insight: Both stocks are pulling back to levels that are considered attractive technical entry points for investors looking for exposure to the space industry and small-cap growth.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • A major product event focused on AI and prediction markets is seen as a significant upcoming catalyst.
  • Despite the chart not looking great in the short term, the analyst expressed a long-term conviction in the stock.
  • The key support level was identified around $115. A bounce from here is expected to target the high $120s to mid-$130s.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish, pending the event.
  • Actionable Insight: The event is the key driver. Technically, the stock is at a support level where a bounce is likely. The real test will be if it can break through resistance at $140 on that bounce. A failure there could signal more weakness ahead.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The analyst is more bullish on altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), which he believes will outperform Bitcoin.
  • The chart is potentially forming a "bear flag," which is a bearish continuation pattern.
  • A "Santa Claus Rally," which historically starts on December 26th, could provide a boost.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Neutral.
  • Actionable Insight: For those looking for crypto exposure, the analyst suggests looking at altcoins for higher potential returns. For Bitcoin itself, the price action is at a critical juncture.
  • Key Levels:
    • Support: $88,000. A hold here could lead to a move towards $103,000.
    • Potential Deeper Buy Zone: $75,000. A drop to this level would be seen as a more attractive entry point.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ nyc feb meetup: https://shorturl.at/wk0pN jason - https://x.com/PaperGainsInc jason - https://www.youtube.com/@papergainsinc 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - Market Close 25:15 - Tesla TA 36:14 - Macro 45:00 - SPY TA 51:46 - NBIS TA 56:35 - BMNR TA 1:00:59 - NVDA TA 1:06:07 - PLTR TA 1:11:00 - RKLB & ASTS TA 1:19:25 - META TA 1:32:00 - AMZN TA 1:35:55 - HOOD TA 1:41:28 - NFLX TA 1:45:20 - SOFI TA 1:49:00 - BTC TA 1:55:22 - AMD TA 1:57:00 - AVGO TA 1:59:00 - IREN TA 2:03:52 - MU TA 2:09:00 - GOOGL TA 2:18:40 - BULL TA 2:21:00 - VG TA 2:31:00 - WDAY TA 2:33:00 - CRWV TA 2:34:50 - MP TA 2:38:16 - SLV TA 2:41:12 - BE TA 2:45:17 - PYPL TA 2:47:20 - SMCI TA 2:49:20 - ONDS TA 2:51:04 - ETSY TA
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!