MARKETS TRY TO RECOVER, GOOGLE SELLING BONDS, BIG TECH CAPEX | MARKET OPEN
MARKETS TRY TO RECOVER, GOOGLE SELLING BONDS, BIG TECH CAPEX | MARKET OPEN
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

NVIDIA (NVDA) is considered a top buy on any weakness ahead of its earnings report, with analysts believing the stock should trade above $200 post-announcement. Meta Platforms (META) is highlighted as a favorite dip-buy opportunity after its recent sell-off, carrying a year-end price target of $750. As another direct play on the AI infrastructure spending theme, consider AMD (AMD), whose recent dip was viewed as a significant buying opportunity. For a contrarian investment, look into the beaten-down SaaS sector, with Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) cited as undervalued rebound candidates. Finally, SoFi (SOFI) presents a strong bullish signal, as its CEO called the stock undervalued and intends to personally buy shares after his trading blackout period.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The host is very bullish on NVIDIA, calling it the "most important company in the world."
  • It is positioned as the single biggest beneficiary of the massive capital expenditure (CapEx) boom from Big Tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.
  • Earnings are expected to be exceptionally strong, with the host speculating they could "demolish" expectations and report revenue around $68-$70 billion with a forward-looking growth guide of 45-50% for fiscal year 2026.
  • The recent dip to the $170s was described as an irrational sell-off and a significant buying opportunity. The host personally bought shares at $178.
  • A potential risk mentioned is a post-earnings sell-off where the stock gives back its gains, similar to what happened last November. However, the host believes such a move would be unjustified.
  • The host believes the stock should trade above $200 after its upcoming earnings report.

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis for NVIDIA is strongly tied to the continued, massive spending on AI infrastructure by the world's largest tech companies.
  • The stock is seen as a core holding for exposure to the AI theme. The recent price dip was viewed by the host as a clear opportunity to buy or add to a position.
  • Investors should be prepared for potential volatility around the earnings announcement, but the long-term outlook is presented as overwhelmingly positive.

Big Tech & Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

  • A major investment theme discussed is the massive wave of spending by Big Tech, expected to exceed $650 billion and grow at nearly 30% year-over-year.
  • Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOGL) are leading this charge to build out AI capabilities.
  • This spending is seen as a major tailwind for the broader economy, potentially preventing a severe recession, and is the primary driver for NVIDIA's growth.
  • For the companies doing the spending, it's a double-edged sword in the short term:
    • It's a long-term bullish investment in future growth.
    • It negatively impacts short-term free cash flow, which has been a headwind for their stock prices. Amazon, for example, is expected to have little to no positive free cash flow.

Takeaways

  • Investing in companies that are the beneficiaries of this spending, like NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), is a direct way to play this theme.
  • For the tech giants spending the money (AMZN, META), the recent price weakness could be a buying opportunity for long-term investors who believe these investments will pay off in future growth and market dominance.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The host described Meta as his "favorite Mag 7 dip buy" right now.
  • The stock price has completely "round-tripped" its post-earnings gains, meaning it's trading back at a level it was before announcing an impressive 33% revenue growth.
  • The host called the sell-off "stupid" and stated a minimum price target of $750 by the end of the year.
  • He personally bought the stock on Friday, viewing it as an opportunity to get the strong earnings report "for free."
  • NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, was quoted praising Meta as one of the best companies at implementing and benefiting from AI.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment is extremely bullish. The recent sell-off is presented as a major buying opportunity that is disconnected from the company's fundamental performance.
  • The combination of massive revenue growth, aggressive AI implementation, and a discounted stock price makes it a top pick for a rebound among large-cap tech stocks.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The host is long-term bullish on Amazon and bought the stock on Friday's dip.
  • The primary reason for the stock's recent weakness is its heavy CapEx spending, which is expected to result in little to no positive free cash flow in the short term.
  • This spending is viewed not as a negative, but as a necessary investment for the "next evolution of growth," particularly for its AWS cloud division.
  • Another headwind mentioned is that Amazon filed for a mixed-shelf offering, likely to raise funds to invest in OpenAI, which could dilute shareholders.
  • Despite short-term pressures, the host highlighted the strength of its advertising business, which is doing $40 billion a year and growing fast.

Takeaways

  • Amazon is a play for patient, long-term investors. The stock is currently being punished for making investments that are expected to drive future growth.
  • The current price weakness is presented as a buying opportunity for those who can look past the short-term impact on free cash flow and focus on the long-term potential of AWS, advertising, and AI.

Software as a Service (SaaS) Sector (IGV)

  • The SaaS sector has been "decimated," with many stocks trading at multi-year lows (e.g., Adobe (ADBE) at 2022 levels).
  • The core debate is whether AI will commoditize and shrink the profits of traditional SaaS companies.
  • There are signs of a potential bottom, with the software ETF IGV seeing $1.5 billion in inflows and heavy call option buying last week.
  • Prominent analyst Dan Ives is bullish, adding Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) to his "Ives AI 30" list and calling the sell-off "ridiculous."
  • The key for these companies to rebound is to prove they can leverage AI to re-accelerate revenue growth. Companies like Databricks and Snowflake (SNOW) were cited as examples already doing this.

Takeaways

  • This is a contrarian/bullish opportunity. The sector is deeply out of favor, but significant money is starting to bet on a rebound.
  • Investors should look for SaaS companies that are not just talking about AI but are actively using it to accelerate growth. The upcoming earnings reports will be critical to see if this rebound has legs.
  • Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) were highlighted as two blue-chip names that influential analysts believe are undervalued.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The host is extremely bullish following a recent interview with CEO Anthony Noto.
  • Noto stated he believes the stock is undervalued and would be buying it himself if not for a trading blackout period ending March 1st.
  • Noto was very critical of Wall Street analysts, saying they are "dead wrong" on their valuation and that SoFi will begin publishing its own research and perspectives on how the company should be valued.
  • This aggressive and confident stance from the CEO is seen as a major positive catalyst.

Takeaways

  • The CEO's public conviction is a very strong bullish signal. The company is actively fighting the market's narrative that it's just a slow-growing bank.
  • This could be a compelling opportunity for investors who believe in the company's high-growth fintech model over the market's current bank-like valuation.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

  • The sentiment is very bearish and the situation is high-risk.
  • The stock was down over 25% on news that Novo Nordisk (NVO) is suing them over their compounded GLP-1 weight-loss drug.
  • This lawsuit highlights the biggest criticism of HIMS: a perceived lack of a competitive moat.
  • The lawsuit creates a major legal and financial overhang on the stock, which could be "range bound for a long time" even if earnings are good.
  • The host noted that for some investors, the company's investment thesis has changed for the worse, as it has pivoted too hard into this risky area.

Takeaways

  • This is a "falling knife" situation. The lawsuit from a pharmaceutical giant like Novo Nordisk is a serious threat to a core part of their recent growth strategy.
  • Investors should exercise extreme caution. The risk of a permanent ban on selling these drugs and potential fines is significant. The host presented selling, even at a loss, as a reasonable action when an investment thesis fundamentally changes like this.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, dropping to $60,000 during last week's sell-off before recovering to the high $60,000s.
  • The host and guests expressed confusion about Bitcoin's recent weakness, as it has not performed like a traditional inflation hedge (such as gold) in the current environment.
  • One theory is that the deflationary power of AI is a short-term headwind for inflation-hedge assets.
  • The drop to $60,000 is seen as a potential bottom for this market cycle.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment is neutral to cautiously optimistic. While the short-term price action is puzzling, the belief is that the recent low of $60,000 may have been a major bottom.
  • Long-term drivers like the halving cycle remain intact. The asset remains highly volatile.

Other Stock Mentions

  • AMD (AMD): Bullish. The host bought the stock on the dip from $255 to $200, calling the sell-off "stupid." He sees it as a major beneficiary of the Big Tech CapEx cycle alongside NVIDIA.
  • AppLovin (APP): Bullish. A short-seller retracted a negative report, admitting to "critical mistakes." This is a major positive catalyst that could cause a short squeeze. The stock was up 10% on the news.
  • Micron (MU) & Memory Stocks: Cautious/Bearish. News that Samsung is ramping up production of HBM memory is a negative for the sector, as it could increase supply and hurt profit margins. These stocks are highly volatile.
  • Oracle (ORCL): Bullish. The stock was up over 9% on the day following an analyst upgrade. It is seen as a strong player in the data center and AI theme.
  • Pagaya (PGY) & Monday.com (MNDY): Bearish. Both stocks were down significantly (-21% and -18% respectively) after reporting earnings. Even though they had a "double beat" on EPS and revenue, weak guidance was the likely culprit, showing how unforgiving the market is right now.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!