Meta (META) is a top investment idea following its AI chip deal with NVIDIA, with a potential move towards the $680s as long as it holds support above $636. Conversely, this deal is a major headwind for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which could fall toward $171.50 if it breaks its critical $190 support level. The broader Software/SaaS sector faces extreme selling pressure due to AI fears, with stocks like Salesforce (CRM) potentially heading towards $150. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) is technically weak and risks a major drop into the $20,000s if it fails to hold support around $50,000. For market leader NVIDIA (NVDA), a sustained breakout above the $193 resistance level would be a strong bullish signal to buy.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Major Catalyst: NVIDIA announced a multi-year, multi-billion dollar strategic partnership with Meta (META). NVIDIA will sell Meta millions of its next-generation chips, including Blackwell, Rubin, and Grace CPUs, for Meta's AI infrastructure.
  • This deal solidifies Meta as the second-largest buyer of NVIDIA chips.
  • The news caused NVDA stock to rise over 1.5% in after-hours trading, reaching as high as $188.
• 13F Filing Insights:
  • Prominent investor David Tepper sold 10% of his NVIDIA stake in Q4.
  • NVIDIA's own 13F filing revealed it sold its entire stake in several companies, including Arm (ARM), Applied Digital (APLD), and Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX).
• Technical Analysis: The stock has been trading sideways for about seven months, range-bound between the low $170s (support) and $193 (resistance).
  • It recently bounced off a key technical support level at $179.
  • The hosts noted that despite the good news, the after-hours pump faded, highlighting that positive news isn't sticking in the current market.

Takeaways

• The partnership with Meta is a massive fundamental positive, reinforcing NVIDIA's dominance in the AI chip market.
• Despite the strong news, the stock remains in a long-term consolidation pattern. A sustained break above the $193 resistance level would be a very bullish signal.
• The sale of its stake in Arm and other companies is a notable move, suggesting a portfolio rebalancing by NVIDIA's investment arm.

Meta (META)

• Major Catalyst: The strategic partnership with NVIDIA to build out its AI infrastructure caused the stock to jump over 1% after hours, breaking above $650.
  • The deal involves deploying millions of NVIDIA chips and is seen as a major validation of Meta's AI strategy and massive capital expenditure plans.
• 13F Filing Insights:
  • Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) initiated a large new position, buying 2.6 million shares.
  • David Tepper (Appaloosa) increased his position by 62%.
  • Chase Coleman (Tiger Global) sold some of his position.
• Technical Analysis: The stock held a key support level at $636.
  • A potential bounce could take it towards the $680s - $690s.
  • If it loses the $636 support, the next major level to watch is $600. The host noted they would get interested in adding to their position closer to $500.

Takeaways

• Sentiment is very bullish due to the NVIDIA partnership and significant buying from respected investors like Bill Ackman and David Tepper.
• The stock is validating its heavy spending on AI, which is now seen as a major strength.
• Technically, holding the $636 level was important. Watch to see if the positive news can propel it out of its current consolidation range and towards the $690s.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) 13F Insights

• Warren Buffett's firm made several significant changes to its portfolio in Q4, signaling a rotation out of certain big tech names.
• Positions Sold/Reduced:
  • Sold 77% of its Amazon (AMZN) stake.
  • Sold 4% of its Apple (AAPL) stake.
  • Sold 9% of its Bank of America (BAC) stake.
• Positions Bought/Increased:
  • Initiated a new position in The New York Times (NYT), buying $350 million worth of stock. This was seen as the most surprising move.
  • Added 7% to its Chevron (CVX) position.
  • Added 9% to its Chubb (CB) insurance position.
  • Added 12% to its Domino's Pizza (DPZ) position.
• No Change: Kept its positions in Google (GOOGL) and UnitedHealth (UNH) the same.

Takeaways

• Berkshire is taking profits in some of its biggest tech winners (Amazon and Apple) and reallocating capital to energy, insurance, and consumer brands.
• The purchase of The New York Times is a contrarian bet on "old media" that caught the market by surprise.
• The selling of Amazon likely contributed to the stock's weakness after hours.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• Bearish News: The stock fell sharply by over 3% in after-hours trading. This was a direct reaction to the NVIDIA/Meta partnership announcement.
  • The market is interpreting the deal as Meta choosing NVIDIA over AMD for a significant part of its AI build-out, reducing AMD's potential market share.
• 13F Filing Insights: David Tepper sold 70% of his AMD position in Q4, a significant reduction from a major investor.
• Technical Analysis: The chart is technically weak.
  • It failed to hold the $208 level.
  • A critical support level to watch is $190. If the stock breaks below this level, the host believes it could fall very quickly to $171.50.
  • The next major support level below that is around $145.

Takeaways

• The NVIDIA/Meta deal is a significant headwind for AMD in the short term, as it creates a narrative of AMD losing out in the AI arms race.
• The stock is technically vulnerable. Investors should watch the $190 support level closely, as a break could trigger a much larger sell-off.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

• Earnings: The company reported a strong "double beat" on earnings and revenue.
  • EPS beat expectations by 10% and was up 30% year-over-year.
  • Revenue beat by 1% and was up 15% year-over-year.
  • Fiscal year 2026 guidance was also ahead of expectations.
• Market Reaction: Despite the strong results, the stock initially pumped to be up 7% after hours before reversing sharply and dumping to be down over 7%.
  • The host attributes this to the broader, "insane" sell-off in all software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks, even though he believes cybersecurity should be immune.
  • The company trimmed its annual profit forecast due to costs from recent acquisitions, which likely contributed to the sell-off.
• Technical Analysis: The chart trend is now considered "broken." The price action is being compared to the major breakdown Netflix experienced in the past.

Takeaways

• This is a prime example of strong company fundamentals being ignored due to negative market sentiment toward an entire sector.
• The market is treating cybersecurity like any other software company at risk of AI disruption, a thesis the host strongly disagrees with.
• The sharp reversal after a strong earnings report is a very bearish sign, indicating that sellers are firmly in control.

Google (GOOGL)

• 13F Filing Insights:
  • Stanley Druckenmiller bought calls on the stock.
  • David Tepper added 30% to his position.
  • Bill Ackman sold 86% of his GOOG (Class C) shares, taking significant profits, but still holds a large position in GOOGL (Class A) shares.
  • Berkshire Hathaway made no changes to its position.
• Technical Analysis: The $295 level is a critical support level, representing the bottom of its recent trading range.
  • The stock bounced off this level during the day.
  • If $295 is lost, the host sees a potential pullback to the $250 area, which is near the 200-day moving average.

Takeaways

• There are mixed signals from top investors, with Ackman taking major profits while others remain bullish.
• The $295 price level is the most important area to watch. A sustained break below it would be very bearish and could open the door to a drop to $250, which could be a more attractive entry point for long-term investors.

Amazon (AMZN)

• 13F Filing Insights: There were sharply conflicting actions from major investors.
  • Berkshire Hathaway sold 77% of its position.
  • Bill Ackman increased his position by 65%.
  • David Tepper sold 12% of his position.
• Technical Analysis: The stock has already experienced a significant pullback.
  • The host is not interested in buying at the current price around $200.
  • A key price of interest for a potential bounce is $188 - $189.
  • To become bullish again, the stock needs to reclaim the $211 level.
  • A more meaningful area to add to a long-term position would be closer to the $170s.

Takeaways

• Top investors have completely opposite views on Amazon, creating a confusing picture.
• The stock is in a technical downtrend and struggling to find support. While it's down a lot, it may not be "cheap" enough to attract buyers yet.
• Watch for it to hold the $188 area; a break below could lead to a further decline toward the $170s.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

• Sentiment: The host's technical analysis is very bearish on the crypto market.
• Bitcoin (BTC):
  • The chart "does not look good." The recent recovery attempt was not a strong "V-shape" and has devolved into choppy, sideways action.
  • If the key support level around $50,000 does not hold, the next major support area is not until the $20,000s.
• Ethereum (ETH):
  • The recent bounce was described as "sad" and weak.
  • Ethereum's price action is expected to follow Bitcoin's. If Bitcoin falls, Ethereum will fall with it, potentially to $1,400 - $1,500 or lower.

Takeaways

• The technical picture for the two largest cryptocurrencies is weak, with significant downside risk.
• The host advises patience and is waiting for a much stronger signal before becoming bullish. The possibility of a return to the $20,0s for Bitcoin was explicitly mentioned as a risk if current support levels break.

Software & SaaS Sector (IGV, CRM, NOW)

• Sentiment: The entire sector is experiencing a major sell-off, which the host calls "SaaS Armageddon."
• Catalyst: The market fears that AI will disrupt and replace many traditional software business models.
• Key Mentions:
  • ServiceNow (NOW): The stock fell even after the CEO announced his intent to buy $3 million worth of shares, showing how negative the sentiment is.
  • Salesforce (CRM): The chart is "screaming $150." It has broken key support and has earnings at the end of the month, which could add more volatility.
  • Adobe (ADBE): Is at a key support level around $260. If that doesn't hold, the next stop could be near $200.
• Technical Analysis: The software ETF IGV is described as "ultra weak" and is sitting on its 200-week moving average, a critical long-term support level.

Takeaways

• The software sector is facing powerful headwinds from AI disruption fears.
• Even positive news (like insider buying at NOW) is failing to lift stocks.
• Investors should be extremely cautious with this sector. Many stocks have broken key technical levels, suggesting more downside is possible. The host specifically mentioned not to "bottom fish" on names like Intuit (INTU) before earnings.