MARKETS HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH, MEMORY DOWN, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
MARKETS HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH, MEMORY DOWN, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
14 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 51 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • SPY remains bullish if it holds above 770; a sustained move above 779–780 could open a path toward 800.
  • NVDA is a breakout candidate: watch for a daily close and hold above 245, with 260 as a potential target; 235 is a key level to monitor.
  • Consider PENG after its strong earnings beat and raised outlook, but account for volatile trading and wait for the market to confirm its reaction.
  • INTC offers a potential pullback entry if it holds near 110 and reclaims 120; earnings are scheduled for October 22.
  • BTC has a conditional upside scenario toward $102,000 over three to six months if it holds around $79,000.
Detailed Analysis

S&P 500 (SPY)

  • The S&P 500 closed at a record high near 779, despite giving back some gains late in the session. The host noted that the index is top-heavy: a pullback in the largest stocks could weigh on the broader market.
  • A technical guest described a bullish October signal across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow. The guest said 770 was the level that would invalidate the signal, while a move holding above roughly 779–780 the following week would suggest continuation toward 800.
  • The guest cited November through January as historically the strongest three-month stretch, while cautioning that this was a seasonal tendency, not a guarantee. The discussion also mentioned midterm-election uncertainty, oil near $90, and the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.27%.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was broadly bullish on the market while emphasizing confirmation and the 770 support level. The host also relayed bearish investor Michael Burry’s view that markets were in a “denial” phase that could last six to nine months; this was presented as a contrasting opinion, not a forecast endorsed by the hosts.

Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)

  • The technical guest said QQQ had a bullish signal and described 810 as a potential next level.
  • The Dow also produced the guest’s desired October technical signal. The guest viewed it as a comparatively attractive “trade location,” though noted that the index includes a mix of large technology and legacy companies.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s view was that both indexes could participate in a seasonal rally if their signals hold. These were technical observations, not guarantees of further gains.

Memory and Data-Storage Stocks

  • Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) fell sharply after a headline about Toshiba increasing investment in hard-drive manufacturing capacity resurfaced. The discussion focused on fears that added supply could eventually weaken pricing power, potentially by 2030.
  • The host said Micron (MU) was also affected, partly because it has some SSD and NAND exposure. Micron’s planned $20 billion increase in capital spending was discussed as a possible source of concern about future supply, even though the company’s demand outlook and stated margin expectations remained strong.
  • SK hynix fell more sharply than Micron, while SanDisk (SNDK) also declined. The discussion suggested SanDisk could be more exposed to the SSD business.
  • The technical guest said Micron had already had a strong run and was less attractive for an immediate entry than some other stocks. The guest cited roughly $979 as a potential pullback level to watch.
  • The discussion did not identify a new, clearly confirmed catalyst for the day’s declines. The hosts noted uncertainty about why some memory-related names were falling more than others.

Takeaways

  • The main issue raised was the possibility that increased storage capacity could affect future pricing power—not a confirmed collapse in current demand.
  • Investors following the group may want to distinguish among companies’ exposure to hard drives, SSDs, and NAND. The transcript offered a specific Micron pullback level, but also emphasized that the near-term move was difficult to explain.

Penguin Solutions (PENG)

  • Penguin reported a triple beat: revenue of $567 million versus $519 million, EPS of $1.00 versus $0.77, and adjusted EBITDA of $93 million versus $71 million.
  • The company reported strong year-over-year growth, including revenue growth of 68% in the reported quarter, and raised its fiscal 2027 expectations for net sales and EPS.
  • Management said its AI infrastructure business was accelerating and its memory business remained strong. The company also disclosed more than $3 billion in signed, multi-year AI infrastructure contracts with a publicly traded neocloud customer.
  • Penguin said it had won additional neocloud customers and described a partnership with Lectra involving distributed AI micro-data centers.

Takeaways

  • Results and management commentary pointed to growth across both AI infrastructure and memory. The stock’s after-hours trading was volatile despite the strong report, so the market’s response remained uncertain.

Semiconductor and AI Hardware Stocks

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA held up better than many memory stocks on the market’s downbeat close. The technical guest described the stock as being in an active breakout, with $235 as a level to watch and $260 as a potential target if momentum continued.
  • The guest said a daily close above $245, followed by a hold above that level, would provide stronger confirmation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bullish on NVIDIA’s technical setup but emphasized that confirmation mattered. The $235–$245 area was presented as a key zone to monitor.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD remained near $650 after giving back some intraday gains. The technical guest described the stock as being in an active breakout, with potential levels around $667 and $690, and the $700s as a possible next area.
  • The guest cautioned against chasing after the sharp move and said the stock was close to near-term resistance.

Takeaways

  • The technical view was positive, but the guest saw less near-term upside relative to the stock’s recent run and advised caution about chasing momentum.

Intel (INTC)

  • The technical guest preferred Intel’s setup to AMD’s at that point, citing a pullback that offered a more favorable entry location.
  • The guest identified roughly $110 as support, $120 as a level to reclaim, and said a move below $110 would weaken the setup. Intel’s earnings were noted as scheduled for October 22.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored waiting to see whether Intel could hold support and regain $120. The guest viewed the setup as more attractive if the price held near support, rather than buying after a sharp move.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • Marvell was cited for management’s guidance of 50%–60% compound annual growth over the next five years. The host described the business outlook as strong, while noting that the stock had swung sharply during the day.
  • The technical guest identified about $248 as a potential pullback level and discussed $300 as a level the stock had reached intraday.

Takeaways

  • The transcript paired an optimistic long-term growth outlook with a reminder that the stock could remain volatile. The $248 level was the guest’s cited pullback reference.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Broadcom gave back some of its intraday gains but remained part of the AI and semiconductor strength discussed.
  • The technical guest said the stock could move toward $417–$430, while also noting that it had already had several strong sessions and could pull back. The guest described taking profits on part of a short-dated options trade while retaining longer-dated exposure.

Takeaways

  • The guest remained constructive but cautioned against assuming the recent rally would continue without pauses. The $417–$430 area was a technical target mentioned in the discussion.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and AEHR Test Systems (AEHR)

  • TSMC (TSM) turned slightly red late in the session, but no company-specific catalyst was identified.
  • AEHR Test Systems (AEHR) fell about 11%. The hosts were unsure of the cause and discussed conflicting information about its earnings date, mentioning October 12 and October 20. The guest described the stock as a small, volatile company that trades at a high multiple.

Takeaways

  • The transcript did not establish a clear reason for AEHR’s decline or a confirmed earnings date. The discussion therefore offered no firm directional conclusion on the stock.

AI Data-Center and Neocloud Stocks

Nebius (NBIS)

  • Nebius gained on the day but was described by the technical guest as still consolidating. The guest said a move above roughly $280 would help confirm a breakout.
  • The guest discussed a longer-term technical possibility of $400–$450 next year, while cautioning that the stock had not yet broken out of its current range.

Takeaways

  • The long-term technical outlook was optimistic, but the guest said the breakout was not yet confirmed. The $280 area was the near-term level to watch.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • CoreWeave was described as consolidating near resistance, with the technical guest saying it needed to show more strength before the setup became compelling.
  • The guest warned that neocloud names could be affected by market rotation, particularly if investors sell recent winners to fund other purchases.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored waiting for clearer price strength rather than anticipating a breakout. No specific price target was given.

Applied Digital (APLD) and IREN (IREN)

  • The guest described Applied Digital as a potentially constructive setup ahead of earnings, while noting that the report could move the stock.
  • For APLD, the guest cited support around $22.59, with a lower level near $17 if that support failed.
  • For IREN, the guest identified support around $39.95 and a lower area near $30. A short-term move toward $50 was discussed as a possibility.

Takeaways

  • The guest viewed the charts as potentially attractive but emphasized support levels and upcoming earnings. The transcript did not provide a fundamental assessment sufficient to confirm the technical outlook.

Energy and Power for Data Centers

Constellation Energy (CEG), Vistra (VST), and GE Vernova (GEV)

  • A $4 billion Google deal involving nuclear power was discussed as a catalyst supporting energy and power-related stocks.
  • Vistra and GE Vernova were among the names that held up relatively well during the session. The host also noted that the CEG-related news had helped the group.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlighted power supply—particularly nuclear energy—as a potential beneficiary of rising data-center demand. The transcript did not give specific price targets for these stocks.

Uber (UBER) and Grab (GRAB)

  • Uber fell after agreeing to acquire a catering company for $2.3 billion. The company reportedly serves about 93% of Fortune 500 companies.
  • The host viewed the deal as potentially helpful to margins and as a way to compete with DoorDash, but said the market often reacts negatively when an acquisition uses cash from the balance sheet.
  • Grab also fell, which the host attributed to possible sympathy with Uber.

Takeaways

  • The potential investment case discussed was incremental margins and a new competitive channel; the concern was the $2.3 billion cash outlay and the market’s reaction to acquisitions. The transcript did not establish whether the deal price was attractive.

Constellation Brands (STZ)

  • Constellation Brands, which owns Modelo and other alcohol brands, reported revenue of $2.63 billion versus $2.54 billion and EPS of $3.74 versus $3.55.
  • The host said revenue was up 6% year over year and EPS up 3% year over year. The results beat estimates, though growth was modest.
  • The company was discussed as a source of information about consumer spending and alcohol demand. The host cited declines in alcohol consumption, while acknowledging that one of the figures mentioned was hyperbolic.

Takeaways

  • The report was a modest beat rather than a high-growth story. Investors may find management’s commentary on consumer demand more informative than the headline beat.

Large-Cap Technology Stocks

Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • The technical guest described Alphabet as setting up for a potential move ahead of earnings, citing tightening moving averages and a possible “squeeze.”
  • The guest discussed $360–$375 as a potential near-term range, while noting that the stock had already moved toward $350.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s outlook was bullish if the stock continued to hold above its moving averages. The transcript framed the potential move as a technical setup, not a fundamental forecast.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft slipped late in the session after trading higher. The technical guest said the stock could move toward $550 in the near term and discussed $600 as a subsequent level.
  • The guest also suggested $700 next year, while acknowledging that it was a longer-term possibility. The discussion raised the risk that disappointment in Azure or Copilot growth could hurt the stock around earnings.

Takeaways

  • The technical view was bullish, but the transcript specifically flagged Azure and Copilot performance as important expectations to watch.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The technical guest cited support near $245 and suggested the stock could move toward $270–$275 ahead of earnings.

Takeaways

  • The guest viewed the stock’s support area as constructive and saw potential for further gains before earnings, while distinguishing that setup from the uncertainty around the earnings report itself.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta was described as having benefited from enthusiasm around its Muse AI initiative and the resolution of a legal issue.
  • The technical guest said $800 by year-end was possible and discussed $1,000 as a possibility by the second quarter of the following year. The guest also said a pullback toward $690 could occur without invalidating the broader setup.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bullish but did not expect a straight-line rise. The guest characterized a pullback or period of consolidation as normal.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The technical guest described Tesla as consolidating and identified $398–$428, including a prior high near $415, as an important area.
  • The guest advised against chasing the stock at that point and said it might continue moving sideways while its moving averages catch up.

Takeaways

  • The technical view was to wait for clearer direction rather than chase the recent move. No firm breakout confirmation was identified.

Other Stocks with Specific Discussion

Shopify (SHOP)

  • Shopify was discussed in connection with market worries about agentic AI and the possibility that AI could disrupt parts of e-commerce.
  • The technical guest remained constructive and discussed a possible move toward $200, but the hosts disagreed on whether that was realistic by year-end.

Takeaways

  • The conversation presented Shopify as a potential beneficiary or survivor in an AI-driven commerce environment, but the timing of a move to $200 was disputed.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Robinhood fell late in the session. The technical guest identified $108 as a possible pullback level and $95–$85 as a deeper potential buying area if the stock weakened further.
  • The guest said the stock was not the market’s current “shiny” name and expressed skepticism about the crypto rally.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s technical view was to watch for a pullback rather than chase. The guest did not provide a specific long-term target.

Akamai (AKAM)

  • The technical guest said Akamai was behaving as expected after a financing-related headline and cited an earlier buying area around $105–$101.
  • The guest expressed a long-term view that the market may not yet fully understand Akamai’s role in cloud and content-delivery infrastructure, while saying the thesis could take time to play out.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was based on a longer-term thesis, not a near-term catalyst. The guest emphasized that investors should form their own conviction rather than rely on someone else’s.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir held up during the session. The technical guest described the chart as constructive and discussed $200–$205 as a possible level, with $300 also mentioned in a longer-term technical discussion.

Takeaways

  • The guest remained positive but said the stock was not at the most attractive entry point and could move gradually rather than quickly.

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

  • CrowdStrike was described as being in a strong momentum move, with $300 identified as a nearby level.
  • The technical guest noted possible bearish divergence in momentum indicators, suggesting the move could be getting late.

Takeaways

  • The guest acknowledged the strength of the trend but flagged the possibility that momentum was maturing. The transcript did not present a clear buy or sell recommendation.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • Rocket Lab was described as consolidating, with a trading range around $62–$77. The technical guest said a move above $85 would be needed to show stronger renewed momentum.
  • The guest also expressed a positive long-term view of space-related stocks, while describing the current phase as accumulation rather than a confirmed breakout.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored monitoring the range and waiting for a move above $85 for stronger confirmation. No specific timeline was given.

Nokia (NOK)

  • Nokia rose sharply and was described by the technical guest as moving in anticipation of earnings.
  • The guest cited $12–$13 as potential levels before earnings and said a sustained move above roughly $11.60 would be constructive.

Takeaways

  • The guest viewed the near-term setup positively but warned that pre-earnings gains could be reversed once results arrive.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • Bloom Energy rose, and the technical guest described it as a potential momentum or short-squeeze setup.
  • The guest discussed $302 as an important level for confirmation and $350 as a possible later level if the move continued.

Takeaways

  • The view was conditional: the stock needed to clear and hold its technical levels. The guest characterized the setup as volatile.

Ciena (CIEN), Credo (CRDO), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), and Arista Networks (ANET)

  • The technical guest cited strength in networking and optical-infrastructure stocks, linking the group’s momentum to Marvell’s growth outlook and data-center demand.
  • Ciena was described as having further potential after a strong move; Credo was discussed as potentially moving toward $250 if it cleared $229–$230.
  • AAOI was described as a volatile stock that could move toward $150–$175. Arista was discussed as a momentum name with a possible move toward $250.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identified networking infrastructure as a potential data-center growth theme, but several of the named stocks had already moved sharply. The guest’s view was to expect volatility rather than assume the gains would continue uninterrupted.

AppLovin (APP)

  • The hosts disagreed about whether AppLovin had bottomed. One view was that it needed more time to show that its advertising business could grow beyond mobile gaming ads.
  • The discussion mentioned competition from Unity and concerns about whether AppLovin’s recent growth could continue at the same rate.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presented the stock as uncertain, with the next earnings report viewed as important evidence. No clear buy recommendation was made.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The technical guest said Bitcoin could reach $102,000 if it held roughly $79,000 over the next three to six months.
  • The guest believed the lows were likely in and described pullbacks as potentially buyable, but also said the chart looked somewhat stretched and could move sideways before advancing.
  • The guest was skeptical that favorable policy developments alone were a reason to be bullish on crypto.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s technical outlook was conditionally bullish: $79,000 was the level cited for the $102,000 scenario. The guest expected potential chop along the way.

Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Shiba Inu (SHIB)

  • Ethereum was mentioned briefly, without a separate price target or developed investment thesis.
  • Solana and Shiba Inu were mentioned in joking remarks; the transcript did not offer a substantive investment case or specific recommendation for either.

Takeaways

  • The discussion did not provide enough information to draw an actionable view on ETH, SOL, or SHIB.

Additional Stocks and Themes Mentioned

  • Western Digital (WDC), Seagate (STX), Micron (MU), SK hynix, and SanDisk (SNDK) were the main storage and memory names discussed; their central shared concern was potential future supply and pricing pressure.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) and Home Depot (HD) were cited by the technical guest as possible large-cap stocks to examine, but no specific price targets were given.
  • NextDecade (NEXT), Twilio (TWLO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Costco? No—Costco was not discussed. Akamai (AKAM), Corning (GLW), Applied Materials (AMAT), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Netflix (NFLX), and Intuit (INTU) also received brief technical or thematic comments.
  • Other names mentioned in passing included Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Nike (NKE), McDonald’s (MCD), NVIDIA (NVDA), ServiceNow (NOW), Zeta Global (ZETA), Tempus AI (TEM), 10x Genomics (TXG), Moderna (MRNA), Novavax (NVAX), Unity Software (U), Klaviyo (KVYO), Braze (BRZE), Dell (DELL), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Texas Instruments (TXN), Extreme Networks (EXTR), A10 Networks (ATEN), Centrist? No specific ticker was clearly identified, and Uranium Energy (UEC) was mentioned in the nuclear-energy discussion.

Takeaways

  • The broader themes were AI infrastructure, networking, data-center power, and possible rotation away from crowded winners. Several stocks were mentioned only briefly, without enough company-specific analysis or confirmed catalysts to support a stronger conclusion.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ jason link - https://event.webinarjam.com/wwqn3/register/46o2lfx3?webinar_id=32 jason - https://x.com/PaperGainsInc 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - PENG Earnings 39:00 - SPY TA 48:30 - GOOGL TA 50:21 - AVGO TA 52:35 - GS TA 56:27 - MU TA 59:28 - RKLB TA 1:01:39 - MRVL TA 1:03:24 - AMD TA 1:06:20 - NVDA TA 1:08:20 - INTC TA 1:11:49 - NBIS TA 1:13:47 - CRWV TA 1:19:47 - QCOM TA 1:21:50 - APLD TA 1:23:30 - NOK TA 1:26:21 - MSFT TA 1:30:32 - META TA 1:34:12 - TSLA TA 1:36:08 - SPCX TA 1:41:30 - SOFI TA 1:48:39 - PLTR TA 1:51:30 - CRWD TA 1:55:29 - NEXT TA 1:56:45 - AKAM TA 2:00:00 - Rapid Fire
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!