The AI data center infrastructure theme is showing extreme strength, with Credo Technology Group (CRDO) being a standout after forecasting 200% revenue growth for fiscal year 2026. While this sector is highly bullish, investors should be prepared for significant volatility, as seen in stocks like Iren (IREN). In contrast, exercise caution with software companies vulnerable to AI disruption, such as Upwork (UPWK), which recently saw its stock plunge. On Semiconductor (ON) may present a long-term opportunity for believers in the EV and AI power trends after its stock dropped on weak near-term guidance. Finally, the stabilization of Bitcoin (BTC) around $70,000 is providing a supportive backdrop for crypto-related assets.

AI & Data Center Infrastructure

This was the most bullish theme discussed, often referred to as the "picks and shovels" play of the AI revolution. The core idea is that massive capital expenditure (CapEx) from tech giants is flowing down to the companies that build and power data centers. These stocks are noted as being highly volatile.

• Iren (IREN)

  • The stock was up a strong 10% on the day, moving from $30 last Thursday to $46.
  • The rally is fueled by persistent rumors that Iren will be a major beneficiary of a 10-gigawatt data center build-out by the private AI company Anthropic.
  • While the deal is not confirmed, the sentiment around all AI High-Performance Computing (HPC) names is extremely positive.
  • The speaker noted the stock saw a 35% decline recently before recovering, highlighting its volatility.

• Credo Technology Group (CRDO)

  • The stock was up 10% during the day and then jumped another 15-25% after hours.
  • The company released preliminary 3rd quarter revenue that massively beat expectations ($404-$408 million vs. $340 million expected).
  • Even more bullish, the company projected 200% revenue growth for fiscal year 2026.
  • This positive news also lifted its competitor, Astera Labs (ALAB), which rose 4% after hours.

• Nebius (Private company, but discussed as a key data center play)

  • The stock was noted as being up 8.3% to $93.26, with the speaker mentioning it's approaching $100.
  • Considered a more diversified business than pure-play data center builders because it also offers cloud services, providing a business model for after the initial "build-out" phase is complete.
  • The speaker noted that even at its recent lows around $69-$70, the company's valuation seemed too low given the value of its component businesses like ClickHouse and Taloka.

• Other Data Center Plays

  • Cypher (CIFR): Up 14% on the day.
  • Applied Digital (APLD): Up 9% on the day. Mentioned as doing a lot of work for CoreWeave, adding to its credibility.
  • CoreWeave (Private): Mentioned as having significant momentum.

Takeaways

• The investment thesis is that the AI build-out is a multi-year trend, and the companies providing the underlying infrastructure are major beneficiaries.
• This sector is experiencing extreme momentum and bullish sentiment, but comes with very high volatility. As the speaker noted, these stocks often move by double-digit percentages in a single day.
• Look for companies with strong revenue beats and forward-looking guidance, like Credo (CRDO), as these are being heavily rewarded by the market.
• Consider the business model beyond the initial build-out. Companies like Nebius and Iren that also have cloud service offerings may have a more durable long-term model compared to pure hardware/construction plays.

Amcor (AMKR)

• The stock was up 7% heading into its earnings report.
• Earnings Report (Post-Close):
  • Revenue Beat: Net sales of $1.89 billion vs. $1.84 billion expected.
  • Guidance Beat: Guided for Q1 sales of $1.6 billion - $1.7 billion, well above the $1.53 billion estimate.
  • EPS Beat: Beat on current quarter EPS.
  • EPS Guide Beat: Guided for Q1 EPS of 18 to 28 cents, with the midpoint beating the 21 cents Wall Street expected.
  • Margin Expansion: Gross margins expanded to 16.7% and operating margins to 9.8%, addressing a common concern about the business.
• The stock's after-hours reaction was volatile but settled around flat to up 2-4%, which the speaker attributed to the significant run-up it had during the day.
• The long-term bull case is tied to its position as the #1 packager in the U.S., building factories for giants like TSM, and its exposure to Apple (30-40% of revenue), which would benefit from a ramp-up in mobile device sales.

Takeaways

• Amcor delivered a strong "beat and raise" quarter, validating the recent positive momentum in the stock.
• The flat after-hours reaction suggests the positive news may have already been priced in by the 7% run-up during the day.
• The fundamental story appears strong, with expanding margins and a solid outlook. The speaker noted these results mean the stock "definitely doesn't need to go down to like $43, $44, like last week."

On Semiconductor (ON)

• The stock was up about 0.5% during the day before its earnings report.
• Earnings Report (Post-Close):
  • Revenue Miss: A very slight miss, with $1.53 billion in revenue vs. $1.54 billion expected.
  • EPS Beat: A slight beat, with $0.64 vs. $0.62 expected.
  • Gross Margin Miss: Came in at 36%, below the guided range of 36.9% to 38.9%.
  • Weak Guidance: The main issue was the Q1 EPS guide of 38 cents, which was significantly below the 58 cents the street was expecting.
• The stock dropped 5-7% in after-hours trading following the report.
• The long-term bull case is that ON is a key beneficiary of three major trends: EVs, solar, and AI data center power management. The CEO's comments focused on winning in these areas.
• The speaker believes the long-term thesis for 2027 is still intact, as the EV and solar sectors are showing signs of bottoming. However, the weak guidance and margin miss are causing near-term pain.

Takeaways

• The market is punishing ON for its weak forward guidance and miss on gross margins, despite the long-term narrative remaining positive.
• This is a classic case of a good long-term story hitting a short-term speed bump. Investors need to decide if they believe in the 2027 thesis enough to withstand the current negative sentiment.
• The speaker noted, "if they're not growing like crazy and they're missing on margins, yeah, the street's going to take them down."

Software Sector (CRM, NOW, UPWK, MNDY)

The sentiment around software was mixed, with a clear divide between large enterprise software and smaller, more vulnerable companies.

• The Bull Case (Dan Ives):

  • Argues that established enterprise software companies like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) are being "disrespected."
  • Believes they are too deeply integrated into businesses to be easily replaced or "structurally broken."
  • Sees 20-30% in potential incremental revenue from AI monetization that is not yet factored into their valuations.

• The Bear Case (Brad Gerstner & Market Action):

  • These companies must prove they can maintain growth to justify their high valuation multiples.
  • There is a risk of commoditization from AI.
  • Upwork (UPWK): The stock plunged 23% after hours on what was presumed to be terrible guidance. This is a prime example of the bear thesis, as AI could directly replace the freelance services offered on the platform.
  • Monday.com (MNDY): Was down 20%, highlighting weakness in software that serves small and mid-size businesses, which are more volatile clients.

Takeaways

• There is a major debate about the future of software in the age of AI. It's not a monolithic sector.
• Be cautious with software companies whose business models could be directly commoditized or replaced by generative AI, like Upwork. The market is punishing them severely.
• For large, entrenched enterprise players like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW), the key question is whether they can successfully integrate and monetize AI to re-accelerate growth and justify their premiums. Their upcoming earnings will be crucial.

Cryptocurrency (BTC & ETH)

• Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The price was noted as stabilizing around $70,000 ($70,700 - $70,800).
  • This stability is seen as a positive sign for the broader crypto market and for crypto-related stocks like Hut 8 (HUT), which has earnings soon.
  • The speaker mentioned reading that BTC could go back to $84k.

• Ethereum (ETH)

  • The price was noted at $2100.
  • The speaker wondered if the recent low around $1790 was the bottom for this cycle, given the "massive amount of deleveraging" that occurred.

Takeaways

• After a sharp decline, the crypto market is showing signs of stabilization, which is a cautiously optimistic signal.
• The performance of crypto-related equities (HUT, HOOD) is heavily dependent on the price stability and direction of major assets like Bitcoin.
• The market seems to have flushed out a lot of leverage, which could lead to a healthier consolidation phase or a base for the next move up.

Robinhood (HOOD)

• The stock was up 5% on the day, ahead of its earnings report tomorrow.
• The speaker, who owns the stock, noted he "Bought Back My Hood covered calls."
• The biggest issue for the stock is its perceived link to the crypto markets. As the speaker said, "it's tied to crypto, man... it's paying to crypto. Unfortunately."
• Earnings are viewed as a "coin flip," with the potential for a big move in either direction depending on guidance.
• The rollout of Hood Banking is seen as a positive step toward diversifying the business away from crypto trading fees.

Takeaways

• Robinhood's upcoming earnings are a high-risk, high-reward event.
• While the company is trying to diversify into banking, the market still largely views it as a proxy for crypto sentiment. A positive crypto market is a tailwind for HOOD.
• Pay close attention to guidance and any commentary on the adoption of their new banking and credit card products.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

• The stock experienced a "nice little bounce" from its absolute lows. It touched $16.35 and has recovered to $19.34.
• The stock was hit hard by a lawsuit from Novo Nordisk and was still down 15% on the day at the time of the podcast, despite having been down as much as 25%.

Takeaways

• The stock is highly volatile and currently driven by news flow related to the Novo Nordisk lawsuit.
• Investors who "bottom ticked" the stock near the lows have seen a quick profit, but significant headline risk remains.