JULY PCE DATA, NVIDIA EARNINGS TODAY, OIL DOWN, OPENAI EXECS LEAVE | MARKET OPEN
JULY PCE DATA, NVIDIA EARNINGS TODAY, OIL DOWN, OPENAI EXECS LEAVE | MARKET OPEN
20 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 44 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Long-term investors should capitalize on any short-term dip in Meta Platforms (META) into the $540–$550 range, targeting a rebound toward $600+ as multi-billion dollar legal overhangs clear.

Uber Technologies (UBER) presents an attractive growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity near $80–$81, backed by heavy institutional buying and an upside price target of $120.

For a tactical commodity-driven trade, accumulate American Airlines (AAL) between $13.75–$14.00 to target $16.50 as declining crude oil input costs boost near-term airline profitability.

Within the artificial intelligence hardware sector, investors can accumulate Broadcom (AVGO) on pullbacks toward $330–$350 ahead of earnings or sell cash-secured put options on NVIDIA (NVDA) at the $190 support level to enter at a discount.

Lastly, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) remains a high-conviction, multi-year catalyst investment to accumulate ahead of its confirmed blockbuster launch in late 2025.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Expected to report blockbuster quarterly earnings with Wall Street consensus revenue around $90 billion to $92.2 billion (expecting ~97% growth) and whisper numbers reaching $95 billion to $96 billion.
  • The average analyst price target has risen to $304, but the stock has experienced multiple "sell-the-news" post-earnings reactions across previous quarters despite solid beats.
  • Key headwinds and narrative risks facing the company include:
    • Scrutiny regarding "circular financing" and debt backstopping for major AI customer buildouts (e.g., OpenAI leases).
    • Political and local regulatory pushback (moratoriums on data centers in states like Texas and Florida).
    • Emergence of in-house custom silicon alternatives from hyperscalers and frontier AI labs (e.g., OpenAI's "Jalapeno" chip).
  • Implied volatility (IV) is unusually low at 5% (compared to the historical 8%–9%), indicating lower market expectations for an extreme post-earnings price swing.

Takeaways

  • NVDA remains the foundational centerpiece of the AI sector, but management commentary regarding credit health, sovereign AI demand, and data center sustainability will matter more to investors than the headline numbers.
  • Selling cash-secured puts around strong downside support levels (such as $190) offers a defined-risk strategy to generate option premium or acquire shares at a discount if post-earnings selling occurs.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Reached a nationwide settlement with state attorneys general resolving teen social media addiction lawsuits for up to $16.8 billion in damages plus an estimated $10 billion in legal expenses ($26.8 billion total financial impact).
  • The settlement includes mandatory feature changes for users under 18, including a default 2-hour daily limit, nighttime access restrictions, continuous screen-time prompts, and hidden like counts.
  • $5.3 billion of the settlement payout is structured to be contingent on competitors (TikTok and YouTube) adopting identical regulatory limits and matching financial contributions.
  • The company continues to trade at an attractive valuation below 20x P/E while growing revenue at roughly 30% year-over-year.

Takeaways

  • Settling the lawsuit eliminates a multi-month legal overhang that was suppressing valuation multiples.
  • Any short-term dip driven by the one-off financial charge into the $540–$550 range represents an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors targeting a move toward $600+.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Came under recent selling pressure after issuing $60 billion to $70 billion in debt offerings to provide financing support and guarantees for major AI chip customers, including Anthropic.
  • Developing custom ASIC and silicon solutions with major partners (including OpenAI and Meta), with industry reports suggesting custom chips could outperform standard merchant GPUs on specific inference workloads.
  • The market has expressed near-term caution regarding debt leverage and the monetization timeline of custom AI chips ahead of the 2026/2027 cycle.

Takeaways

  • AVGO offers premier exposure to the custom silicon and networking infrastructure boom.
  • Long-term investors can use pullbacks toward the $330–$350 range to accumulate shares ahead of earnings, dollar-cost averaging through short-term credit and financing concerns.

Vistra Corp (VST)

  • Emerging as a primary beneficiary of the AI data center power bottleneck, securing direct power agreements with mega-caps like Meta and Amazon, alongside Nvidia partnerships.
  • Attracting institutional buying from notable investors like Peter Thiel and David Tepper.
  • Currently trades at an attractive valuation multiple of approximately 8x EBITDA, representing a significant discount compared to utility peers like Constellation Energy (CEG) and Talen Energy (TLN).

Takeaways

  • VST offers a compelling, cash-generative entry into the structural energy shortage driven by artificial intelligence compute demand.

Uber Technologies (UBER)

  • Demonstrating fundamental strength trading around $80–$81, supported by top-tier institutional accumulation (including Bill Ackman and David Tepper) during the second quarter.
  • Currently valued at roughly 12x free cash flow, which remains deeply discounted for a leading platform business experiencing steady consumer usage.
  • Market concerns over Tesla robotaxi disruption are treated as premature and unreflected in actual operating data.

Takeaways

  • UBER represents an attractive growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) play with fundamentals supporting a long-term price target closer to $120.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)

  • Surged over 30% post-earnings following a revenue beat of $1.3 billion (vs. $1.25 billion consensus) and raised full-year EPS guidance to $13.60 (vs. $10.72 expected).
  • Operating margins expanded by 280 basis points year-over-year, aided in part by $1.75 per share from tariff refunds.

Takeaways

  • Strong execution and resilient consumer demand continue to fuel margin expansion, though investors should account for the one-time nature of tariff recovery benefits when modeling future quarters.

American Airlines (AAL)

  • Benefiting from macro tailwinds as crude oil prices decline from recent highs toward the $80/barrel mark, driven by de-escalating Middle East shipping tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Lower fuel input costs serve as an immediate profitability catalyst across the airline sector.

Takeaways

  • AAL serves as an effective tactical recovery trade around $13.75–$14.00, targeting a rebound to $16.50 if oil prices continue to stabilize in the low-to-mid $70s.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • BTC pulled back toward $77,000–$78,000, experiencing a temporary pause in the "debasement trade" as 10-year Treasury yields eased to 4.65% and energy prices fell.
  • Major commercial banks (including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo) are exploring stablecoin issuance via the Global Stablecoin Consortium under proposed Clarity Act standards.

Takeaways

  • Short-term crypto momentum may consolidate alongside falling bond yields and cooling inflation expectations.
  • Accelerating institutional stablecoin infrastructure remains a fundamental long-term catalyst for layer-1 smart contract ecosystems like ETH.

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

  • Confirmed that recent gameplay leaks of Grand Theft Auto VI were authentic, reaffirming a late 2025 release timeline with extended official gameplay reveals scheduled.
  • Anticipated baseline estimates of 50 million unit sales upon launch provide substantial earnings leverage that may not be fully reflected in current consensus estimates.

Takeaways

  • TTWO remains an asymmetric multi-year catalyst play driven by the launch of one of the highest-grossing entertainment assets in history.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ 00:00 - Intro 03:40 - PCE Data 06:30 - Meta 12:40 - Iran 44:00 - Market Open 1:03:10 - OpenAI Chip 1:25:00 - Meta lawsuit 1:49:30 - OpenAI Departures 2:21:00 - NVDA Numbers
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!