JOBS DATA, TESLA DELIVERIES, DOES THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL PASS | MARKET OPEN
JOBS DATA, TESLA DELIVERIES, DOES THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL PASS | MARKET OPEN
311 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 33 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Robinhood (HOOD) as it has strong momentum and faces a potential major catalyst with its likely S&P 500 inclusion in September. The financial sector is seeing heavy institutional buying, with banks like JPMorgan (JPM) signaling strength through massive share buybacks. Apple (AAPL) presents a time-sensitive opportunity, as July is historically one of its strongest months, with one analyst projecting a move to $220. Southeast Asian super-app Grab (GRAB) is showing significant pricing power and recently received a $6 price target from analysts. Finally, Bitcoin miners like Hut 8 (HUT) offer a unique way to invest in the AI theme by selling their excess power to data centers.

Detailed Analysis

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The main catalyst discussed was the Q2 delivery numbers. Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles.
    • This was slightly below the official street consensus of 387k-389k but significantly better than the lowered "whisper" expectations, which were in the 340k-360k range.
    • The host described this as a "nothing burger" and a "great" number because it beat the worst-case fears that were priced into the stock.
    • Deliveries are down year-over-year from 443k in Q2 2023, indicating some brand damage or market saturation, but the market was more focused on the beat against recent expectations.
  • The stock initially pumped over 7% in the pre-market on the news, hitting $321, before fading some of those gains after the market opened.
  • Tesla used incentives to achieve these numbers, including 1.9% APR and 0% APR on Cybertrucks with FSD, signaling they needed to stimulate demand.
  • A major political headwind mentioned is the "big, beautiful bill," which is set to remove the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. This is a negative for future demand.
  • The host shared a positive anecdote about Full Self-Driving (FSD), suggesting the user experience is a powerful, under-advertised selling point.

Takeaways

  • The delivery numbers removed a major short-term risk for the stock, as they were not as bad as feared. This could lead to a less negative outlook for Q2 earnings than previously anticipated.
  • The year-over-year decline in deliveries is a concern, but for now, the market is focused on the company beating lowered expectations.
  • The removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit is a significant risk factor for U.S. sales going forward and should be monitored.
  • The long-term bull case remains tied to the adoption and monetization of new technologies like FSD, which the host believes is a game-changer once experienced.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock showed significant strength, holding the $90 level before the podcast and then rallying dramatically during the live stream to break the key psychological level of $100.
  • The host is extremely bullish, citing the company's recent crypto announcements and strong execution.
  • A major upcoming catalyst is the potential for S&P 500 inclusion, possibly in September. Robinhood is noted as the second-largest company by market cap that is eligible for inclusion.
  • The host mentioned rolling his personal covered calls out to December with a $140 strike price, indicating a bullish long-term outlook and a desire to not get his shares called away.

Takeaways

  • The stock has immense positive momentum, breaking the $100 barrier, which could attract further institutional and retail interest.
  • S&P 500 inclusion is the next major catalyst to watch. If added, it would force index funds to buy tens of millions of shares, creating significant buying pressure.
  • The stock's recent performance reflects growing confidence from the market that its strategic pivots, especially in crypto, are paying off.

Financial Sector & Banks

  • Hedge funds were reported to be buying financial stocks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) at the fastest pace since 2016.
  • The bullish sentiment is driven by several factors:
    • An expected increase in IPOs and M&A activity, which generates fees for banks.
    • Potential for deregulation under the "big, beautiful bill."
    • All major banks passed their recent stress tests.
  • Major banks are signaling financial health through large capital returns. JPM announced a $50 billion buyback and a dividend increase.

Takeaways

  • The financial sector is viewed as a strong cyclical play that could benefit from the current economic and political environment.
  • Strong earnings from the big banks could provide a positive signal for the health of the broader economy and market.
  • Investors looking for exposure to this theme could look at the major banks that are returning significant capital to shareholders.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock has experienced a minor pullback, which the host characterizes as healthy profit-taking after a massive run.
  • The fundamental bull case remains strong and is tied to the continued growth of the AI sector.
  • A bullish analyst action was mentioned: Loop Capital recently raised its price target on NVDA to $250.

Takeaways

  • The long-term investment thesis for NVIDIA has not changed. The recent dip is seen as a potential opportunity for those who believe in the long-term AI story.
  • The stock's performance will continue to be a barometer for the entire AI industry.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Similar to NVIDIA, the stock has seen a healthy pullback after rallying from $60 to $148. The host believes this is just profit-taking.
  • Palantir announced a new partnership with Blue Forge US to bring its "warp speed" software to accelerate U.S. warship building and naval readiness.
  • This expands on their successful industrial software business, which includes a major partnership with Hyundai Heavy Industries in South Korea.

Takeaways

  • The recent dip is viewed as a consolidation phase rather than a bearish turn.
  • The company continues to win new contracts and expand into new verticals within both government and commercial sectors, reinforcing its growth narrative.

Oscar Health (OSCR)

  • The stock was down significantly (over 15%) due to negative news in the broader healthcare insurance sector.
  • A major competitor, Centene (CNC), which is a $30 billion company, withdrew its fiscal year 2025 guidance. This was attributed to uncertainty surrounding the "big, beautiful bill" and its impact on Medicare and Medicaid.
  • Barclays initiated coverage on Oscar with an underweight rating and a $17 price target.

Takeaways

  • This is a high-risk stock due to significant regulatory and political uncertainty. The "big, beautiful bill" could negatively impact subsidies that are crucial to Oscar's business model.
  • Investing in this space requires a deep understanding of the healthcare industry and government policy. The host warns that buying the dip without this knowledge is risky.

Bitcoin Miners (HUT, IREN, CLSK)

  • The entire Bitcoin mining sector was rallying strongly on the day of the podcast.
  • Two key catalysts were identified:
    1. Company-specific news: Hut 8 (HUT) signed a five-year energy contract, highlighting a trend of miners diversifying their business by selling power to AI data centers.
    2. Regulatory news: Senator Lummis reportedly published a proposal to remove double taxation for Bitcoin miners, which would be a major boost to the industry's profitability.

Takeaways

  • Bitcoin miners are evolving their business models to capitalize on the energy demands of the AI boom, creating a new potential revenue stream beyond just mining Bitcoin.
  • The sector is highly sensitive to regulatory news. The proposal from Senator Lummis is a significant bullish development to monitor.

Grab (GRAB)

  • The stock was up over 4% on the day.
  • CFRA Research initiated coverage with a $6 price target.
  • The main driver for the move was news that Grab is increasing its motorbike ride-hailing prices in Indonesia. This is seen as a very bullish sign of pricing power in a competitive market.
  • The host also noted that rumors of an acquisition of its competitor Gojek (GoTo) are resurfacing.

Takeaways

  • The ability to raise prices in a key market suggests improving unit economics and a strengthening competitive position, which is key to the company's path to profitability.
  • The new $6 price target from an analyst provides a potential benchmark for upside.
  • The stock is seeing increased trading volume and bullish options activity, indicating growing market interest.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple is being viewed as a potential "value play" among the Magnificent Seven stocks, as it has lagged its peers year-to-date.
  • A technical analyst was cited who noted that July is historically one of Apple's best-performing months.
  • Based on this historical pattern, the analyst projected a potential move to $220 by the end of July.

Takeaways

  • For investors looking for large-cap tech exposure that hasn't run as much as others, Apple could be an interesting candidate.
  • The stock may see seasonal strength in July, a pattern that has held for many years.

Webull (WEBL)

  • This was revealed as a "secret stock" pick from another analyst (Chris) on the show.
  • The investment thesis is that Webull is a "baby Robinhood"—an undervalued competitor with room to grow.
  • A price target of $30 by 2027 was mentioned, which would be a 3x return from its current levels.
  • The stock chart is described as "ugly," having fallen from a high of $85, but it appears to have bottomed around the $10 level.

Takeaways

  • This is a speculative, high-risk/high-reward idea. It requires a belief that the company can effectively compete with larger players like Robinhood and turn its business around.
  • The beaten-down stock price could represent a value opportunity if the "baby Robinhood" thesis plays out. More due diligence is needed.

Figma (Upcoming IPO)

  • The host expressed extreme bullishness for the upcoming IPO of the design software company Figma.
  • He highlighted its very strong fundamentals:
    • Profitable with $1 billion in cash.
    • Founder-led company.
    • Strong growth with 13 million monthly active users and 48% revenue growth.
  • The host believes the rumored initial valuation of $20 billion is too low and will likely be bid up significantly once it goes public.

Takeaways

  • Figma is presented as a high-quality, A-list IPO to watch.
  • Investors interested in growth stocks and new public offerings should keep an eye out for Figma's official S-1 filing to analyze its financials and valuation ahead of its market debut.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!