ISRAEL AND IRAN ATTACK EACH OTHER, TRUMP SAYS THERE'S A CEASEFIRE, CAN MARKETS REBOUND | MARKET OPEN
ISRAEL AND IRAN ATTACK EACH OTHER, TRUMP SAYS THERE'S A CEASEFIRE, CAN MARKETS REBOUND | MARKET OPEN
20 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The SpaceX IPO is the primary time-sensitive event, with an expected listing price of $135 and a potential opening range of $150–$180; retail investors should watch for a 30% allocation of the offering. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction buy on dips near the $202–$206 support level, especially as CEO Jensen Huang explicitly endorsed Qualcomm (QCOM) as a top pick for mobile AI. Intel (INTC) is emerging as a strategic long-term play as it transitions into the "TSMC of the U.S.," recently securing major manufacturing partnerships with Google and NVIDIA. In the memory sector, Micron (MU) continues to see record retail inflows and remains undervalued relative to the massive hardware requirements of next-generation AI platforms. For infrastructure exposure, Corning (GLW) is a key beneficiary of the AI build-out following multi-billion dollar fiber optic deals with Amazon and Meta.

Detailed Analysis

SpaceX (IPO Pending)

• The SpaceX IPO is described as one of the most monumental events in stock market history, expected to list around Friday. • Valuation & Pricing: The listing price is expected at $135, but the host predicts it could open between $150 and $180, potentially reaching a $2 trillion market cap on day one. • Demand: The IPO is reportedly 2x oversubscribed. Major investor Ron Baron has reportedly placed a $1 billion order to avoid dilution. • Market Impact: Analysts suggest the recent market sell-off (specifically the 5% NASDAQ pullback) may be due to "liquidity crunching," where investors sell other winners to free up cash for SpaceX shares. • Business Shift: While known for rockets and Starlink, the prospectus reportedly defines 85% of its Total Addressable Market (TAM) in AI.

Takeaways

Retail Opportunity: Approximately 30% of the $75 billion offering may be targeted toward retail investors. • Index Inclusion: The S&P 500 committee will not fast-track SpaceX; it must wait a year and show four quarters of profitability. However, the NASDAQ may fast-track it. • Volatility Warning: Expect high volatility in the weeks following the IPO as levered ETFs and options begin listing.


NVIDIA (NVDA)

• CEO Jensen Huang has been vocal over the weekend, stating that AI-related stocks are "cheap" and the build-out has just begun. • Partnerships: Announced a massive co-development deal with SK Hynix for memory across four new platforms: Vera Rubin (supercomputers), Vera (CPUs), RTX Spark (PCs), and Jetson Thor (robotics). • Sentiment: The host notes a shift in Jensen’s tone, becoming more of a "salesman" for the broader AI ecosystem to maintain market exuberance.

Takeaways

Support Levels: The stock showed resilience, bouncing off the $202–$206 range after the Friday sell-off. • Investment Strategy: Jensen explicitly labeled the current dip as an "opportunity" for investors, though the host cautions that NVIDIA’s own stock has been relatively "dead" compared to its partners recently.


Intel (INTC)

Major News: Reports suggest Google has secured Intel to manufacture over 3 million AI chips for 2028, and NVIDIA is testing Intel’s 18A process for future GPU architectures. • Strategic Position: Intel is increasingly being viewed as the "TSMC of the United States" due to its growing list of high-profile partners (Apple, Google, SpaceX, NVIDIA).

Takeaways

Bullish Momentum: The stock surged over 10-12% pre-market on the back of these partnership rumors. • Long-term Play: If Intel successfully executes its foundry (manufacturing) model for these tech giants, its current valuation may be justified by future earnings growth.


Qualcomm (QCOM)

Jensen’s Endorsement: In a recently surfaced clip from a financial analyst Q&A, Jensen Huang explicitly said, "Buy their [Qualcomm's] stock. It's good."Context: Jensen praised Qualcomm’s software stack for mobile devices, noting that NVIDIA does not intend to compete in the mobile phone space.

Takeaways

Sector Strength: Qualcomm is positioned as a winner in the "AI at the edge" (mobile devices) space, with a direct "buy" signal from the industry's most influential CEO.


Micron (MU) & Memory Sector

Retail Favorite: Micron saw $6.5 billion in net retail inflows over the last month, the highest among single stocks. • Supply Constraints: Elon Musk noted that there is not a single high-volume computer memory fab currently in the U.S., highlighting a massive supply/demand imbalance. • Growth Drivers: NVIDIA's new "Vera Rubin" platform will require significantly more High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

Takeaways

Valuation: Despite an 80% run, the host suggests memory names like Micron remain "cheap" relative to their forward earnings and the essential nature of their hardware in the AI stack.


Corning (GLW)

Amazon Partnership: Announced a multi-billion dollar pact with Amazon to boost U.S. fiber optic manufacturing. • Hyperscaler Strategy: This is the second of three major deals Corning signaled (the first was with Meta).

Takeaways

Infrastructure Play: Corning is a key beneficiary of the physical "AI build-out," providing the fiber optics necessary for massive data centers.


Investment Themes & Macro Insights

The "Asset-Light to Asset-Intense" Shift

Theme: Big Tech (Google, Meta, Microsoft) is shifting from high-margin software businesses to capital-intensive infrastructure businesses. • Insight: This explains why Google raised $80 billion and rumors of Meta raising equity are circulating. They need massive amounts of cash to buy GPUs and build data centers.

Geopolitical Risks

Israel-Iran: Despite Trump’s tweets regarding a ceasefire, tensions remain high. The market is currently "buying the dip" on ceasefire hopes, but any further escalation in Lebanon could spike oil prices and hurt stocks.

Software vs. Semiconductors

Sentiment: Software names (SaaS) like Wix, ServiceNow, and Salesforce are struggling as AI "commoditizes" software. • Insight: Capital is currently flowing out of software and into "hard" AI infrastructure (Semis, Memory, Data Centers).

Upcoming Catalysts

Apple WWDC: Focus on "Agentic Siri" and potential AI partnerships. • Macro Data: CPI and PPI data this week will be critical for interest rate expectations.

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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ singapore meetup: https://tinyurl.com/y75mh25b 00:00 - Intro 05:30 - Iran Israel 11:50 - Jobs Report 25:00 - Jensen 32:00 - BTC 34:50 - RKLB and SpaceX 44:00 - Market Open 1:01:00 - Trump AI Companies 1:17:45 - Consumer Credit 1:34:00 - Jensen on Qualcomm 2:05:00 - Steve Eisman on SpaceX
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!