IREN, DELL, WEBULL, ULTA, AFFIRM + MORE BIG EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
IREN, DELL, WEBULL, ULTA, AFFIRM + MORE BIG EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
254 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 26 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider momentum plays like IREN, which delivered blowout earnings driven by its successful AI pivot, and Affirm (AFRM), which soared after crushing profit and revenue estimates. Opendoor (OPEN) presents a unique opportunity, as its entire executive team canceling their stock selling plans is an undeniably bullish signal of insider confidence. A potential market pullback in September could present a buying opportunity for NVIDIA (NVDA) in the $158 - $162 range. That same pullback could also offer a strategic entry point for Palantir (PLTR) if the stock corrects to the $125 - $128 level. For crypto exposure, BitMine (BMNR) is a proxy for Ethereum (ETH), which may see a short-term dip to around $4,180 before its next major move higher.

Detailed Analysis

IREN (IREN)

  • The host identified IREN as a "retail favorite" in the hyperscaler space, which started as a Bitcoin miner.
  • Earnings Report (Post-Market): The stock was highly volatile after earnings but ended up significantly higher, closing up around 16% in after-hours trading.
    • Revenue Beat: Reported $187 million, beating expectations of $186 million. This represents a massive 255% growth year-over-year.
    • EPS Beat: Beat expectations by 111%, reporting 40 cents per share versus 19 cents expected.
    • Profitability: The company is now profitable, with $86 million in net income compared to a $28 million loss in the same quarter last year.
  • Key Catalyst: IREN announced a $168 million deal with NVIDIA to expand its GPU fleet, adding 2,400 NVIDIA GPUs to boost its AI cloud capacity. The host believes this AI data center business is the primary driver of its massive growth, more so than its Bitcoin mining operations.

Takeaways

  • IREN delivered a blowout earnings report, demonstrating a successful pivot towards AI infrastructure, which is driving explosive revenue growth and profitability.
  • The significant new investment in NVIDIA GPUs signals a continued aggressive expansion into the high-demand AI cloud market.
  • Despite being up over 124% year-to-date before this report, the strong results suggest there may be more room for growth, as confirmed by the strong positive reaction in the stock price.

Dell Technologies (DELL)

  • The stock was volatile after its earnings report, initially rising before falling over 4% in after-hours trading.
  • Earnings Report: It was a mixed report, showcasing a clear divide in the company's business segments.
    • The Bad: The company saw continued weakness in its traditional PC and storage segments, which make up a majority of its business.
    • The Good: The AI server business was the standout bright spot. Dell shipped $10 billion worth of AI solutions in the first half of its fiscal year, more than it shipped in the entire previous fiscal year.
  • Guidance: Dell raised its full-year AI server guidance to $20 billion. However, it issued a weak outlook for the third quarter, with concerns around operating margins seeming to be the primary reason for the stock's decline.

Takeaways

  • Dell represents a "tale of two companies": a declining legacy hardware business and a booming AI infrastructure business.
  • Investors are weighing the incredible growth in AI servers against the persistent weakness in the larger PC division and concerns about overall profitability.
  • The negative stock reaction suggests that, for now, the market is more concerned about the weak guidance and margin pressure than the impressive AI server demand.

Affirm (AFRM)

  • The stock had a wild reaction to earnings, initially dropping nearly 7% before reversing course and soaring to a 14% gain in after-hours trading.
  • Earnings Report: The host described the report as a "hell of a beat."
    • EPS Beat: Reported 20 cents per share, crushing expectations of 11 cents (an 82% beat). This marks the company's fourth profitable quarter.
    • Revenue Beat: Reported $876 million, beating estimates of $837 million and growing 33% year-over-year.
    • Key Metric Beat: Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) came in at $10.4 billion, well ahead of the $9.61 billion expected.
  • The initial negative reaction may have been due to full-year guidance that was only in-line with expectations, but the market quickly looked past that to focus on the stellar quarterly results.

Takeaways

  • Affirm demonstrated strong execution, with impressive beats on profit, revenue, and transaction volume, showcasing that its business is thriving.
  • The company is proving it can grow like a tech company (+33% revenue) while also expanding profitability, a powerful combination for investors.
  • The extreme volatility after the report highlights the difficulty of trading earnings, but the final positive outcome suggests strong underlying confidence in the business.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • On the day of the podcast, NVIDIA's stock was flat. The host viewed this as a bullish sign for the overall market, as it showed the S&P 500 could reach all-time highs without needing a contribution from NVIDIA.
  • China Sales: CEO Jensen Huang stated that talks to resume selling high-end chips to China will "take some time." The company's current strong guidance assumes zero sales from these chips, meaning any future sales would be pure upside.
  • Technical Analysis (Guest "Real Blonde Broker"):
    • Short-Term Bearish: Expects a pullback through September, potentially to the $158 - $162 range, viewing it as a healthy correction and a buying opportunity.
    • Long-Term Bullish: Believes the stock could make a run towards a $5 trillion market cap later in the year (November/December).

Takeaways

  • The core business remains exceptionally strong, with or without China sales. The fact that the market is hitting new highs even when NVIDIA is flat suggests a broadening rally, which is healthy.
  • A potential seasonal pullback in September could present a strategic buying opportunity for long-term investors, according to the guest analyst.
  • Any positive news on the resumption of sales to China would be a significant bonus catalyst on top of already stellar growth projections.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • The stock was the biggest loser of the earnings reports discussed, falling sharply by 8-13% in after-hours trading.
  • Earnings Report:
    • Revenue: A slight miss, reporting $2 billion versus $2.01 billion expected.
    • EPS: Came in-line with expectations at 67 cents per share.
  • Key Issues:
    • Weak Guidance: The primary cause for the drop was a Q3 revenue forecast that came in slightly below what analysts were hoping for.
    • China Exposure: The company has significant exposure to China, and there are concerns about how tariffs and geopolitical tensions could impact business.
    • Competition: There was mention of potential market share loss to competitors like Broadcom and a failed partnership with Microsoft for a custom chip.

Takeaways

  • Despite being a key player in the semiconductor space, Marvell is struggling to gain momentum and its weak guidance has spooked investors.
  • The slight revenue miss and soft forecast, combined with external risks like competition and China tensions, created a perfect storm for a negative reaction.
  • The stock was already down significantly year-to-date, and this report has only added to the negative sentiment surrounding the company.

Opendoor (OPEN)

  • The stock was up 6% during the day and rose another 3-4% after hours following major insider news.
  • Bullish News:
    • The President of Opendoor purchased 30,000 shares of the company's stock.
    • Even more significantly, the President announced that the entire executive team has canceled their pre-scheduled stock selling plans (10b5-1 plans).
  • Host's Perspective: While the host is personally not a fan of the company's fundamental business model, he stated that these actions by insiders are undeniably bullish signals.
  • Community Focus: The host noted that the investment thesis for many seems to be based on its "meme stock" potential rather than a fundamental turnaround.

Takeaways

  • The decision by the entire executive team to halt their scheduled stock sales is a massive vote of confidence in the company's future.
  • When insiders buy stock and stop selling after a 10x rally from the lows, it strongly implies they believe the stock has much further to run.
  • This news provides a powerful sentiment boost for investors, regardless of one's view on the company's long-term business viability.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

  • The stock hit a new 52-week high of $26.33.
  • Host's Portfolio Action: The host announced he closed out his options position in SoFi for a 10x gain. He clarified this was a strategic move to raise cash for potential market dips in September and not a bearish call on the company itself.
  • Technical Analysis (Guest "Real Blonde Broker"): The guest analyst views the stock as very strong, trading within a well-defined upward channel. She noted that the strength in the broader financial sector is a positive tailwind for SOFI.

Takeaways

  • SOFI is demonstrating strong price momentum, breaking out to new highs.
  • The positive sentiment is supported by both its individual performance and strength in the wider financial sector.
  • The host's decision to take profits after a 10x gain highlights the importance of locking in significant wins, especially when anticipating potential market volatility.

Other Investment Opportunities & Themes

Webull

  • Context: Discussed as an investment, though it is a private company. The stock was up 3-4% after hours following its earnings.
  • Earnings: Revenue grew an impressive 46% year-over-year.
  • Concerns: The host was very concerned about weak user growth metrics. Funded accounts grew only 9% and, more importantly, options contract volume grew only 8%. He called this "abysmal" for a trading platform in a bull market.
  • Takeaway: While top-line growth is strong, the underlying user and activity growth is lagging significantly behind competitors. This raises questions about its long-term competitive position and momentum.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Technical Analysis (Guest "Real Blonde Broker"): The guest analyst is short-term bearish, believing the stock is in a downtrend and could correct to the $125 - $128 level during the expected September market pullback. However, she is long-term bullish and would view that pullback as a buying opportunity for the next major run-up into 2026.

Ethereum (ETH) & BitMine (BMNR)

  • BMNR is viewed as a direct proxy for Ethereum. The host recently purchased more shares.
  • BMNR Fundamentals: The company has $775 million in cash and recently bought another $200 million worth of ETH.
  • ETH Technical Analysis (Guest "Real Blonde Broker"): She believes ETH is in a choppy corrective phase and could see a pullback to around $4,180 before ultimately starting its next major wave up to new all-time highs later in the year or beyond.
  • Takeaway: The investment case for BMNR is directly tied to your belief in the future price of Ethereum. Technicals suggest some short-term choppiness for ETH may be ahead before the next major leg up.

Surprise Winners

  • Several lesser-known companies had massive post-earnings moves, indicating broad market strength.
    • Ambarella (AMBA): An AI vision chip company, surged ~20%.
    • Petco (WOOF): A retail surprise, jumped ~16%, suggesting consumer spending remains resilient.
    • Elastic (ESTC): An enterprise search company, rose ~17%.
    • Autodesk (ADSK): A software giant, climbed 11% after correcting a mistaken earnings report.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - Market Close & Earnings 53:59 - PLTR TA 56:50 - NVDA TA 1:02:27 - HOOD TA 1:04:43 - TSLA TA 1:09:00 - BMNR 1:12:35 - SOFI TA 1:14:28 - IREN TA 1:17:18 - GRAB TA 1:21:50 - ETH & BTC TA 1:30:35 - AMD TA 2:04:05 - Jensen on Fox
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!