Investors should maintain NVIDIA (NVDA) as a core benchmark for the AI sector, though new entrants should be cautious of limited upside at current valuations. Rocket Lab (RKLB) serves as a high-conviction liquid proxy for the upcoming SpaceX IPO, with strong support levels to watch around $110. For speculative growth, the quantum computing sector—specifically Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS)—is gaining momentum following $100 million in federal backing. In the energy space, Oklo (OKLO) is a top pick for powering AI data centers with a Bank of America price target of $80. Finally, Apple (AAPL) remains a strategic defensive play ahead of WWDC, with the potential for "Agentic Siri" to act as a major catalyst for further gains.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Despite incredible earnings, the stock showed relative stagnation in the pre-market, though it remains a primary driver for the semiconductor sector. • NVIDIA's demand forecast is currently acting as a "set in stone" trajectory for the entire AI CapEx (Capital Expenditure) trade. • CEO Jensen Huang noted that demand is significantly higher than supply, with compute constraints affecting the market.

Takeaways

• Sector Tailwinds: If NVDA continues its growth, the entire supply chain is expected to "catch a bid." • Valuation Concerns: Analysts suggest there may be limited upside from current levels for new entrants, though it remains a core holding for many. • Market Indicator: NVDA's performance is the benchmark; if it fails to meet expectations, other AI-related trades will likely be de-rated.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

• The stock surged over 8% following a successful Electron launch and the announcement of a $90 million contract with the U.S. Space Force. • The contract involves designing and operating two geostationary satellites for space domain awareness. • The market is increasingly viewing RKLB as a "baby SpaceX," validating its thesis through consistent contract wins rather than just current financials.

Takeaways

• Momentum: The stock is holding levels above $110 and $130, showing strong execution. • SpaceX Proxy: Investors are using RKLB as a liquid proxy for the upcoming SpaceX IPO excitement. • Risk Factor: A 30% drawdown to the $100 level is possible if the macro environment shifts or execution fails, though current support is strong.

SpaceX (Private)

• Discussion centered on the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO (expected around June 12th). • New themes include "Data Centers in Space" and AI compute in space, leveraging free solar power and natural cooling. • High demand for shares: The IPO is expected to be massively oversubscribed, with major platforms like Schwab unable to guarantee allocations to high-net-worth clients.

Takeaways

• Market Stimulus: Analysts (like Tom Lee) suggest the IPO will provide a massive liquidity boost as early investors exit and reallocate capital into public markets. • Supply Overhang: A potential risk exists 90 days post-IPO when lockups expire, potentially releasing trillions in tradable stock. • Valuation: While fundamentals are hard to parse, the "Elon premium" and high demand are expected to drive the price upward initially.

Quantum Computing Sector (RGTI, QBTS, IONQ)

• Significant momentum in the sector following $100 million in federal government announcements. • Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS) saw double-digit percentage gains (up to 20%). • IBM also received a billion-dollar investment, boosting its position in the space.

Takeaways

• Government Backing: The primary driver is the U.S. government's strategic investment in quantum technology. • Speculative Growth: These are high-beta names; while the "Trump/Quantum trade" is popular, they remain volatile and subject to dilution risks.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

• The stock reclaimed the $100 level, benefiting from the broader "Space Mob" momentum and the SpaceX IPO narrative. • Despite a recent 15% drawdown, conviction remains high among community investors.

Takeaways

• Volatility: Investors should be prepared for aggressive swings (e.g., the recent drop from $85 to $64 before rebounding). • Strategic Position: Like Rocket Lab, it is being played as a satellite/telecom infrastructure winner in the new space race.

Apple (AAPL)

• Hitting all-time highs (reaching $309), with a market cap of $4.5 trillion. • The market is pricing in high demand and anticipation for the WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference).

Takeaways

• Safe Haven: Investors may be rotating into AAPL as a "defensive" tech play when they become nervous about higher-risk AI names. • AI Potential: The "Agentic Siri" (AI-integrated assistant) is a major upcoming catalyst that may not be fully priced in.

Investment Themes & Macro Insights

The "New Fed" Era

• Kevin Warsh is being sworn in as the new Fed Chair. • Sentiment: Hawkish. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate hikes are not off the table if inflation (driven by oil) doesn't abate. • Insight: The market is currently pricing in a potential rate hike by March 2025, a sharp pivot from earlier expectations of cuts.

Energy for AI

• Themes: AI data centers require massive power. • Stocks: Tesla (TSLA) Megapacks are being used by Meta; Bloom Energy (BE) and Oklo (OKLO) are being played as nuclear/alternative energy providers for data centers. • Insight: Bank of America initiated Oklo with an $80 target, highlighting the "pure-play nuclear" interest.

Iran Deal & Oil

• Context: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran (mediated by Qatar/Pakistan) regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. • Sentiment: Bullish for equities, bearish for oil. • Insight: If a deal is reached, oil (currently below $100) could drop further, potentially lowering inflation and allowing the Fed more breathing room.

Software vs. Semiconductors

• Observation: There is a "bifurcation" where high-quality software (SaaS) like ServiceNow (NOW) and Shopify (SHOP) are currently "hated" or lagging, while hardware/semis (AMD, ARM, NVDA) are soaring. • Insight: Contrarian investors are looking at SaaS for mean reversion, while momentum traders continue to ride the semiconductor wave.