HORRIBLE DAY FOR THE NASDAQ, BLOOM AND WESTERN DIGITAL EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
HORRIBLE DAY FOR THE NASDAQ, BLOOM AND WESTERN DIGITAL EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
12 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 50 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat weakness in QQQ as a possible staged buying opportunity, not a confirmed bottom; keep cash available in case selling continues.
  • Bloom Energy (BE) reported rapid growth and raised its outlook, but consider waiting for evidence that demand converts into deliveries and cash flow given its valuation and working-capital needs.
  • Broadcom (AVGO) was the clearest semiconductor preference discussed, conditional on major customer commitments being fulfilled.
  • Favor profitable, cash-generative businesses such as ServiceNow (NOW), Adobe (ADBE), or Intuit (INTU) if the rotation away from capital-intensive AI suppliers continues.
  • Avoid rushing into financing-sensitive neoclouds such as CoreWeave (CRWV); even the bullish long-term view on Nebius (NBIS) came with near-term funding and volatility cautions.
Detailed Analysis

Nasdaq and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

  • The Nasdaq and QQQ fell sharply, with QQQ nearing a level the hosts described as below $700. The hosts characterized the sell-off as concentrated in AI and semiconductor stocks rather than a broad collapse across the market.
  • One host was inclined to buy the dip but cautioned that selling could continue and investors should avoid deploying all their available cash too early.
  • A guest argued that tech selling had become crowded and that the market might be nearing the later stages of the sell-off. Other participants emphasized that the timing of a bottom was uncertain.

Takeaways

  • Treat dip-buying as a staged decision rather than assuming one down day marks a bottom; the discussion specifically highlighted the risk of drawn-out selling and investors eventually selling at lower prices.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

  • The S&P 500 was down about 1%, less than the Nasdaq, which the hosts viewed as evidence of resilience in other parts of the market.
  • They noted a rotation toward businesses with steadier cash flow, including payment networks and some software stocks.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests monitoring whether weakness remains concentrated in AI-related names or spreads to broader sectors. That distinction could affect how investors assess the overall market’s risk.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • Bloom reported third-quarter revenue of $1.24 billion, up 138% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.94, up 527%. Management raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.4–$4.6 billion, or about 122% growth at the midpoint, and raised its adjusted EPS outlook to $3.10–$3.40.
  • Management cited growing demand for on-site power from data centers and other commercial and industrial customers. It also described potential opportunities in utility deployments, international markets, carbon capture, combined heat and power, and 800-volt DC systems.
  • The company said its backlog was growing faster than revenue but did not provide a specific backlog figure. Management also described the business as self-funding, though free cash flow was a use of $181 million in the quarter due to capital spending and working-capital needs.
  • The hosts viewed Bloom’s growth and energy-market opportunity positively, but noted that the stock had fallen despite strong results. They also pointed to its valuation premium and the lack of a newly announced major hyperscaler deal on the call.

Takeaways

  • The results and raised guidance strengthen the operating-growth case discussed on the podcast, but the investment case also depends on Bloom converting demand into deliveries and cash flow.
  • Keep the cited risks in view: the stock’s valuation premium, quarterly delivery timing, working-capital demands, and reliance on continued customer wins.

Western Digital (WDC)

  • Western Digital reported adjusted EPS of $4.64 versus $4.10 expected and revenue of $4.38 billion versus $4.15 billion expected. Its next-quarter revenue outlook was $5.1 billion, and projected gross margin was 60%–61%.
  • The company announced a $1 billion share repurchase and a 17% dividend increase.
  • Despite the strong report and higher guidance, the stock’s initial after-hours reaction was modest. The hosts attributed that reaction to weak sentiment toward AI-related suppliers and questioned whether strong results were already reflected in the valuation.

Takeaways

  • The report showed strong demand and improving profitability, but the discussion cautioned that good results alone may not lift a stock when market sentiment is poor.
  • Consider both the raised outlook and the valuation concern raised by the hosts; they noted that the stock still carried a substantial earnings multiple after its drop.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA fell during the sell-off even as speakers described its growth and business momentum as strong. Its performance was discussed alongside broader concerns about AI infrastructure spending and the financing of customers such as neocloud providers.
  • The hosts debated whether NVIDIA might eventually help support customers’ financing, but acknowledged that such support could also be interpreted by markets as a sign of strain.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s bullish case rests on continued AI demand; the key uncertainty is whether customers can finance and earn returns on the infrastructure they are buying.
  • Do not assume that NVIDIA’s strong business momentum will insulate the stock from sector-wide financing and sentiment pressures.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD fell sharply during the session and was discussed as part of the broader sell-off in AI and semiconductor stocks.
  • The transcript did not provide company-specific earnings or a distinct investment recommendation for AMD.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offered no standalone catalyst for AMD. Its near-term prospects were framed mainly by the broader semiconductor and AI trade.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta fell after announcing plans involving non-voting shares to help finance growth. Analysts cited in the discussion questioned the spending burden, possible equity dilution, and whether incremental AI revenue would outpace infrastructure costs.
  • One host argued that AI spending also supports Meta’s core advertising business, citing improvements to ad performance and Instagram Reels. Another concern raised was that large spending commitments could weigh on margins and shareholder returns.
  • The discussion cited $825 billion in future spending commitments and described Meta as having a large, high-margin existing business that could help fund investment.

Takeaways

  • The debate is not simply whether Meta can use AI, but whether the resulting revenue and productivity gains justify the spending and possible dilution.
  • Track the relationship between AI-related revenue growth, capital spending, cash generation, and any share issuance; these were central uncertainties in the discussion.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • CoreWeave fell sharply, and its bonds and financing needs were described as a possible source of wider concern about AI infrastructure funding.
  • Speakers noted that the company may need substantial capital to expand, with financing potentially becoming more expensive if investors remain hesitant.
  • A host said NVIDIA had provided a commitment to buy back certain unused GPUs, while another guest stressed that CoreWeave’s access to future capital remained uncertain.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents CoreWeave as a higher-risk, financing-sensitive AI infrastructure investment. Monitor debt costs, access to funding, and whether customer demand translates into sustainable cash generation.
  • One guest said he was not buying neoclouds at the time, despite viewing the sector’s prospects as potentially strong.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • Nebius was discussed as a neocloud with customer demand and backlog, but its shares also fell sharply during the sector sell-off.
  • One guest said Nebius was his preferred neocloud over the long run, while also saying he was not buying at that moment because sentiment was bearish and he wanted confirmation that the business could navigate the funding environment.
  • Another host said he had been buying Nebius during the downturn, citing its backlog and financing position relative to some competitors.

Takeaways

  • The conversation contains both a long-term bullish view and an explicit near-term caution. Any investment case should account for financing needs and the possibility of further volatility.

SpaceX (Private)

  • SpaceX was described as having strong earnings but losing its post-earnings gains during the market sell-off. The hosts also noted that a large number of shares had become unlocked, potentially adding selling pressure.
  • A guest raised a specific contract risk: he said some SpaceX agreements were cancellable with 90 days’ notice. The company’s ambitious revenue projections were also questioned in the discussion.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlighted uncertainty around how to value SpaceX across its different businesses, as well as contract durability and ambitious growth projections.
  • SpaceX is private, so the transcript does not provide a public ticker or a direct public-market recommendation.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Micron was discussed as a leading memory investment. One guest favored memory stocks for the next year, citing demand visibility, the importance of memory across AI systems, and potential share repurchases.
  • The same guest noted risks including labor-union issues and competition from Chinese memory producers. Speakers also emphasized that memory can be cyclical.
  • Micron’s prior strong earnings report had not prevented its shares from falling during the broader sell-off.

Takeaways

  • The bullish thesis in the discussion is that AI demand supports memory growth, but investors should weigh that against cyclicality, competition, and company-specific execution risks.
  • The guest’s preference for memory was a sector view, not a specific price target or guaranteed outcome.

SanDisk (SNDK)

  • SanDisk was discussed as part of the memory and storage trade. A host cited rising NAND prices, including a claim of a substantial quarter-over-quarter increase, while another guest said he was less positive on NAND than on DRAM because NAND may be more commoditized.
  • The discussion also noted that SanDisk shares had fallen during the market sell-off.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents a mixed view: improving NAND prices could support results, but commoditization and future supply competition remain concerns raised by speakers.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • A guest called Broadcom his preferred semiconductor-chain investment based on the company’s stated projections, while qualifying that view on whether large customer commitments are ultimately fulfilled.
  • Speakers contrasted Broadcom’s profitability and earnings trajectory with more highly leveraged or speculative AI infrastructure suppliers. Even so, Broadcom shares fell with the broader sector.

Takeaways

  • The positive case in the discussion depends on Broadcom converting customer commitments into realized business. The guest’s endorsement was conditional, not an unconditional recommendation.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • Marvell fell sharply alongside other AI-related semiconductor and infrastructure stocks.
  • The hosts included it in the broader “AI trade” sell-off but did not offer a separate company-specific thesis or recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides little standalone investment rationale for Marvell; its discussion focused on sector-wide risk and sentiment.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Oracle was discussed as a potential opportunity after its share price declined. One host said the stock was beginning to look inexpensive but also highlighted concerns about debt and rising credit costs.
  • No specific price target or direct buy recommendation was given.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests weighing Oracle’s valuation against its financing and debt-related risks rather than treating the price decline alone as evidence of a bargain.

Lumentum (LITE) and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)

  • Both were cited as high-beta suppliers tied to AI infrastructure bottlenecks. They fell sharply during the sell-off, despite the hosts’ view that different suppliers may have different long-term prospects.
  • The discussion placed them in a more speculative group than profitable companies such as Broadcom.

Takeaways

  • These names may be more sensitive to market sentiment and funding conditions than established, profitable semiconductor businesses. The transcript did not provide company-specific price targets or recommendations.

Software and SaaS Stocks

  • The hosts described software as a relative safe haven during the sell-off, noting that some software stocks held up better than AI hardware names.
  • ServiceNow (NOW) was up on the day, while Adobe (ADBE) and Intuit (INTU) were also described as gaining. Salesforce (CRM) and Datadog (DDOG) were mentioned in the market recap.
  • Speakers suggested that software businesses with strong cash flow and lower capital-spending needs could benefit if investors favor cash-generative companies over infrastructure-heavy AI plays. They also cautioned that the sector had previously faced concerns about AI competition.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s software thesis is a relative one: cash flow and lower infrastructure spending may be attractive if investors rotate away from capital-intensive AI suppliers.
  • That view does not establish that all software companies will benefit; the transcript stressed differences in business quality and competitive position.

Other Public Stocks Mentioned

  • Tesla (TSLA) and Microsoft (MSFT) were referenced in discussions of company results and the upcoming earnings calendar, without a distinct investment recommendation.
  • Palantir (PLTR), Zeta Global (ZETA), and Datadog (DDOG) were mentioned in comparisons of earnings growth or the performance of software stocks; no specific recommendations were made.
  • Caterpillar (CAT) was among the stocks that declined, while Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) were described as holding up relatively well.
  • Apple (AAPL) was noted as turning positive during the session. Robinhood (HOOD) and Moderna (MRNA) were also mentioned as falling.
  • Comfort Systems USA (FIX) was described as a data-center HVAC supplier. Despite strong reported revenue, EPS, and backlog, its stock fell; the hosts also noted that its CFO was retiring.
  • Crown Castle (CCI) was mentioned after-hours in connection with a potential SpaceX-related cellular-network deal. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Verizon (VZ), and T-Mobile (TMUS) were referenced as companies that could face competition in satellite-to-mobile services.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) was mentioned as an example of a stock reaching a new high, not as a specific recommendation.

Takeaways

  • These stocks were mostly mentioned as examples of market rotation, sector performance, or competitive developments. The transcript did not give enough company-specific analysis to support individual investment conclusions.

OpenAI and Anthropic (Private Companies)

  • OpenAI was reported in the discussion as seeking to raise $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. Speakers also discussed the possibility of an Anthropic IPO, but did not provide a confirmed timetable or public offering details.
  • The hosts debated whether the companies’ large infrastructure commitments could be supported by future revenue and whether competition from open-source models could affect their growth.
  • Some speakers argued that powerful open-source models could threaten the economics of closed-model providers; others questioned whether open-source popularity on model platforms was a reliable measure of competition.

Takeaways

  • The investment opportunity is currently private-market exposure rather than a directly purchasable public stock. The discussion’s key risks were high spending commitments, uncertain returns, and competition from open-source models.
  • The valuation and IPO comments were discussed as reported or speculative developments, not as investment recommendations.

Cryptocurrency and Crypto-Related Exposure

  • A guest said he liked “crypto” alongside software and broader cyclical investments during the sell-off. No particular cryptocurrency or token was named.
  • Coinbase (COIN) was mentioned as an example of a company experimenting with open-source AI models, not as a crypto-stock recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers only a broad bullish sentiment toward crypto from one guest; it provides no specific asset, valuation, timeline, or trade recommendation.

AI Infrastructure, Credit Markets, and Interest Rates

  • Speakers identified the cost and availability of capital as central risks for AI infrastructure, especially for neoclouds with substantial borrowing needs. They also discussed concerns about whether spending by AI companies will generate adequate returns.
  • One guest argued that the sell-off could be a healthy correction that limits speculative overinvestment. Other speakers questioned whether lower bond yields, following a decline in equities, would actually resolve financing concerns.
  • The hosts also raised the possibility that hyperscalers or cash-rich suppliers could support financing, while noting that such support might be viewed negatively as circular financing or a sign of strain.

Takeaways

  • Assess AI investments not only by demand projections, but also by who is financing the build-out, the cost of that capital, and whether customers can earn returns on the infrastructure.
  • The speakers disagreed about whether the sell-off was a constructive reset or a warning about funding and monetization; the transcript does not establish which interpretation is correct.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!