GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES, TESLA EVENT, IREN GETS A DEAL, BITCOIN ALL TIME HIGHS | MARKET OPEN
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONTINUES, TESLA EVENT, IREN GETS A DEAL, BITCOIN ALL TIME HIGHS | MARKET OPEN
214 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a strong buy following its "massive" partnership with OpenAI, with multiple Wall Street analysts raising price targets to between $240 and $300. Consider SoFi (SOFI) as a high-conviction investment, as the potential acquisition of federal student loans could be a game-changing catalyst pushing the stock towards the $30s. PayPal (PYPL) has launched a new advertising business, creating a significant revenue stream that supports the investment thesis for the stock to potentially double. The massive guidance increase from Dell (DELL) signals booming demand for AI servers, reinforcing the bullish case for "picks and shovels" plays like DELL and Super Micro Computer (SMCI). Finally, with the US dollar weakening, investors should consider diversifying into hard assets like gold to preserve wealth.

Detailed Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • A "massive" deal was announced between AMD and OpenAI, which the host believes will lead to a re-rating of AMD's stock.
  • The deal highlights the intense and growing demand for AI Compute, a key investment theme.
  • AMD CEO Lisa Su described the deal as an "all in partnership" and the "largest deployment" they have announced.
    • The partnership will begin with AMD's next-generation MI450 chip in the second half of 2026.
  • The stock was trading up about 5% in the pre-market around $214.
  • Multiple Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on AMD following the news:
    • Morgan Stanley: to $246
    • Piper Sandler: to $240
    • Jeffries: to $300
    • Barclays: to $300
    • Bernstein (a known bear): to $200

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The partnership with OpenAI is a major validation of AMD's AI chip strategy and its ability to compete in the high-end compute market.
  • Long-Term Growth: This deal solidifies AMD's position as a critical supplier for the AI revolution, suggesting a long runway for growth as the demand for compute is expected to remain strong.
  • Analyst Confidence: The wave of price target upgrades from major firms indicates growing confidence on Wall Street that the stock has more room to run.

IREN (IREN)

  • The stock was up 9% in the pre-market on news of a new deal.
  • IREN secured a multi-year cloud services contract to deploy NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs.
  • The deal has already secured $225 million in future AI cloud revenue, expected to be operational by the end of 2025.
  • The company has grown at a "phenomenal" pace, with the stock moving from $10 in June to over $60, a gain of over 450%.
  • This news is seen as a positive catalyst for the entire sector of former crypto miners pivoting to AI data centers, lifting stocks like CleanSpark (CLSK) and BitFarms (BITF).

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: IREN is successfully executing its pivot from crypto mining to becoming a key player in the AI data center space.
  • Strong Demand: The fact that new GPUs are being contracted for even before delivery highlights the massive, unmet demand for AI compute infrastructure.
  • Industry Tailwind: The success of IREN suggests that other companies with similar infrastructure (like crypto miners) could also benefit from this powerful AI trend.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla is expected to announce something on October 7th, with speculation pointing to a new, more affordable Model Y.
  • Leaked information suggests a price of $39,990, which the host feels is not cheap enough to be considered truly "affordable." A price below $35,000 would be more impactful.
  • The stock was down in the pre-market, potentially on investor concern that the new vehicle won't be as affordable as hoped.
  • The host suggests a strategic play for Tesla would be to sell the car at a loss to drive mass adoption of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which Elon Musk has stated is the key to the company's future valuation.
  • The latest software update, FSD 14.1, has started rolling out to customers.

Takeaways

  • Cautious Sentiment: The market's reaction to the new car will heavily depend on its price. A $40,000 price tag may disappoint investors, while a price closer to $30,000 could be a major positive catalyst.
  • Focus on FSD: The long-term investment thesis for Tesla remains tied to the success of its FSD software. Any move that accelerates FSD adoption, even at the cost of vehicle margins, could be viewed positively by long-term bulls.
  • Event-Driven Volatility: Expect the stock to be volatile around the time of the announcement, as the details will determine the market's reaction.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The stock was up over 3% in the pre-market, later rallying to over 7%.
  • The primary catalyst is news that the Trump administration is considering selling parts of its $1.6 trillion federal student loan portfolio.
  • SoFi is positioned as a logical potential buyer for these loans, which could provide a massive boost to its business.
  • The host expressed confidence in CEO Anthony Noto's ability to underwrite these loans effectively.
  • The host believes the stock "deserves to be in the $30s" and that this news, combined with a potential rate-cutting cycle, is a significant tailwind.

Takeaways

  • Very Bullish Catalyst: If SoFi can acquire a portion of the government's student loan portfolio, it would be a game-changer for the company's growth trajectory.
  • Macro Tailwinds: The potential for student loan portfolio acquisition, combined with the broader trend of interest rate cuts (which encourages refinancing), creates a very positive environment for SoFi's business model.
  • Potential Re-rating: This news could be the fundamental catalyst that helps the stock break out of its recent range and head back towards the $30 level.

PayPal (PYPL)

  • The stock was up about 5% on the announcement of PayPal Ads Manager.
  • This new service allows small businesses to advertise on PayPal's platform, creating a new, high-margin revenue stream for the company.
  • This development aligns with a previously discussed thesis that advertising could become a billion-dollar business for PayPal and a key driver for the stock to potentially double.
  • The company is also aggressively buying back its own shares, which provides financial support for the stock price.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The launch of an advertising business is a significant new catalyst that could fundamentally change PayPal's growth story and profitability.
  • New Revenue Stream: This move diversifies PayPal's business beyond transactions and taps into the massive digital advertising market.
  • Financial Support: The combination of a new growth catalyst and large-scale share buybacks creates a compelling investment case.

Dell Technologies (DELL) & Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

  • Dell (DELL) stock was up 7% after dramatically increasing its long-term financial guidance.
    • Revenue growth target was nearly doubled, from 3-4% to 7-9%.
    • Diluted EPS growth target was also nearly doubled, from 8%+ to 15%+.
  • This massive guidance increase is a direct result of the surging demand for servers needed to power AI applications.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which is in the same business, was also up over 3%, as the positive news for Dell is seen as a powerful tailwind for the entire server industry.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on AI Infrastructure: The guidance from Dell is a clear signal that the AI boom is translating into massive orders for hardware and server companies.
  • "Picks and Shovels" Play: Dell and SMCI are classic "picks and shovels" investments for the AI gold rush. They provide the essential equipment needed for AI to function, making them direct beneficiaries of the trend regardless of which AI model wins.
  • Strong Sector Momentum: The positive news from Dell reinforces the bullish case for other companies involved in building out AI data centers.

Bitcoin (BTC) & BitMine (BMNR)

  • Bitcoin (BTC) was showing strength early, attempting to reclaim $125,000, but later experienced a sharp drop to below $123,000.
  • Ethereum (ETH) had broken $4,700.
  • BitMine (BMNR), a company that holds Ethereum as a treasury asset, is discussed as a leveraged way to invest in ETH.
  • BMNR traded $4 billion in volume on a recent day, showing significant trader interest.
  • The investment thesis is that BMNR can acquire ETH faster and more efficiently than a retail investor, similar to how MicroStrategy (MSTR) operates with Bitcoin.
  • The main risks for BMNR are share dilution and/or a decline in the price of Ethereum.

Takeaways

  • Leveraged Crypto Play: BMNR offers investors a way to get leveraged exposure to Ethereum in the stock market. If you are bullish on ETH, BMNR is a name to watch.
  • High Volatility: As a leveraged asset, BMNR is extremely volatile. It can have huge gains but also sharp declines, as seen when it dropped from $65 to below $60 during the show. This is not a "set it and forget it" investment.
  • Monitor Ethereum: The performance of BMNR is directly tied to the price of Ethereum. Any investment in BMNR is fundamentally a bet on the future of the Ethereum network.

AppLovin (APP)

  • The stock was recovering sharply, up over 9%, after a 20% drop the previous day.
  • The drop was caused by news of an SEC probe.
  • The host believes the probe is likely a "nothing burger" and that the sell-off was an overreaction, presenting a buying opportunity.
  • A quick valuation analysis suggests the company is cheap relative to its growth prospects, with a potential path to a $350 billion market cap from its current ~$200 billion.

Takeaways

  • "Buy the Dip" Opportunity: The discussion frames the SEC probe as a temporary headwind and a chance to buy a fast-growing, profitable company at a discount.
  • High Growth: AppLovin is noted as one of the fastest-growing companies in advertising technology with very high profit margins (85%).
  • Risk Factor: While the sentiment is bullish, the primary risk is that the SEC probe turns out to be more serious than anticipated. Investors should be aware of this risk.

Investment Theme: Gold & De-Dollarization

  • Gold's price has surged above $4,000, a record high.
  • Prominent investor Ken Griffin is quoted as saying that the US dollar is weakening, and investors and central banks are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset.
  • This is part of a broader theme of "de-dollarization," where investors are looking for alternatives to the US dollar due to concerns about inflation and US sovereign risk.
  • The phrase "cash is trash" is used to suggest that in the current environment, hard assets like gold, Bitcoin, and real estate are likely to perform well.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Hard Assets: In an environment of a weakening dollar and persistent inflation, holding hard assets like gold can be a way to preserve wealth.
  • Portfolio Diversification: Gold can serve as a diversifier in a portfolio, offering protection against currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Monitor the Dollar: The strength or weakness of the US dollar is a key driver for the price of gold. Continued dollar weakness would likely be a tailwind for gold.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!