Consider the copper miners ETF, COPX, as a primary investment due to a long-term supply deficit and surging demand from AI and the energy transition. With a potential price target of $120-$130 next year, copper is seen as the next commodity poised for a significant run. For a speculative play, the CEO of GameStop (GME) just bought one million shares, a strong bullish signal of insider confidence. For a contrarian opportunity, watch Intel (INTC) as it approaches the $35 level, which could represent an attractive entry point despite recent weakness. Finally, pay close attention to Meta (META) earnings this week, as significant institutional buying signals confidence ahead of the report.

Commodities (Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum)

• The speaker highlights a strong rally in commodities, referring to it as a potential "commodity super cycle".
• The primary catalyst mentioned for the recent surge in gold and silver is the rising probability of a U.S. government shutdown, which has increased from sub-15% to nearly 80%. This uncertainty is driving investors towards assets seen as a hedge.
• The weakening U.S. Dollar (Dixie) is also cited as a tailwind for commodities.
• The speaker notes that institutional money and central banks appear to be rotating out of crypto and into commodities like copper, gold, and silver.

Takeaways

• The current market environment, characterized by government shutdown fears and a weakening dollar, is creating a strong bullish case for commodities.
• Investors are treating these assets as a "debasement trade" or a hedge against uncertainty.
• The speaker questions if commodities are in a bubble but notes that the demand seems to be driven by more than just retail, with significant institutional and central bank buying.

Copper (COPX)

• The speaker is very bullish on copper, stating "I think copper is next" and believes it has not had the same massive run as gold and silver yet.
• He bought the copper miners ETF, COPX, on Friday and notes it was up significantly in overnight trading, at one point surging 9%.
• The investment thesis is based on a fundamental supply and demand imbalance:
  • Demand Surge: Global demand is projected to surge, driven by EV adoption, grid upgrades, and AI data centers. The world economy is projected to face a copper deficit of 10 million tons by 2040.
  • Supply Constraints: Supply is expected to peak in 2030 and then decline. The world's largest producer, Chile, is seeing declining production due to aging mines and other issues.
• The speaker cites famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller and BHP's CEO as being bullish on copper for similar reasons.
• A potential price target is mentioned: "if it even has half the run that silver has had, COPX should be close to $120, $130 next year."
• Risk Factor: The main risk mentioned is a "rug pull" scenario where the CME or another entity could "pull the plug," causing a top in the market, though the speaker seems to believe the industrial demand provides a strong fundamental floor.

Takeaways

• Copper presents a compelling investment case based on a long-term structural supply deficit and surging demand from the energy transition and AI.
• Unlike gold and silver, which have already seen massive runs, copper may still have significant upside potential.
• Investors looking for exposure could consider copper mining ETFs like COPX. The speaker personally initiated a position.

Gold (GLD) & Silver (SLV)

• The speaker notes "historic" jumps in gold and silver prices, with gold crossing $5,000 and silver hitting $107 an ounce during the podcast.
• The primary driver is the increased odds of a government shutdown, which creates uncertainty and pushes investors into safe-haven assets.
• The speaker notes that silver has had a massive move, essentially doubling from $50 to $100 over the past year.
• ETFs mentioned:
  • SLV (iShares Silver Trust) was up 3.65% in overnight trading.
  • SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF) was up 2.84%.
  • GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) was mentioned as a way to get exposure.

Takeaways

• Gold and silver are acting as primary beneficiaries of geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty.
• While the run has been significant, especially in silver, the trend appears strong as long as uncertainty persists.
• The speaker expresses some caution about buying at these high levels, stating, "I don't know if I would buy silver and gold... at these levels," due to the risk of a "rug pull."

Rare Earth Metals (USAR, MP, REMX)

• A major catalyst for the sector is a Financial Times report that the U.S. government is taking a $1.6 billion stake in the rare earth company USAR.
• USAR stock was up 46% in the past five days and jumped another 19% in overnight trading on the news.
• The speaker notes this is part of a broader theme of the U.S. onshoring critical mineral supply chains and reducing dependence on China.
• Other rare earth stocks also rallied on the news, with MP up 2.41% and the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) up 11.69%.

Takeaways

• Government investment is a powerful catalyst for the rare earth sector. The move into USAR signals strong federal support for domestic production.
• This is a strategic, long-term theme as the U.S. aims to secure its supply of critical minerals.
• The speaker advises caution on chasing the immediate pump in USAR, stating, "I wouldn't buy into the pump yet," suggesting it might be better to wait for a better entry point after the initial excitement fades.

Big Tech Stocks

• The upcoming week is critical, with earnings from Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
• These earnings will provide insight into the health of the broader economy.
• Risk Factor: The potential government shutdown could negatively impact even strong earnings reports, as the market may price in a slowdown in advertising demand and consumer spending.

Meta (META)

• The speaker is particularly interested in Meta's earnings call, suggesting it's more important to listen to than Tesla's this quarter.
• There's a debate on whether the stock can continue its run towards $800.
• Two "super investors" were noted to have added 35-40% to their Meta positions, signaling institutional confidence.
• Risk Factor: A "dark horse" risk is if Meta announces massive CapEx for its "Meta Compute" business, which could hurt free cash flow guidance and spook investors, even if it's for long-term growth.

Apple (AAPL)

• Retail investors are reportedly dumping Apple. The stock saw negative $4 billion in retail outflows over the past seven months, the only one of the "Mag 7" with net selling.

Tesla (TSLA)

• The speaker believes the earnings call will be "boring" and focused on long-term visions rather than immediate results.

Microsoft (MSFT)

• The stock went green in overnight trading. The speaker notes that Microsoft's earnings calls are "always kind of boring."

Takeaways

• This is a make-or-break week for big tech. Pay close attention to earnings and, more importantly, forward guidance.
• Meta is the stock to watch this week. Strong results could propel it higher, but be wary of any announcements of significantly increased spending that could negatively impact short-term sentiment.

Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH)

• Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) were down 4% and 3% respectively over the weekend.
• The speaker attributes the drop to the same uncertainty (government shutdown odds) that is boosting commodities.
• A key observation is that institutional money seems to be choosing commodities over crypto as a hedge in the current environment. The speaker notes, "they're ditching crypto for it, which is sad."
• Crypto-related stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) are struggling to gain momentum, which the speaker believes is because the market views them as a crypto play.

Takeaways

• Crypto is currently not acting as the safe-haven or inflation-hedge asset that many proponents claim it to be.
• In the current macro environment, traditional commodities are outperforming crypto as the preferred hedge against uncertainty.
• Until the narrative shifts back towards crypto, crypto-exposed stocks may continue to underperform.

GameStop (GME)

• The stock was up 2% in overnight trading.
• The catalyst is that CEO Ryan Cohen bought a million shares, an investment of about $23 million.
• The speaker notes that "usually insiders buy for a reason and they think the stock's going up," suggesting this is a bullish signal.

Takeaways

• The significant insider buy from the CEO is a strong vote of confidence.
• This could be a speculative play based on the idea that Cohen may be planning a special announcement or strategic move for the company.

Shopify (SHOP)

• The speaker is watching Shopify, noting he has never bought it but is now interested.
• The stock is "trading at the cheapest level since August," which could present a buying opportunity.
• He mentions it's a name that "deserves a deep dive."

Takeaways

• Shopify has been beaten down with other software/growth stocks and may be reaching an attractive valuation.
• Investors looking for growth names that have pulled back could consider doing their own research on SHOP.

Intel (INTC)

• The stock fell 17% on a previous day and was down another 3% in overnight trading after poor earnings.
• The issue was not demand, but poor "supply side execution."
• The speaker notes that despite the miss, most analysts upgraded their price targets to around $65.
• He mentions he bought it as a "pure gamble" and that $35 is a price where the stock "gets at least a bit more attractive."

Takeaways

• Intel's problems are related to its own execution, not a lack of demand.
• If the stock continues to fall towards the $35 level, it could represent an attractive entry point for a contrarian bet, given the strong underlying demand and government support for the semiconductor industry.