FIRST JOBS REPORT IN MONTH | MARKET OPEN
FIRST JOBS REPORT IN MONTH | MARKET OPEN
144 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 55 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Jeffries initiated bullish coverage on quantum computing stocks, setting a $100 price target for IONQ and a $45 price target for D-Wave. The Solana (SOL) blockchain received a major vote of confidence as Visa will now use it for USDC stablecoin settlements, signaling strong real-world adoption. Recent weakness in SoFi (SOFI) due to competitive fears may present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in the company's long-term strategy. Bank of America reiterated its bullish stance on Palantir (PLTR) with a $255 price target, adding to the stock's positive momentum. Investors should be cautious with upcoming mega-IPOs like Databricks and SpaceX, as it is often prudent to wait several months post-launch for the initial hype to subside.

Detailed Analysis

AI & Data Center Stocks (NVDA, CRW, IREN, AVGO, ORCL, AMD)

  • The main theme of the discussion was the AI and data center build-out. The US government is advancing a bill to shorten permit timelines for data centers, which is seen as a major tailwind for the sector.
  • A market rotation was identified as a key short-term trend. Money has been moving out of high-growth AI stocks and into other sectors like healthcare (Eli Lilly) and financials (JPMorgan). This explains why the S&P 500 is near all-time highs while many popular tech stocks are down.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA):
    • The stock was noted as holding up better than some peers.
    • A Goldman Sachs report was cited, projecting that NVIDIA will maintain 80% of the chip market by late 2027, even as competitors like AMD and Broadcom grow their share.
  • CoreWeave (CRW), IREN, Nebius:
    • These data center stocks are seen as trading together "in the same bucket."
    • They have experienced a significant cool-down after a very hot run-up. IREN was described as having been "absolutely decimated" from its recent highs.
    • The host noted that Cathie Wood was a recent buyer of CoreWeave.
  • Broadcom (AVGO) & Oracle (ORCL):
    • Both stocks saw several days of selling pressure but showed signs of buyers stepping in during the trading session, with their price action flipping from red to green. This was seen as a potential leading indicator for a tech rebound.

Takeaways

  • The long-term investment case for the AI data center build-out remains strong, supported by massive spending and government incentives.
  • In the short term, investors should be aware of the market rotation causing weakness in these stocks, even when the broader market is strong. This can be frustrating but may not invalidate the long-term thesis.
  • For long-term investors, the host suggests that selling a company with strong fundamentals like NVIDIA to chase a "rotation trade" into a stock like Goldman Sachs at its all-time high can be a difficult strategy to time correctly.

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

  • The host discussed the news of several major private companies preparing to go public, including Databricks (at a $134 billion valuation) and SpaceX.
  • The sentiment was cautious. The host believes these companies are timing their IPOs to take advantage of a "hot" market with "excess liquidity."
  • He views these events primarily as opportunities for early investors and insiders to achieve "exit liquidity." It was mentioned that Peter Thiel is expected to personally make $42 billion from the SpaceX IPO.
  • The host stated he will not be buying the Databricks or SpaceX IPOs on day one, referencing the historical tendency for such hyped IPOs to "pump and then... dump."
  • Canva was mentioned as the one upcoming IPO the host is interested in, citing its "reasonable valuation."

Takeaways

  • The wave of large IPOs is a signal that investor appetite for risk is high.
  • A prudent strategy for retail investors may be to wait several months after an IPO before considering an investment. This allows the initial hype and volatility to subside and provides a clearer picture of the company's performance as a public entity.
  • Buying into the initial frenzy can be risky, as you are often buying from early investors who are selling for a large profit.

Fintech Stocks

  • PayPal (PYPL):
    • The news that PayPal is starting a bank was viewed as bullish.
    • This move could allow the company to meaningfully monetize loans and create a new revenue stream. The stock was up over 1.4% on the news.
  • SoFi (SOFI):
    • The market is interpreting PayPal's move as a new competitive threat to SoFi, which contributed to its stock getting hit.
    • Despite the pressure, the host believes the stock is a "buy" at its current levels and should not be trading in the low $20s.
  • Robinhood (HOOD):
    • The stock was showing strength ahead of a major company event scheduled for the evening.
    • There is anticipation that the event could include announcements related to AI and prediction markets, which could act as a positive catalyst for the stock.

Takeaways

  • PayPal's venture into banking could be a significant long-term positive for the stock.
  • The negative reaction in SoFi's stock due to competitive fears could present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in the company's long-term strategy.
  • Robinhood's stock price could see volatility around its event. Investors should watch for new product announcements that could drive future growth.

Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, SOL)

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) showed initial strength after the jobs report but then experienced a "sell the news" pullback. BTC was noted as hitting $87,600 before retreating.
  • A major positive development was the announcement that Visa is partnering with Circle to use the USDC stablecoin for settlement on the Solana (SOL) blockchain.
  • This collaboration is seen as significant evidence of crypto's real-world adoption and the "upgrading to a new internet financial system."

Takeaways

  • The Visa/Circle/Solana partnership is a strong bullish signal for the crypto ecosystem, demonstrating that major traditional finance companies are building on public blockchains.
  • This move validates Solana's use case for fast and cheap transactions, potentially driving more development and usage on its network.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla's stock was a key focus, showing extreme volatility throughout the session, flipping between green and red multiple times.
  • The host noted that December 17th of the previous year was when TSLA hit its all-time high of $488. He speculated on whether the stock could repeat this performance.
  • During the session, the stock hit a high of $481.95, surpassing the previous day's peak, before being rejected and pulling back.

Takeaways

  • TSLA is trading at a technically important level, testing major resistance near its prior all-time highs.
  • The stock's performance is seen as a potential bellwether for high-growth tech. Last year, its peak preceded a broader market downturn. Investors are watching to see if history repeats or if it can break out and lead a rally.

Quantum Computing Stocks (D-Wave, IONQ)

  • The quantum computing sector received a significant vote of confidence from Wall Street.
  • Jeffries initiated coverage on the sector with bullish ratings.
    • D-Wave was given a $45 price target.
    • IONQ was given a $100 price target.
  • This news caused a rally in the quantum stocks, with IONQ up 7%.

Takeaways

  • Initiation of coverage by a major firm like Jeffries brings legitimacy and institutional attention to the speculative quantum computing space.
  • These bullish price targets could attract more investment into stocks like D-Wave and IONQ, providing a strong tailwind for their stock prices.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Ford (F): The stock rallied after the company announced it was taking a $20 billion charge-off and scaling back its EV ambitions. The market rewarded the decision to cut losses in an unprofitable division.
  • Palantir (PLTR): The stock saw positive catalysts. Bank of America reiterated a $255 price target, and a U.S. Representative on the House Armed Service Committee disclosed a $30,000 purchase of the stock.
  • GameStop (GME): Mentioned in the context of investor Michael Burry, who is reportedly very bullish on GME and its CEO Ryan Cohen, whom he believes has the "temperament to be the next Buffett." This is contrasted with Burry's bearish stance on the AI theme.
  • Grab (GRAB): The stock has been underperforming significantly. The host speculates that the market may be waiting for more clarity from the upcoming meeting of its competitor, GoTo, before the stock can move. He believes the stock is "severely undervalued" compared to its earnings.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ nyc feb meetup: https://shorturl.at/wk0pN 00:00 - Jobs Data 20:00 - Macro 52:00 - Hasset 1:30:00 - Market Open 1:38:11 - Job Numbers 1:50:15 - Ed Yardeni 2:47:25 - Goldman Sachs
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!