ETHEREUM TRYING FOR ALL TIME HIGHS, COREWEAVE TANKS, BESSENT CALLS FOR 50BPS OF CUTS | MARKET OPEN
ETHEREUM TRYING FOR ALL TIME HIGHS, COREWEAVE TANKS, BESSENT CALLS FOR 50BPS OF CUTS | MARKET OPEN
269 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Analysts view Ethereum (ETH) as a top long-term investment, with institutional adoption driving price targets towards $7,500 to $15,000 once it breaks its previous all-time high near $4,800. Despite its large market cap, NVIDIA (NVDA) is considered a core holding and arguably the "most important company in the world," still seen as reasonably priced. AMD (AMD) is showing strong momentum after reports of a competitive win against NVIDIA, making it a compelling trade within the AI theme. Robinhood (HOOD) offers a direct play on the trading boom, with a recent dip viewed as a buying opportunity ahead of potentially strong July operating metrics. For higher-risk exposure to Ethereum, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) is a leveraged option, but investors must be aware of potential price drops from share dilution.

Detailed Analysis

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Bullish sentiment is extremely high for Ethereum, with the podcast host and guests calling it potentially the "biggest macro trade over the next 10 to 15 years."
  • The price was trading around $4,700, very close to its prior all-time high of approximately $4,800. Breaking this level is seen as a major catalyst.
  • Institutional Adoption: The current rally is described as feeling more "real" and "institutionalized" compared to the 2021 hype. This is supported by massive inflows into the new Ethereum ETFs, with one day seeing over $1 billion in new investment.
  • Fundamental Drivers: The bull case is not based on hype, but on:
    • Stablecoins: Described as the "chat GPT moment for crypto," changing the financial system.
    • Tokenization: The process of putting real-world assets (like stocks, bonds, and real estate) on the blockchain. Major financial players like JPMorgan, BlackRock, Coinbase, and Robinhood are building these systems on Ethereum.
  • Price Targets:
    • Standard Charter raised its year-end price target for ETH to $7,500.
    • Guest Tom Lee suggested $7,500 might be on the "low end," with other targets he's seen ranging from $10,000 to $15,000. He also mentioned a long-term possibility of $60,000.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment around Ethereum is overwhelmingly bullish, driven by strong institutional inflows and a fundamental thesis around stablecoins and asset tokenization.
  • Investors have several ways to gain exposure:
    • Directly buying ETH.
    • Through regulated ETFs, such as the ones from BlackRock (IBIT) or Fidelity.
    • Through "Ethereum treasury" companies like Bitmine Immersion (BMNR), which are considered leveraged, higher-risk plays.
  • Breaking the previous all-time high of $4,800 is a key technical level to watch. A sustained move above this could lead to significant further upside.

Bitmine Immersion (BMNR)

  • This company is described as an "Ethereum treasury," meaning its primary strategy is to hold large amounts of Ethereum on its balance sheet. It is chaired by prominent analyst Tom Lee.
  • It is considered a leveraged play on Ethereum. When Ethereum's price rises, BMNR is expected to rise even more. The stock was up over 10% during the podcast, breaking the $70 level.
  • "Smart money" is seen as getting involved, with Peter Thiel also taking a stake in BMNR.
  • Risk Factor: The primary risk mentioned is shareholder dilution. The company has filed to raise $20 billion by selling new shares to buy more Ethereum. This will increase the number of shares outstanding and can cause the stock price to drop. The speaker noted a drop from $65 to $45 would be possible during a dilution event.

Takeaways

  • BMNR offers a high-risk, high-reward way to invest in the Ethereum theme. Its performance is directly tied to and amplified by the price of ETH.
  • Investors must be comfortable with the business model, which involves periodic and significant share dilution. These dilution events, while potentially causing sharp price drops, are part of the strategy to acquire more ETH and could be viewed as buying opportunities by long-term bulls.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Analyst Tom Lee referred to NVIDIA as one of his top long-term picks (a "granny shot") and arguably the "most important company in the world."
  • Despite its massive $4.4 trillion market cap, he argued it is still "reasonably priced" with a forward P/E multiple of 30, which is lower than 37 other stocks in the S&P 500.
  • A report from a Taiwanese bank suggested NVIDIA may be delaying its next-generation "Rubin" chip to better compete with AMD's upcoming product. This was seen as a potential sign of increasing competition.

Takeaways

  • The long-term bullish case for NVIDIA remains strong, with prominent analysts still seeing value even at its current size.
  • The competitive landscape with AMD is a key dynamic to monitor. Any perceived strengthening of AMD's position could create short-term headwinds for NVIDIA's stock.

AMD (AMD)

  • The stock saw a significant rally, climbing over 5% to hit a new 52-week high around $186.
  • The primary catalyst was a report that its main competitor, NVIDIA, was delaying its next chip to better match AMD's upcoming MI450 chip. This was interpreted as a major competitive win for AMD.
  • This positive news allowed the stock to completely recover from its post-earnings dip and surpass its previous highs, suggesting the market is more focused on the long-term AI narrative than the specifics of the last quarter.

Takeaways

  • AMD is showing strong momentum, driven by positive news about its competitive standing against NVIDIA.
  • The market is willing to look past mixed short-term results in favor of the larger AI growth story. The dynamic between AMD and NVIDIA is a powerful driver for both stocks.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The speaker mentioned Robinhood as one of their preferred ways to get exposure to the crypto boom, alongside holding the assets directly.
  • July operating metrics, which were scheduled to be released after the market close, are expected to be exceptionally strong ("gonna crush it") due to all-time high trading volumes in crypto and equities.
  • The stock experienced a sharp, counterintuitive sell-off during the session, dropping over 5% while crypto prices were high. The speaker speculated this was due to a large institutional seller, insider profit-taking, or algorithmic trading, but not due to weak fundamentals.
  • The speaker viewed the dip as a buying opportunity, purchasing shares at $107.50.

Takeaways

  • Robinhood's business is a direct beneficiary of increased trading activity and excitement in both stocks and crypto.
  • Upcoming metric releases could serve as a positive catalyst.
  • The stock is prone to high volatility. Sharp dips that are disconnected from underlying market trends may present buying opportunities for investors with a bullish long-term view.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock was showing strong momentum, hitting a new all-time high of $189.05 in the pre-market.
  • A key bullish indicator mentioned was that institutional ownership has grown to 60% of all shares, and short interest is decreasing. This suggests that large, professional investors are buying in and bearish bets are declining.

Takeaways

  • Palantir is in a strong uptrend, backed by increasing institutional conviction.
  • The combination of a rising stock price, growing institutional ownership, and falling short interest is a powerful bullish signal.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • The stock sold off sharply, down as much as 19%, following its earnings report.
  • While the company beat revenue expectations, it missed on earnings per share (EPS) and is spending very heavily on capital expenditures (CapEx) to grow.
  • The sell-off was attributed to two main factors:
    1. The stock had an enormous run-up (+120%) leading into the report, setting a very high bar for performance.
    2. An upcoming share lockup expiration on Friday means a large number of previously restricted shares could be sold on the market, creating selling pressure.

Takeaways

  • This was a case of "sell the news." The earnings were good, but not good enough to justify the massive price increase leading up to the report.
  • Investors should be aware of the potential for further selling pressure from the lockup expiration. For long-term believers in the AI infrastructure space, this volatility could present a more attractive entry point.

Bullish (BLSH) IPO

  • Bullish is an institutional-focused cryptocurrency exchange that went public via IPO.
  • There was extremely high demand for the shares, with the IPO being 20x oversubscribed and the price being raised multiple times, from an initial range near $20 to a final price of $37. Pre-open projections suggested it could open as high as $60.
  • The company is backed by prominent investor Peter Thiel.
  • The podcast host expressed significant skepticism, viewing the IPO as "exit liquidity" for early investors and driven more by market hype than strong company fundamentals. He was unimpressed with the CEO's pitch, which he felt focused on the general crypto bull case rather than Bullish's specific advantages.

Takeaways

  • This IPO is a high-hype, high-risk event. The involvement of Peter Thiel and the frothy crypto market are driving massive demand.
  • Investors who received an allocation at the $37 IPO price could see a significant "pop" at the open. A potential strategy is to sell into this initial strength to lock in profits, as the long-term viability of the company was questioned by the host.

Other Investment Mentions

  • SoFi (SOFI): Showing strong momentum, breaking out to its highest levels since 2021 (above $24). The speaker believes $25 is a near-term possibility, with the stock performing well even after a recent share dilution.
  • Cava (CAVA): Stock was down over 20% after reporting weak same-store sales growth (+2.1%). This was seen as part of a broader negative trend for fast-casual dining chains.
  • UnitedHealth Group (UNH): Noted as the #1 stock being bought by "super investors" in the most recent quarter. It's viewed as a potential defensive/value stock to own if high-growth tech stocks experience a correction.
  • Oklo (OKLO): A speculative nuclear energy company. The stock is trading at all-time highs not on financial results (it has no revenue), but on news that it was selected for projects by the U.S. Department of Energy, positioning it as a key government partner.
  • Grab (GRAB): The stock was attempting to break and hold the key psychological level of $5.00. The speaker has high conviction in the company's valuation and is accumulating shares.
  • Macro Environment (S&P 500): The overall market outlook is very bullish. The S&P 500 is at all-time highs, supported by strong earnings and a 99% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. The consensus view from analysts on the show is that any market dip is a buying opportunity.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - ETH 12:39 - BLSH IPO 19:15 - Macro 37:45 - Bessent 44:00 - Market Open
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!