ELON AND JENSEN RESPOND, OIL AND YIELDS HIGHER, FOMC TOMORROW | MARKET OPEN
ELON AND JENSEN RESPOND, OIL AND YIELDS HIGHER, FOMC TOMORROW | MARKET OPEN
19 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 53 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB) offers a compelling value opportunity around $3.06, where accelerated 30% revenue growth and strong financial inflection support an upside price target of $7.00 to $7.50 per share.
  • Meta Platforms (META) is an attractive large-cap buy near $667 to $670, with proprietary AI silicon deployment and consumer monetization serving as catalysts toward a $750 to $800 price target.
  • Long-term investors should accumulate Uber Technologies (UBER) at roughly 12x free cash flow to capitalize on strong insider buying, massive share repurchases, and its leading marketplace positioning in autonomous vehicles.
  • Use market pullbacks to buy Broadcom (AVGO) near the $340 level, securing exposure to a dominant player in custom AI silicon and enterprise networking infrastructure.
  • Exercise near-term caution and maintain higher cash reserves across digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as policy gridlock surrounding the Clarity Act and 10-year Treasury yields above 5.00% will keep downward pressure on speculative assets.
Detailed Analysis

Grab Holdings (GRAB)

  • Grab announced the acquisition of a 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.49 billion in cash, with a pathway to 100% ownership over the next two years capped at $4.5 billion.
    • Atome Financial generated $800 million in revenue in the first half of the year (growing at 50%) and brings 30,000 brand customers and 25 million cumulative monthly transacting users to Grab.
    • Grab upgraded its 3-year revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) guidance from 20% to 30% (with internal expectations potentially hitting 35% to 40%).
    • Upgraded adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.7 billion by 2028 (up from $1.2B–$1.5B) with an 80% free cash flow conversion rate.
    • Guided a 3x increase in its loan portfolio from $2 billion to $6 billion by 2028.
    • The company maintains a $900 million to $1 billion share buyback program over the next 12 months and holds $3 billion in cash post-acquisition.
  • The stock has been heavily pressured by high oil prices impacting ride-hailing sentiment, but fundamentals and margins (Mobility at 8.6%, Deliveries at 2.3%, and Financial Services turning break-even) continue to improve.

Takeaways

  • Grab is viewed as an undervalued growth opportunity trading at roughly 15x forward earnings with strong bottom-line inflection and 30% top-line growth.
  • The analyst estimates a fair intrinsic value of $7.00 to $7.50 per share (with a minimum baseline above $5.00), representing significant upside from current depressed prices near $3.06.

Uber Technologies (UBER)

  • Management (CEO buying $10 million in stock, COO buying $5 million) reaffirmed strong confidence in their unit economics and long-term positioning for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs).
  • Uber is positioned as the primary global marketplace for autonomous fleets via partnerships with NVIDIA and 30–50 AV original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), rather than relying on a single closed network.
  • The company maintains an aggressive $6 billion quarterly share buyback program and generates strong high-margin revenue from advertising (growing 50% year-over-year at roughly $2.5 billion with 90% gross margins).

Takeaways

  • Trading at approximately 12x free cash flow, Uber is considered fundamentally mispriced due to market fears of Tesla monopolizing autonomous driving.
  • Investors with a 5- to 10-year horizon should view Uber as a premier AV marketplace aggregator with expanding margins.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta announced plans to deploy next-generation in-house custom silicon (Astrid chips) in late 2027 to lower compute expenses and reduce dependence on third-party hardware.
  • The newly launched consumer AI application Muse reached the #2 position in the App Store behind ChatGPT, serving as a catalyst for potential earnings diversification away from pure digital advertising.
  • Meta is trading at roughly 21x forward earnings around $667–$670, rebounding from recent lows of $550.

Takeaways

  • Meta remains fundamentally discounted relative to its Big Tech peers; analyst sees fair value between $750 and $800 (with long-term price potential reaching $1,000).
  • Custom chip deployment and new consumer AI monetization serve as catalysts for margin expansion and multiple re-rating.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • CEO Jensen Huang publicly pushed back on AI doomerism and regulatory slowdowns, referring to claims of catastrophic risks as "made up" and emphasizing that previous panic around AI eliminating jobs proved inaccurate.
  • Potential risks from major hyperscalers (Meta, Google, OpenAI) developing in-house application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) to avoid the "NVIDIA tax" are seen as margin-trimming rather than demand-destroying.
  • The stock traded between $210 and $214, navigating market volatility stemming from AI regulatory debates and macroeconomic headwinds.

Takeaways

  • Structural demand for AI compute capacity remains high despite political debates regarding model safety.
  • While customers developing in-house chips create headline risk, NVIDIA’s Cosmos software platform and CUDA ecosystem maintain strong pricing power in the near term.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla and SpaceX are collaborating on an advanced R&D semiconductor fabrication plant (TerraFab) in Austin, Texas, aiming to vertically integrate packaging and chip logic to mitigate Taiwan supply chain risks by late 2027.
  • An upcoming Roadster demo (targeting production/sales around 2027) is expected to showcase short-duration hovering/thruster capabilities.
  • The stock hovered around $360–$361, trading on future growth narratives rather than immediate earnings acceleration.

Takeaways

  • While hardware and robotic demos offer short-term technical catalysts, long-term investors should watch for actual margin and delivery execution.
  • Speculation regarding eventual corporate consolidation between Tesla and SpaceX could act as a long-term enterprise valuation driver.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • Bitcoin fell from $79,500 to $75,600 and Ethereum dropped from $2,600 to $2,400 over a 24-hour period.
  • Downside volatility is primarily driven by gridlock in the U.S. Senate over the Clarity Act, as Republicans rejected the Democrats' latest counteroffer ahead of the floor vote.
  • Crypto-adjacent equities (Coinbase [COIN] down 7%, Robinhood [HOOD] down 3-4%, and MicroStrategy [MSTR] down 3%) are experiencing direct collateral weakness.

Takeaways

  • The digital asset ecosystem faces near-term regulatory headwinds if the Clarity Act fails to reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.
  • Expect continued price volatility for crypto tokens and related platforms (COIN, HOOD) until clear legislative frameworks pass.

Forgent Power Solutions (FPS)

  • Forgent reported explosive earnings driven by data center energy infrastructure demand, posting revenue of $462 million (up 94% year-over-year) and adjusted EBITDA of $113 million (up 163% year-over-year).
  • Total backlog surged 256% year-over-year to $3 billion.
  • Management raised forward full-year guidance substantially to $2.6 billion (compared to street consensus of $2.0 billion), sending the stock up 14–15%.

Takeaways

  • Energy and electrical infrastructure providers remain direct beneficiaries of the ongoing AI data center buildout.
  • High valuation multiples are actively compressing due to rapid triple-digit operational growth.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Broadcom continues to see heavy custom silicon ASIC engagements with Tier-1 hyperscalers (including Meta and OpenAI).
  • Despite strong fundamentals and long-term networking trends, the stock faced broader market pressure around the $340 level due to macroeconomic yield headwinds and sector-rotation selling.

Takeaways

  • Broadcom remains a core compounder for custom AI silicon and enterprise networking.
  • Current price pullbacks driven by broad market liquidity represent favorable accumulation levels for long-term growth investors.

Macroeconomic Environment & Interest Rates

  • FOMC & Yields: Markets are pricing in a 92.5% to 93.5% probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve interest rate hike tomorrow. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked above 5.00% (reaching 5.04%), with the 30-year yield at 5.37%–5.40%.
  • Inflation & Commodities: Crude Oil trades at $102–$104/barrel (Brent at $108), with U.S. diesel futures near $5.23/gallon, exacerbated by the shutdown of the Saudi Arabian East-West pipeline and continued Middle East geopolitical tensions.
  • Credit & Equities: A Bank of America fund manager survey suggests yields between 5.0% and 6.0% risk triggering a 10% correction in the S&P 500. However, strong enterprise earnings growth (26.7%) has kept broad index levels resilient.

Takeaways

  • High interest rates and energy prices continue to disproportionately hurt rate-sensitive and capital-intensive equities (SoFi, Zillow, Opendoor, and small-cap stocks).
  • Until geopolitical tensions de-escalate and energy prices subside, investors should maintain higher cash reserves, manage options risk, and prioritize profitable, secularly growing businesses.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ 00:00 - Intro 10:18 - Elon and Jensen 22:00 - Macro 44:00 - Market Open 1:12:45 - Yields 1:29:00 - Bessent 2:12:50 - Grab new acquisition 2:33:00 - Elon 2:41:00 - Bessent again
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!