CRYPTO TAKES A HIT, BOND YIELDS HIT A NEW 52-WEEK HIGH, MICRON & MEMORY GOES DOWN | MARKET OPEN
CRYPTO TAKES A HIT, BOND YIELDS HIT A NEW 52-WEEK HIGH, MICRON & MEMORY GOES DOWN | MARKET OPEN
22 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 51 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat the BTC drop from roughly $87,000 to $83,000 as a leverage-risk warning; the discussion offered no confirmed catalyst or buy/sell signal, so avoid overleveraging.
  • Consider MU for AI-driven memory demand, but watch supply growth, pricing, and company guidance; the cited $3,000 price target is an analyst estimate, not a guarantee.
  • Track NVDA and MRVL as AI-infrastructure plays, while requiring revenue growth to support their valuations; Marvell’s forecast of roughly 60% annual growth through 2031 remains an execution-dependent outlook.
  • For UBER, monitor whether the $2.3 billion Easy Cater acquisition expands corporate catering and improves margins and cash flow.
  • Be cautious with IREN and other neocloud stocks amid debt, dilution, and execution concerns, and monitor VST for new hyperscaler power deals before relying on the discussed $185 valuation estimate.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin fell from roughly $87,000 to $83,000, triggering nearly $400 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions.
  • The speaker suspected rising Treasury yields and broader market unease contributed to the drop, but said the precise cause was unclear.
  • The transcript also noted concern about a large crypto liquidation event around the same time the previous year.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights how leverage can magnify losses: even a modest price drop can wipe out highly leveraged positions.
  • Treat the move as a reminder that crypto can be volatile and is sensitive to both market sentiment and financing conditions; the transcript did not establish a confirmed catalyst or a specific buy/sell recommendation.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Fund manager Tom Lee said his firm was targeting a holding of 5% of all ETH and had accumulated about 6 million ETH in a little over a year.
  • He described the purchases as having occurred during a bear market and said the firm expected a much longer accumulation period.
  • The speaker noted that crypto-treasury strategies depend on the underlying tokens rising in value.

Takeaways

  • A large treasury position is not, by itself, evidence that ETH will appreciate. The strategy remains exposed to crypto price declines and the risks of concentrating a company’s assets in a volatile token.

Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC), Seagate (STX) and Sandisk (SNDK)

  • Memory stocks weakened amid concerns that Toshiba plans to expand hard-drive manufacturing capacity by 2030. The speaker said the news weighed particularly on Western Digital and Seagate, which have greater exposure to hard drives.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald argued the added capacity may not materially change supply because AI and data-center demand could continue to outpace it. The firm also questioned Toshiba’s ability to execute, citing an earlier expansion plan that did not materialize.
  • The speaker was cautious about relying on sell-side forecasts, and said the key uncertainty is whether future supply will outpace demand and weaken pricing.
  • For Micron, DA Davidson raised its price target to $3,000 from $2,100. That is an analyst target, not a recommendation made by the host. The speaker also cited a $700 million Micron settlement with Netlist and questioned why the market had reacted negatively to it.
  • Micron recovered from near $1,000 during the trading session discussed. Sandisk also turned positive, while SK Hynix remained under pressure.
  • The speaker viewed memory as a cyclical business: strong AI demand may support growth, but demand and pricing could eventually slow.

Takeaways

  • The investment case depends on AI and data-center demand continuing to absorb new memory and storage capacity. Watch supply additions, pricing, and company guidance rather than relying on a single analyst target.
  • The transcript presents a bullish long-term demand argument alongside a clear risk: memory stocks may be vulnerable if supply catches up with demand or the cycle turns.

NVIDIA (NVDA), Marvell (MRVL) and AI semiconductors

  • NVIDIA was near $236–$237 during the session and had recently reached an all-time high.
  • Marvell’s investor day included a forecast for roughly 60% compound annual revenue growth through 2031, which the speaker described as exceptional. Despite that outlook, Marvell shares fell from around $300 to $277 during the session.
  • The speaker said NVIDIA’s growth could continue to support the broader semiconductor ecosystem, including suppliers of networking and optical infrastructure, but emphasized that future growth expectations still need to be met.
  • SpaceX was reportedly seeking financing for a potential $40 billion purchase of NVIDIA chips, a prospective source of demand for NVIDIA but also a possible increase in SpaceX’s debt burden.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s bullish semiconductor thesis rests on sustained AI infrastructure spending. Compare that outlook with actual revenue growth and future guidance.
  • Strong demand expectations do not eliminate valuation or execution risk, particularly for companies priced for rapid growth.

SpaceX (private company)

  • SpaceX shares were discussed as facing a substantial unlock: about 2 billion shares of an estimated 13.18 billion-share float could become available over the next two months, with further shares unlocking by year-end.
  • The speaker said SpaceX had so far absorbed insider and other share sales relatively well, and relayed an unverified account that some investors may be reluctant to sell because they want access to Elon Musk’s other private companies.
  • SpaceX was reportedly exploring a financing package involving about $10 billion in bank financing and $30 billion in investment-grade debt to help fund NVIDIA chip purchases. The deal was described as preliminary.
  • Musk publicly played down the role of TSMC in the proposed “TerraFab,” saying SpaceX and Tesla would build and operate the facility, with TSMC potentially playing a limited role.
  • The speaker said the scale and execution of the chip-manufacturing project remain major questions. SpaceX was also down in the session amid broader market weakness.

Takeaways

  • The potential share unlock could increase selling pressure, while the proposed debt financing and ambitious manufacturing plans add execution and financing questions.
  • The transcript includes speculation about investor loyalty and future access to Musk-led companies; that account was not independently established in the discussion.

Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN) and crypto-linked stocks

  • The speaker said crypto-related stocks, including Robinhood and Coinbase, were falling alongside Bitcoin.
  • Robinhood disclosed a $25 million Bitcoin holding on its balance sheet. The speaker described the amount as small but said it could make the stock more sensitive to Bitcoin if the company adds to the position.
  • The speaker also noted that Robinhood’s broader crypto initiatives could make the company more connected to crypto-market performance.

Takeaways

  • Crypto exposure may add upside if digital assets rise, but it can also increase volatility. For Robinhood, the disclosed Bitcoin amount was small relative to the company’s balance sheet; future purchases would matter more.

Webull (BULL)

  • Webull shares fell sharply after a bipartisan U.S. congressional committee report alleged that the company’s ownership, infrastructure, staffing, and data flows have structural ties to China.
  • The speaker said the claims could create a regulatory overhang even if investors consider the immediate concerns overstated. A U.S. requirement to separate operations from Chinese counterparts could entail restructuring costs.
  • Shares were down about 20% during the session after falling further in pre-market trading.

Takeaways

  • This is a regulatory and geopolitical-risk story, not simply a market-momentum decline. Monitor Webull’s response and any U.S. regulatory action before drawing conclusions about the longer-term impact.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The speaker remained a shareholder but questioned whether consumer AI agents such as Meta’s Muse will become widely used enough to justify the investment and computing costs.
  • He said agents may have stronger business-to-business applications, including business tools built around WhatsApp, than everyday consumer uses such as booking flights or ordering food.
  • The speaker argued that Meta needs clear, recurring use cases and scale. He also identified potential capital spending and legal costs as considerations.

Takeaways

  • Meta’s AI opportunity depends not only on the technology but on sustained user adoption and monetization. Track evidence of repeat use and business revenue, not just product launches.
  • The speaker remained cautious about consumer-agent adoption but did not make a bearish call on Meta overall.

Palantir (PLTR), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) and CrowdStrike (CRWD)

  • Dan Ives’s stated top five technology picks for 2027 included NVIDIA, Microsoft, Palantir, Apple and CrowdStrike.
  • The speaker agreed that these are prominent industry leaders but questioned whether Apple and CrowdStrike were attractive at current valuations. He specifically said CrowdStrike’s valuation was difficult to justify.
  • Palantir was cited as having strong growth and software margins; the speaker said continued growth could support its valuation, while noting that expectations remain high.

Takeaways

  • The list reflects one analyst’s preferences, not a recommendation from the host. For these high-profile stocks, assess valuation alongside the growth and margins needed to support it.

Uber (UBER)

  • The speaker liked Uber’s $2.3 billion cash acquisition of Easy Cater, saying it could expand Uber Eats into corporate catering and potentially improve margins. He cited Easy Cater’s reported use by 93% of Fortune 500 companies and an average order value of about $400.
  • He also pointed to Uber’s free cash flow, share repurchases and insider buying as positives, while noting that the stock had fallen and that higher oil prices could weigh on sentiment.
  • The speaker said he owned Uber shares with an average entry price of $74.

Takeaways

  • The acquisition could broaden Uber Eats’ corporate business, but its value depends on integration and whether it contributes to margins and cash flow as expected.
  • The speaker’s disclosed position is personal context, not a universal recommendation.

Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy (CEG)

  • The speaker said he viewed Vistra as potentially worth $185 per share and discussed a possible $180–$200 range if it secures major hyperscaler power deals. These were his stated estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
  • A Constellation deal with Google was described as supportive of the wider power-generation sector and the prospect of more data-center power contracts.
  • The speaker’s thesis is that electricity demand from data centers could support power companies, though Vistra would need additional large customer deals to strengthen the case.

Takeaways

  • Power demand is a potential AI-infrastructure investment theme. For Vistra, monitor new hyperscaler contracts and the company’s ability to deliver on them; the valuation case discussed was conditional.

IREN, Nebius (NBIS), CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD)

  • The speaker said the neocloud stocks were under pressure, with debt and dilution weighing on sentiment.
  • SemiAnalysis criticized IREN’s public claims about managed cloud services and cited customer reports of reliability problems. It also acknowledged demand for IREN’s bare-metal GPU offerings. The speaker noted that SemiAnalysis’s commentary has moved these stocks in the past.
  • The speaker said he disliked IREN’s management, compensation structure and dilution history, and was waiting for larger customer deals and clearer evidence of execution.
  • Applied Digital was scheduled to report earnings, making it an early indicator for the neocloud group.

Takeaways

  • These companies may benefit from demand for AI computing, but investors should distinguish contracted capacity and reliable service from general demand projections.
  • Debt, dilution, customer concentration and execution were prominent risks in the discussion. IREN in particular drew criticism from the speaker.

Akamai (AKAM)

  • The speaker said Akamai had recently announced large deals, including an Anthropic-related deal, but its shares had fallen back toward $104 after an earlier rally.
  • He saw potential in AI-related demand for content delivery networks but cautioned that Akamai had not yet demonstrated the kind of growth acceleration discussed for Marvell.
  • He said the shares could take time to recover and compared the possibility to Marvell’s lengthy period of consolidation before its stronger move.

Takeaways

  • Akamai’s potential depends on AI-related demand translating into sustained revenue growth. The transcript’s view was cautiously interested, with no price target or near-term catalyst specified.

Treasury yields, oil and broad-market exposure

  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.36%, a new 52-week high in the discussion; the 30-year yield was also elevated. The speaker said yields had often risen without stopping stocks recently, but acknowledged that higher rates can pressure valuations and financing costs.
  • Oil was around $90–$91 per barrel, and the transcript discussed attacks on refineries, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk that higher energy costs could add to inflation.
  • The speaker noted that more than half of S&P 500 stocks were below their 200-day moving averages, suggesting gains were concentrated in large technology and semiconductor stocks.
  • He also said smaller companies may be more exposed to high borrowing costs and energy prices because they typically have less access to capital and, in some cases, more debt.

Takeaways

  • Higher yields and oil prices are key risks to the market’s growth-stock and small-cap segments. Monitor whether they persist and whether market gains broaden beyond a relatively narrow group of large companies.
  • The transcript did not give a specific index target or recommend an immediate market-wide trade.

Deere (DE), Caterpillar (CAT) and industrial stocks

  • Deere, Caterpillar and other industrial shares fell during the session.
  • The transcript reported that the U.S. government was probing possible anti-competitive conduct in the farm-equipment industry, contributing to pressure on Deere.
  • The speaker did not identify a clear catalyst for Caterpillar’s decline, while noting that some analysts had raised concerns about valuation and slower demand.

Takeaways

  • Deere faces potential regulatory risk tied to farm-equipment competition. For Caterpillar and other industrials, the transcript raised valuation and demand concerns but did not establish a single confirmed cause for the day’s decline.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!