Palantir (PLTR) is viewed as a high-conviction opportunity ahead of its upcoming earnings report, with the potential to reach $200 per share by year-end on strong results. For a "picks and shovels" play on the AI theme, consider Amcor (AMCR), a key supply chain partner specifically endorsed by NVIDIA's CEO for its role in onshoring manufacturing. The long-term bullish case for NVIDIA (NVDA) itself remains intact, supported by an upgraded price target of $320 from HSBC. A more speculative, short-term earnings trade is SoFi (SOFI), with a suggested entry point below $26.50. Keep an eye on US-China trade negotiations, as any positive developments could serve as a major market catalyst.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• CEO Jensen Huang gave a bullish interview discussing the AI industrial revolution, stating we are only in the "very, very beginning part of that journey."
• NVIDIA and TSMC (TSM) have successfully developed the wafer for the new Blackwell chip in America for the first time.
  • Jensen credited President Trump's tariffs as a "pressing agent" in making this domestic manufacturing possible.
  • He projects that in the next 3-4 years, the US will manufacture about half a trillion dollars of AI supercomputing technology.
• Jensen mentioned Amcor (AMCR) as a key partner in bringing the AI infrastructure supply chain back to the United States.
• Regarding China, Jensen expressed concern that NVIDIA has gone from 95% market share to 0% due to US policy.
  • He stated that all of NVIDIA's forecasts assume zero revenue from China, and any future sales would be a "bonus."
• Wall Street sentiment appears bullish, with HSBC upgrading NVDA to a $320 price target, implying a $7.5 trillion market cap.

Takeaways

• The narrative around NVIDIA remains strongly bullish, centered on the long-term growth of the AI revolution and the onshoring of critical semiconductor manufacturing to the US.
• The mention of Amcor (AMCR) by the CEO of the world's most important AI company is a significant endorsement for the smaller supply chain partner.
• The complete loss of the China market is a significant headwind, but it is now fully priced into the company's forecasts. Any positive developments in US-China trade negotiations could provide a significant, unexpected boost to revenue.

Palantir (PLTR)

• The speaker is very bullish on Palantir, suggesting it could make a run to $200 per share by the end of the year, contingent on a broader bull market.
• The Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of Palantir, Sham Sankar, wrote a widely discussed op-ed in the Wall Street Journal titled "Why the China Doves Are Wrong," arguing for a hardline stance against the CCP.
• The speaker believes Palantir is the "most exciting story in software" due to its high growth rate in the AI sector, strong margins, and potential for international expansion.
  • They anticipate 51% to 52% growth in the upcoming earnings report, ahead of the Street's expectation of 48%.
  • They contrast Palantir's high growth with Salesforce's (CRM) projected 10% growth, suggesting PLTR is a more compelling investment story.
• The speaker noted that the stock has been flat for two months, which they view as a healthy breather before a potential move higher on strong earnings.

Takeaways

• There are high expectations for Palantir's upcoming earnings report, with the speaker anticipating a significant beat on revenue growth.
• The investment thesis is based on Palantir being a best-in-class AI software company with a massive growth runway, particularly with US government and commercial clients.
• The stock's recent consolidation could set it up for a significant move if earnings and guidance are as strong as anticipated.

Tesla (TSLA)

• Tesla has earnings coming up on Wednesday. The speaker seems neutral to slightly bearish on the short-term stock reaction.
• Deliveries of 497,000 cars were better than expected but are likely already priced into the stock.
• The Street is expecting negative year-over-year growth for both earnings and revenue.
• Positive catalysts that have already helped the stock recover from its lows include:
  • The likely approval of Elon Musk's compensation package.
  • Elon Musk's purchase of $1 billion worth of stock.
  • Strong deliveries driven by the expiring EV credit.
• The speaker questions what new information could drive the stock significantly higher, as Elon Musk himself guided for lower growth until the end of 2026.
• A personal anecdote mentioned that the latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) software update (13.2.9) is "way better," particularly with the reduction of nagging alerts.

Takeaways

• Expectations for Tesla's earnings report are muted. The key question is whether the company can provide a new catalyst to justify a move higher, such as a major deal for its Optimus robot or a surprise in its Energy division.
• With recent positive news already priced in and guidance for negative growth, the stock may trade flat or down unless there is a significant surprise.
• Long-term investors may see improvements in FSD as a positive sign for the company's future, but it is unlikely to impact the upcoming earnings report financially.

SoFi (SOFI)

• The speaker has decided to take an "earnings gamble" on SoFi.
• They plan to buy 500 shares, hoping to get in at a price of $26.50 or below.
• The decision is partly influenced by social media hype around the company potentially reaching one million members.

Takeaways

• This is a speculative, short-term trade based on the upcoming earnings report. The speaker acknowledges it's a "gamble."
• Investors considering a similar trade should be aware of the high risk associated with buying a stock just before an earnings announcement, as the price can move dramatically in either direction.

Amcor (AMCR)

• Amcor was specifically mentioned by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang as a key partner in the effort to build the AI supply chain in the United States.
• The speaker notes that Amcor is one of the only companies that can do advanced semiconductor packaging in the US.
• The company is valued at 1.15 times sales and has a market cap of around $7 billion, which is relatively small for a company receiving this level of attention.

Takeaways

• The direct mention from Jensen Huang is a major vote of confidence and highlights Amcor's strategic importance in the onshoring of the semiconductor industry.
• For investors looking for a "picks and shovels" play on the AI and US manufacturing theme, AMCR presents a potential opportunity at a seemingly reasonable valuation.

Robinhood (HOOD)

• The speaker sees potential catalysts for Robinhood stock.
• The upcoming NBA season is expected to drive more activity on its prediction markets.
• Robinhood is officially sending out beta invites for its banking product, which could be a new tailwind for growth in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.
• The stock's recent run-up from $120 to $150 was seen as "a bit aggressive," and its pullback to the $132 level is viewed as more reasonable.

Takeaways

• Robinhood is expanding its product offerings beyond simple stock trading, with banking and prediction markets being key new initiatives.
• Successful rollouts of these new products could provide significant growth catalysts for the company and its stock.

Duolingo (DUOL)

• The speaker recently completed a deep-dive analysis of Duolingo.
• They came away with a lot of respect for the company, particularly its data advantage in language learning, which they believe creates a strong competitive moat.
• Despite this, the speaker is not establishing a position in the stock.
  • The primary reason is valuation. The analysis suggested a potential 2x return over 5-10 years, which is good but not compelling enough compared to other AI-related infrastructure plays.

Takeaways

• Duolingo is a high-quality company with a strong business model and a significant data advantage that may protect it from competitors.
• However, from a valuation perspective, it may not offer the explosive upside potential that investors can find in other parts of the market, particularly in AI infrastructure. It's viewed as a solid company that will likely outperform the market, but not a "must-buy" opportunity at current prices.

Investment Theme: US-China Relations

• Negotiations are a key market driver. President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi in late October or early November.
• Trump's recent comments suggest a willingness to negotiate. He stated, "we can lower what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to do things for us too."
• He also expressed confidence in reaching a soybean deal with China.
• The market reacted positively to these comments, with stock futures turning green. The speaker believes Trump is using NVIDIA chips as a final bargaining chip to secure concessions from China.

Takeaways

• Market sentiment is highly sensitive to news about US-China trade negotiations.
• Positive, less aggressive rhetoric from the US administration is being interpreted as bullish for the market, as it reduces the risk of a damaging tariff war.
• A potential deal could be a major catalyst for the market, especially for companies with exposure to China, and could unlock the "bonus" revenue that NVIDIA has currently written off.

Investment Theme: Gold

• Gold has had a massive run, up 65% for the year at the time of the podcast.
• A key driver is central banks, which now hold over 20% of their reserves in gold, the highest share in nearly three decades.
• Gold is now officially a Tier 1 asset on central bank balance sheets, making it "as good as cash."
• The main risk that could end the gold bull market is a global recession, which would force central banks to sell gold to finance stimulus, similar to what happened in 2011.

Takeaways

• The demand for gold is being driven by major institutional players (central banks), not just retail speculation, which suggests a durable trend.
• Investors in gold should monitor the global macroeconomic outlook closely. Signs of a severe global recession could be a signal to take profits, as it has historically been the catalyst that ends major gold rallies.