COREWEAVE Q3 2026 EARNINGS LIVE | MARKET CLOSE
COREWEAVE Q3 2026 EARNINGS LIVE | MARKET CLOSE
12 hours ago•Amit Kukreja•@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 44 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) offers the strongest direct growth case: Q3 revenue rose 168% to $3.7 billion, and 2026 revenue guidance is $13–$13.3 billion; consider it only if comfortable with high volatility and monitor backlog conversion, debt costs, and capacity delivery.
  • For a lower-risk NeoCloud alternative, Nebius (NBIS) was the panel’s preferred name, but verify its financing, contracts, and deployment progress before investing; the cited growth figures were panel estimates, not detailed company guidance.
  • Treat NVIDIA (NVDA) as a watchlist opportunity rather than a clear buy: its valuation was described as unusually low, but unresolved allegations and leadership uncertainty could keep shares volatile; distinguish confirmed developments from claims.
Detailed Analysis

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • Bullish operating results: Q3 revenue was $3.7 billion, up 168% year over year and above guidance. Adjusted operating income was $379 million, with a 10% adjusted operating margin.
  • Large backlog, but conversion matters: Revenue backlog reached about $133 billion. Management said more than half is tied to contracts expected to begin delivery by year-end, and described demand as substantially greater than available capacity.
  • Raised outlook: CoreWeave raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13–$13.3 billion and expects to exit 2026 with $20–$21 billion in annualized run-rate revenue. It also raised its 2026 CapEx outlook to $37–$39 billion.
  • Management’s financing case: Management expects about $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months, says its average cost of debt was 7.9% at quarter-end, and said it does not intend to issue more parent-level unsecured debt at current yields through 2027. It expects less than $5 billion in incremental parent-level capital through 2027.
  • Potential returns from existing infrastructure: Management said more than 130,000 GPUs come off contract in 2027 and another 170,000 in 2028. It estimated that renewals at current pricing could add nearly $4 billion in annualized revenue in 2027 and nearly $10 billion including 2028, without additional CapEx.
  • Risks raised in the discussion: The company remains capital-intensive and reported a $709 million net loss and $846 million in Q3 interest expense. Execution delays, financing costs, regulatory or construction issues, and a possible normalization or oversupply of compute were all discussed as concerns. Management’s financing and demand claims are forward-looking.

Takeaways

  • The quarter and higher guidance strengthened the growth case, while management’s explanation of contract-backed financing and customer prepayments addressed key concerns raised on the show.
  • The central investment question is whether CoreWeave can bring contracted capacity online on schedule, convert backlog into cash flow, and manage its debt burden. Track backlog conversion, CapEx, interest expense, prepayments, and operating margins in future quarters.
  • The discussion was positive on the business prospects but acknowledged that the stock may remain volatile and that execution and financing risks are significant.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The panel discussed a sharp sell-off, with the stock cited at about $168, down 5.8% that day, and its forward P/E described as at a 10-year low.
  • The discussion included allegations concerning chip shipments diverted to China and a possible investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang. The transcript also noted that key claims about national-security implications and export-control violations had not been confirmed by U.S. officials.
  • Panelists said the uncertainty could distract Huang and create leadership and corporate-governance risks. They also noted that NVIDIA’s product plans and customer orders are already in place, and argued that a successor could potentially continue the business.
  • The panel’s view was that AMD and Broadcom’s strength looked partly like an “anti-NVIDIA” trade, not evidence that customers were canceling NVIDIA orders.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a conflict between NVIDIA’s valuation and product-demand case and a potentially serious, unresolved leadership and legal overhang.
  • Investors may want to distinguish confirmed developments from allegations and monitor company statements, investigations, and management’s ability to remain focused on execution.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • One panelist identified Nebius as their preferred NeoCloud company, describing it as lower risk and faster-growing than CoreWeave.
  • The discussion cited approximate run-rate figures of $8 billion for the current year and $23 billion for the following year; these were panel comments, not detailed guidance in the transcript.
  • Nebius shares rose after CoreWeave’s results, and panelists suggested that CoreWeave’s comments on demand, pricing, and customer prepayments could be supportive for the broader NeoCloud group.

Takeaways

  • The transcript expresses a favorable relative view of Nebius, but provides limited company-specific evidence to assess its valuation or execution.
  • Compare its ability to finance and deliver new capacity with CoreWeave’s, rather than assuming that positive sector commentary benefits every provider equally.

IREN

  • IREN was mentioned as another NeoCloud-related name whose share price could be influenced by CoreWeave’s results.
  • The panel noted that IREN had recently discussed pricing for capacity, but gave no detailed figures or company-specific analysis here.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers only a broad sector read-through, not a standalone investment case. Review IREN’s own contracts, financing, and deployment progress before drawing conclusions from CoreWeave’s earnings.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD shares were described as holding up better than NVIDIA during the market decline, alongside Broadcom.
  • Panelists viewed some of the relative strength as an “anti-NVIDIA” trade. They did not expect NVIDIA-related uncertainty alone to result in customers canceling orders already placed for AMD products.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests potential short-term benefit from investors diversifying away from NVIDIA, but provides little evidence that AMD is gaining orders specifically because of the controversy.
  • Watch for actual customer demand and product updates rather than relying on relative share-price movements.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Broadcom was also described as trading well relative to NVIDIA during the sell-off.
  • The panel mentioned Broadcom’s role in custom AI chips and Google’s TPU ecosystem, while suggesting that existing customer plans were unlikely to change immediately because of NVIDIA’s situation.

Takeaways

  • The transcript points to Broadcom as part of the AI-chip alternatives theme, but does not establish that NVIDIA’s difficulties will translate into new Broadcom business.
  • Look for evidence of customer adoption and order growth in company disclosures.

Anthropic (Private)

  • The panel discussed a reportedly imminent IPO at a reported valuation of about $1.2 trillion. It also cited reported annual recurring revenue of $80 billion at the end of October and said the company was operating-cash-flow positive.
  • Anthropic had introduced AI tools for documents, spreadsheets, presentations, and meeting notes. Supporters saw its integrated Claude workspace and agent capabilities as a way to challenge established productivity software.
  • One panelist was not interested at the reported valuation, especially as other companies in the AI segment had fallen substantially. Another worried an IPO could draw investment money away from NeoCloud stocks.
  • The discussion also noted that Anthropic’s success could support companies such as NVIDIA and Palantir, though the panel did not quantify the effect.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a potentially strong product and growth story alongside substantial valuation and IPO-pricing uncertainty.
  • Treat the reported valuation, revenue, and IPO timing as unconfirmed within this transcript. Any investment case would depend on the actual offering terms and financial disclosures.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft shares were said to be down after Anthropic introduced new productivity tools.
  • Panelists argued that Microsoft’s Office ecosystem, bundling, and existing Copilot features remain meaningful advantages, and did not conclude that Anthropic’s products would displace Microsoft.
  • In the broader market discussion, Amazon and Microsoft were described as relatively safer places investors might favor during an AI-sector pullback.

Takeaways

  • The transcript frames Anthropic as a competitive pressure, not a decisive threat to Microsoft.
  • Watch whether new AI tools change customer adoption or pricing; the discussion itself emphasized Microsoft’s established ecosystem as a counterweight.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • The panel discussed Google Sheets and Gemini, including a Google CEO comment that current AI tools may seem as primitive as flip phones in three years.
  • One speaker criticized Gemini’s user experience and fragmented product ecosystem, while acknowledging that Google is making substantial revenue.
  • Google’s TPU ecosystem was also mentioned as a factor in demand for Broadcom.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights both Google’s AI ambitions and concerns about product usability and integration.
  • For an investment view, the key question is whether Google can turn its AI capabilities and ecosystem into products customers use and pay for.

OpenAI (Private)

  • The transcript cited a report that OpenAI’s Q3 revenue rose 50% to $10 billion.
  • The figure was discussed as part of competition between AI companies and as evidence of demand across the AI sector.

Takeaways

  • The reported growth is a positive demand signal for AI, but the transcript provides no valuation, profitability, or investment terms for OpenAI.
  • Consider it an industry indicator rather than a direct investment opportunity based on this discussion.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon was mentioned, alongside Microsoft, as a relatively safer platform investors may prefer during a short-term pullback in AI-related stocks.

Takeaways

  • This was a relative-market observation, not a specific recommendation or analysis of Amazon’s AI business.
  • The transcript provides no company-specific catalyst or price target.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta was cited as one of CoreWeave’s high-quality customers and as part of the customer base supporting the NeoCloud business model.
  • CoreWeave’s backlog was discussed as including contracts with major companies such as Meta and Microsoft.

Takeaways

  • The mention supports the view that AI infrastructure demand is not limited to smaller AI startups.
  • The transcript does not provide a separate outlook or recommendation for Meta shares.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Oracle was mentioned in two contexts: an online claim that Apple could compete with CoreWeave using connected Mac systems, and as a comparison point for corporate bond yields.
  • The panel rejected the idea that Apple’s proposed setup could replace CoreWeave’s large-scale data-center capacity. Oracle’s yields were cited as roughly 11%–12%, compared with higher yields being discussed for CoreWeave debt.

Takeaways

  • The discussion does not offer a direct investment view on Oracle. Its bond yield was used only as context for credit-market concerns around AI infrastructure companies.

Apple (AAPL)

  • The panel discussed a reported Apple project, “Harbor,” that could connect multiple Mac systems into a server.
  • Speakers argued that this was not a replacement for CoreWeave’s large, specialized data-center deployments and served different use cases.

Takeaways

  • The transcript treats the project as a limited competitive concern for CoreWeave, not as a material new investment thesis for Apple.
  • No financial details or expected commercial scale were provided.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir was mentioned as a company that could benefit from Anthropic’s success, but the panel did not explain the mechanism or estimate the benefit.

Takeaways

  • This is a brief, unquantified read-through rather than a developed investment case.
  • Look for company-specific evidence of partnerships, customer demand, or revenue impact before acting on the connection.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

  • SMCI was mentioned alongside NVIDIA and Bloom as a company the panel believed investors should be attentive to based on information in Anthropic’s reported IPO filing.
  • No specific financial details or causal explanation were provided in the discussion.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers too little detail to support a standalone view. Review the cited filing and SMCI’s own results before treating this as a catalyst.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • Bloom was mentioned with NVIDIA and SMCI as a possible beneficiary of information in Anthropic’s reported IPO filing.
  • The discussion did not give figures or explain the expected connection.

Takeaways

  • The mention is a limited, unsubstantiated read-through rather than a specific investment recommendation.

Costco (COST)

  • Costco was reported to have declared a $30-per-share special dividend, described by the panel as its largest ever and double its $15 special dividend in December 2023.
  • A panelist commented positively that dividends “don’t suck.”

Takeaways

  • The special dividend is a concrete shareholder-return event mentioned in the transcript.
  • The discussion does not assess Costco’s valuation, cash generation, or the sustainability of future special dividends.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Micron was used as an example of a fast-growing, increasingly profitable company that can be difficult for the market to value.
  • The panel drew a loose comparison to NeoCloud companies’ rapid growth, while stressing that CoreWeave is not comparable to a company producing large amounts of free cash flow.

Takeaways

  • The comparison highlights how high growth can complicate valuation, but does not provide a specific view on Micron shares.
  • The panel explicitly cautioned against treating Micron and NeoCloud companies as equivalent in profitability or risk.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel was mentioned in passing as an exception among semiconductor companies whose earnings had been strong; its challenges were attributed in the discussion to PC demand.

Takeaways

  • No detailed investment case or recommendation was given. The transcript’s observation is limited to PC demand as a concern.

SpaceX (Private)

  • A panelist compared CoreWeave’s 1.7 gigawatts of active power with SpaceX’s reported active power and contrasted CoreWeave’s roughly $25 billion market value with a stated $2 trillion SpaceX valuation.
  • The speaker acknowledged that the companies are very different and that the comparison is not like-for-like.

Takeaways

  • The comparison was used to emphasize CoreWeave’s infrastructure scale relative to its market value, not to claim that the businesses have comparable economics.
  • SpaceX is private, and the discussion provided no direct investment access or valuation analysis.

AI Infrastructure and NeoClouds

  • The panel described strong demand for compute, rising prices, and substantial backlogs across NeoCloud providers. CoreWeave said it had roughly 10 times as much qualified demand as available capacity through 2027.
  • Management argued that new capacity is being financed against customer contracts and that short-term contracts can earn higher pricing than long-term commitments.
  • The speakers also emphasized the sector’s capital intensity, debt exposure, construction and power constraints, and potential vulnerability if demand slows or interest rates rise.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme combines potentially rapid revenue growth with unusually high capital, financing, and execution risk.
  • Assess each provider’s contracted demand, customer quality, access to capital, deployment schedule, and ability to generate cash flow—not just its backlog or announced capacity.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!