CLARITY ACT FAILS, MARKETS GET READY FOR A HIKE, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
CLARITY ACT FAILS, MARKETS GET READY FOR A HIKE, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
12 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

For the broader S&P 500 (SPY), avoid aggressive buying until prices drop to stronger support near $730 or $700, while using VIX calls below 20 for short-term downside protection. Across the crypto market, refrain from chasing short-term rallies and instead look to accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) near $70,000 and Ethereum (ETH) around $2,100. Treat any pullback in NVIDIA (NVDA) into the $190–$200 range as a high-conviction long-term buying opportunity, while locking in partial profits on Qualcomm (QCOM) into strength near $190–$200. Enter Tesla (TSLA) on a dip into the $325–$338 zone with a strict stop-loss below $320 targeting $415, and dollar-cost average into Amazon (AMZN) near $230–$235 for long-term upside toward $325+. Steer clear of falling restaurant stocks pressured by high fuel costs, and instead monitor energy services leaders like Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) for entry points on pullbacks.

Detailed Analysis

S&P 500 Index (SPY)

  • Broader market dropped slightly to close around $757.42, sitting just below the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) low of $769.
  • Resistance remains firmly at $775, with secondary resistance at $770.
  • Downside support levels to watch are $750, $730, and potentially a major retest near $700 if market weakness deepens into the cycle dip.
  • Macro headwinds include rising oil prices ($105.70+), the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, and high expectations (91%–94%) of an upcoming Fed rate hike.

Takeaways

  • Avoid aggressively buying early pullbacks near $750; better risk/reward dip-buying opportunities lie near $730 or closer to $700.
  • Short-term hedges (such as VIX calls or near-term index puts) remain attractive while the VIX trades below 20.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Crypto Markets

  • Crypto names sold off heavily after the procedural vote for the Clarity Act failed in Congress.
  • Bitcoin wicked down to $75,000 before seeing buyers bounce the price back to $75,800+.
  • Technical indicators show Bitcoin is in a high consolidation squeeze, but it faces strong overhead resistance and could pull back toward the $70,000–$73,000 zone.
  • A fast V-shaped recovery to new highs is viewed as unlikely during a Fed rate-hiking cycle, pointing toward a 3-to-4 month basing period.

Takeaways

  • Do not chase rallies up into overhead resistance; long-term believers can look to accumulate near the $70,000 support level.
  • Expect range-bound or choppy action rather than an immediate run to $100,000.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Retains a slightly more constructive technical structure than Bitcoin after recently printing a higher high.
  • The primary retracement and support target on a broader market pullback sits near $2,085–$2,200.

Takeaways

  • Maintain existing long positions, but hold off on adding fresh capital until a retest of the $2,100 zone occurs.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • Plunged to an intraday low of $105.80 following the Clarity Act failure and news of an insider trading charge involving two employees, before rebounding to close near $110.45.
  • Key support sits around $108, with secondary support at $95 if selling pressure resumes.
  • Resistance remains at $125, where the stock previously failed to break out.

Takeaways

  • The stock continues to trade as a high-beta crypto proxy; look for accumulation entries closer to $95–$105 rather than chasing moves near $125.
  • Options traders can consider calendar spreads around the $110 strike heading into earnings.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Showed relative strength compared to the broader market, holding green at $212.
  • Support sits at $213, with a crucial secondary support level at $190–$200.
  • An immediate post-FOMC bounce needs to push the stock above $220 to maintain upward momentum.

Takeaways

  • If macro conditions drag the stock below $200 toward the $190 support level, view it as a high-conviction long-term buying opportunity.

Qualcomm (QCOM)

  • Jumped over 4% on news of co-developing organic bridge packaging technology with Samsung.
  • Moving averages are tightly coiled, suggesting potential for a continued short squeeze toward $220.
  • Immediate overhead resistance sits between $190 and $210.

Takeaways

  • Take partial profits on short-term call options into the current strength near $190–$200.
  • Look to reload long positions or long-term LEAPS on pullbacks toward the $180 level.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Trading around $356 and entering a cool-off period within a prevailing technical downtrend.
  • Key support for a potential dip-buy sits between $320 and $338.
  • Upside resistance target remains at $415; a break below $320 invalidates the intermediate bullish setup toward $415+.

Takeaways

  • Wait for a pullback into the $325–$338 support zone before initiating new long positions.
  • Place strict stop-losses below $320.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Closed green around $670 following announcements around custom internal silicon and rejection of calls for AI development pauses.
  • Faces heavy overhead resistance at $699–$700, with support sitting between $657 and $665.

Takeaways

  • Avoid buying at current breakout levels near $670–$700 due to the risk of a fakeout.
  • Look to buy dips if the stock pulls back to retest the $635–$657 support area.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Pressured by rising energy and freight costs alongside broader macroeconomic headwinds.
  • Lost initial support at $255 and is testing the $245 level, with the full earnings-move support level sitting at $235.
  • Wall Street average price targets sit around $325–$335, representing roughly 50% upside potential over the long term.

Takeaways

  • Short-term traders should prepare for further downside toward $235.
  • Long-term investors can gradually dollar-cost average as the price approaches $230–$235.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)

  • Experienced a sharp rejection from the critical $350 weekly resistance level, dipping toward $333 support.
  • Lacks immediate company-specific catalysts to propel market cap expansion in the current high-yield macro environment.

Takeaways

  • Expect sideways consolidation between $330 and $350.
  • Deep pullbacks into the $250–$275 range represent high-value long-term accumulation zones.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  • Displaying resilient price action by holding near $170, but trading below its 20-day moving average.
  • Overhead resistance sits at $168, while support lies in the $150–$156 range.

Takeaways

  • The stock appears toppy near current resistance; hold off on new purchases and wait for a higher low to form near $150–$155.
  • Premium sellers can consider selling out-of-the-money covered calls.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • Broke below key support at $360 and dropped toward the $337–$338 level.
  • Next major measured support range sits between $318 and $335.
  • Former support at $360 will now act as overhead resistance on any subsequent bounce.

Takeaways

  • Do not attempt to catch the falling knife immediately; wait for a basing pattern to develop between $318 and $335 before taking a position.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Holding above the psychological $900 level ahead of its upcoming earnings report on September 30.
  • Resistance is established at $1,050, while downside support sits in the $820–$850 range.

Takeaways

  • The memory trade remains volatile; wait for post-earnings clarity or enter closer to $820 support rather than chasing near $900–$1,000.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) & Cybersecurity Sector

  • CrowdStrike pushed upward into the $242 area, trading at elevated forward valuation multiples (2,500x forward earnings).
  • The cybersecurity sector is benefiting strongly from market demand for AI security and threat mitigation.
  • Akamai (AKAM), A10 Networks (ATEN), and F5 (FFIV) are highlighted as undervalued plays in network security and load balancing.

Takeaways

  • CrowdStrike is technically extended; wait for pullbacks toward $200 rather than buying at the top of the range.
  • Consider looking at lower-valuation network security plays like AKAM and ATEN for medium-to-long term holds (3–5 years).

Energy & Restaurant Sectors

  • Crude Oil surged to $105.70+, placing severe margin pressure on consumer-facing businesses.
  • Restaurant stocks experienced sharp selloffs due to inflationary fears and fuel cost pressures on consumer dining habits (Wingstop -12%, Kava -9%, Cheesecake Factory -8%, Texas Roadhouse -7%).
  • Energy infrastructure and oil services companies (XOP, SLB, HAL) present potential long-term value plays due to pipeline activity and elevated commodity prices.

Takeaways

  • Avoid catching falling knives in the restaurant sector until consumer spending and fuel price trends stabilize.
  • Monitor oil services equities (SLB, HAL) for entry points on pullbacks as multi-year energy infrastructure demand persists.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ jason - https://x.com/PaperGainsInc 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - Market Close 30:40 - SPY TA 35:55 - QQQ TA 43:21 - NVDA TA 45:50 - SPCX TA 49:23 - TSLA TA 54:12 - BTC TS 59:26 - NBIS TA 1:02:50 - CRWV IREN TA 1:08:19 - MU TA 1:21:17 - HOOD TA 1:15:30 - AVGO TA 1:22:02 - ORCL TA 1:26:49 - RKLB TA 1:30:40 - AMD TA 1:32:55 - META TA 1:37:50 - AMZN TA 1:43:00 - GOOGL TA 1:49:00 - PLTR TA 1:55:00 - Rapid Fire
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!