CHINA TENSIONS CONTINUE, AMD UP 10%, UNITED EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
CHINA TENSIONS CONTINUE, AMD UP 10%, UNITED EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
205 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube1 hr 57 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying Amazon (AMZN) as a long-term value play, as it trades at a significant valuation discount to its "Magnificent Seven" peers. Investors are rotating capital within the semiconductor sector, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showing strong momentum after hitting $240 per share. The recent 10-20% pullback in the rare earth metals sector (REMX, MP) may present a buying opportunity for those who believe in the long-term on-shoring theme. For a play on energy storage and data centers, look at EnerSys (ENS), a profitable company with an attractive valuation at a 10 P/E ratio. Another new idea is Amkor Technology (AMKR), a "cheap" semiconductor supply chain company trading at just 1-time sales.

Detailed Analysis

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

  • The stock was up over 15% on the day, driven by the launch of a new line of products for its "HERS" brand.
  • The new products are treatment plans for women experiencing perimenopause and menopause.
  • This news, combined with a high percentage of the stock being shorted (over 30%), likely caused a "short squeeze," where investors who bet against the stock were forced to buy shares, driving the price up rapidly.
  • The podcast host believes the company is cheap and has strong growth rates.
  • He personally sold half of his position to take profits after the big run-up. He emphasized this was a portfolio management decision to reduce the position's size, not a bearish signal on the company's future.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Catalyst: The expansion into the menopause market is seen as a significant growth driver, exciting investors about the company's total addressable market.
  • High Risk/Reward: The stock has a high level of short interest. This means that while positive news can cause sharp upward movements (a squeeze), the stock is also volatile and viewed skeptically by a large portion of the market.
  • Profit-Taking: For investors who have held the stock, the host's action of selling half his shares suggests it could be a prudent time to take some profits off the table after a significant one-day gain, while still maintaining exposure for future growth.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD had a very strong day, closing up nearly 10% and hitting $240 per share in after-hours trading.
  • The upward move was attributed to a couple of factors:
    • Catching up to positive news regarding a partnership with Oracle for GPUs.
    • An analyst upgrade from HSBC.
  • The host noted that while many other semiconductor stocks were also up, AMD was a clear outperformer for the day.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The market is reacting very positively to AMD's role in the AI and data center space, particularly its GPU partnerships.
  • Rotation in Semis: The host suggested that some investors might be rotating capital from the sector leader, NVIDIA, into other strong semiconductor names like AMD that may have more room to run in the short term.
  • Key Level: The $240 price level appears to be a significant psychological and technical point for the stock. Holding above this level could signal further upward momentum.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The host revealed he bought more shares of Amazon at $214, viewing it now as a long-term position rather than a short-term trade.
  • A key bullish point is Amazon's valuation. Its Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple is 17.3, which is a 56% discount compared to the average of the other "Magnificent Seven" stocks.
  • The host believes this discount is overly pessimistic, especially since some of the other Mag 7 companies (like Apple and Tesla) are not growing as fast.
  • Another potential catalyst is Amazon's significant investment in the AI company Anthropic. Anthropic is projecting explosive revenue growth (from $1B to $9B in a year), which would directly benefit Amazon's cloud division, AWS, where Anthropic runs its models.

Takeaways

  • Value Play: For investors looking for exposure to big tech without paying the high valuations of its peers, Amazon presents a compelling value proposition. The 56% discount to the Mag 7 average is a key metric to consider.
  • Long-Term Hold: The discussion frames Amazon as a stock to "back-hold" if necessary. This implies a strategy of buying at current levels with the patience to wait for the market to recognize its value, rather than expecting a quick pop.
  • Hidden AI Play: While not always the first name mentioned in the AI conversation, Amazon's stake in Anthropic and the resulting AWS workloads represent a significant, and perhaps undervalued, tailwind for the company.

United Airlines (UAL)

  • United reported earnings that beat profit expectations ($2.78 EPS vs. $2.67 expected) but slightly missed on revenue.
  • Despite the revenue miss, the company provided very bullish guidance for the fourth quarter.
  • Key Guidance Points:
    • Expecting the highest total operating revenue in its history in Q4.
    • Plans to invest $1 billion in 2026 due to "improving economic conditions and strengthening travel demand."
  • This strong outlook suggests the company sees no slowdown in consumer travel spending.
  • The stock initially popped on the news but gave back its gains in after-hours trading.

Takeaways

  • Consumer Strength: United's incredibly positive forecast is a strong signal about the health of the consumer, particularly their willingness to spend on travel. This contradicts some narratives about a weakening economy.
  • Industry Leader: The company is investing heavily in customer experience (Starlink, seatback screens, food) to win and retain loyal customers, which appears to be a successful strategy.
  • Potential Opportunity: The stock's failure to hold its initial post-earnings gains, despite the stellar guidance, could present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in the company's strong outlook.

Semiconductor Sector

  • There was a broad rally in semiconductor stocks, with names like Broadcom (AVGO), Dell (DELL), Lam Research (LRCX), and Intel (INTC) all finishing in the green.
  • The notable exception was NVIDIA (NVDA), which was flat to slightly down for most of the day.
  • The host interpreted this as a "rotation" where investors are taking profits from the high-flying NVIDIA and moving into other semiconductor companies that are also poised to benefit from the AI boom but have lower valuations.

Takeaways

  • Broadening Rally: The strength in the semiconductor sector is not just an NVIDIA story. Investors are looking for other ways to play the AI trend, which is bullish for the sector as a whole.
  • Consider Alternatives to NVIDIA: While NVIDIA is the clear leader, its massive run-up and high valuation may present risks. Investors could look at other strong players in the ecosystem like AMD, TSM, or AVGO for potentially better risk/reward opportunities.
  • Watch TSM Earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reports earnings tomorrow. As the world's largest chip manufacturer, its results and guidance will provide a crucial read-through for the entire industry's health.

Rare Earth & Critical Metals Sector (REMX, MP, UROY)

  • The rare earth metals sector experienced a significant pullback, with many stocks down 10-20%.
  • The host believes this was simply profit-taking after the sector went up 3x to 5x in the past month and is not due to a change in the fundamental story.
  • The long-term thesis remains intact: The US government is focused on building a domestic supply chain for these critical minerals to reduce reliance on China. Treasury Secretary Basen's comments about needing to be "self-sufficient" support this.
  • Uranium Royalty (UROY) was a standout, surging over 25% after hours on an unconfirmed rumor that the US government was taking a stake in the company.

Takeaways

  • Buy the Dip?: For investors with a long-term belief in the on-shoring of critical minerals, this pullback could be an opportunity to enter or add to positions at lower prices.
  • High Volatility: This sector is prone to extreme moves in both directions. The massive run-up followed by a sharp drop, and the rumor-fueled spike in UROY, highlight the speculative nature and high risk involved.
  • Focus on the Theme: A diversified approach, such as through an ETF like REMX, could be a way to gain exposure to the theme while mitigating single-stock risk.

New Investment Ideas

  • Amkor Technology (AMKR):
    • Thesis: A "cheap" play on the semiconductor on-shoring trend. The company plays a key role in the semiconductor supply chain (packaging and testing).
    • Valuation: Trades at just 1-time sales, which is very low for a profitable tech company in a major growth sector.
    • Takeaway: The host sees it as a lower-risk way to invest in the semiconductor boom, comparing it to where Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was before its massive run. He has a position in the stock.
  • EnerSys (ENS):
    • Thesis: A leader in battery and energy storage that is profitable, has no debt, and is positioned in three key growth trends: data centers, robotics, and national security.
    • Valuation: Very attractive at a 10 P/E ratio and 1-time price-to-sales.
    • Takeaway: The host presented this as a compelling alternative to high-flying, speculative, and unprofitable energy stocks. It offers exposure to the energy/battery trend but with a much higher margin of safety due to its strong fundamentals and cheap valuation. The host is strongly considering buying it.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - HIMS AMD 15:00 - Market Close and United Earnings 26:40 - Trump 52:00 - Back to Trump 1:05:40 - Palantir 1:22:18 - Q&A
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!