CHINA ISSUES CONTINUE, BANK EARNINGS CRUSH, CRYPTO GETS HIT | MARKET OPEN
CHINA ISSUES CONTINUE, BANK EARNINGS CRUSH, CRYPTO GETS HIT | MARKET OPEN
207 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube3 hr 8 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as a long-term AI investment, as its future is bolstered by a major deal with Oracle to supply 50,000 AI chips starting in 2026. Analysts are increasingly bullish on growth stocks, with Piper Sandler raising price targets on Palantir (PLTR) to $201 and Robinhood (HOOD) to $155. Major banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) beat earnings expectations, presenting a potential buying opportunity as their stocks dipped on macro fears. For higher-risk investors, Cantor Fitzgerald issued a $100 price target on IREN (IREN), betting on its successful pivot from Bitcoin mining to an AI data center provider. As a direct trade on geopolitical tensions, domestic rare earth producers like MP Materials (MP) are benefiting from China's export restrictions.

Detailed Analysis

Macro Theme: China-U.S. Tensions

  • The market opened red due to news that China is tightening scrutiny on rare earth magnet export licenses. This is perceived as an escalation of trade tensions.
  • The host notes that the market is taking a hit because "the China situation gets worse than algos are gonna do what algos do," affecting even unrelated companies like SoFi (SOFI).
  • The host's take is that this issue will likely be resolved over time and is not a reason for long-term panic. He believes it might create more opportunities to "buy the dip."
  • An interview with U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer later in the podcast seemed to calm the market. Greer clarified that the U.S. response (threatening tariffs) was due to China escalating first by restricting rare earths, breaking a previous understanding.
  • Greer's comments suggested the U.S. has leverage and that China may have "overstepped," which caused a significant market recovery during the podcast.

Takeaways

  • The volatility is driven by geopolitical headlines and algorithmic trading. The host suggests this creates short-term noise but may not affect long-term fundamentals.
  • The market's V-shaped recovery after the U.S. Trade Representative's comments indicates that the initial fear may have been an overreaction.
  • Investors should be aware that this is an "unknown that is out there," and any dip-buying comes with the risk of further escalation.

Investment Theme: Artificial Intelligence (AI) & Data Centers

  • The host emphasizes the massive capital expenditure (CapEx) flowing into AI. An estimated $1.5 trillion is needed for data centers in the next five years, not including chips.
  • Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock (BLK), is quoted as being very bullish on the data center space and the growth of cloud computing and AI.
  • The host mentions that hyperscalers like Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) are projected to spend over $543 billion in CapEx by calendar year 2027.
  • The host discusses the debate between the bull case (Sam Altman needing immense compute power) and the bear case (former Intel CEO calling it a bubble). The host leans bullish, believing the return on investment (ROI) for AI will be proven.

Takeaways

  • The AI build-out is a primary investment thesis. Investing in companies that are beneficiaries of this massive spending, from chipmakers to data center operators, is a key theme.
  • The host believes that to invest in this space, "you have to believe in five years there is going to be a measurable increase in the return on investment via AI."
  • Companies that provide the "picks and shovels" for the AI gold rush, such as data center infrastructure and cooling technology, are seeing significant investor interest.

Investment Theme: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)

  • The host dedicates a segment to managing FOMO, especially with stocks like IREN (IREN) and Oklo (OKLO) that have seen massive gains.
  • He advises listeners to ask themselves if they are happy with their year-to-date performance and if they truly need to take on more risk.
  • His core advice is to only invest in companies you understand well. "If you're asking, hey, should I buy IREN because it keeps going up? You probably don't know the company that well."
  • He suggests that it's okay to delay new portfolio additions until 2026, as there will likely be other market sell-offs that provide better entry points.

Takeaways

  • Avoid chasing stocks that have already run up significantly unless you have high conviction and have done the research.
  • The host suggests that sleeping well at night is more important than chasing every hot stock. He uses his preference for buying Amazon (AMZN) over a more speculative name like Bitfarms (BITF) as an example.
  • For those who want to take "moonshot" risks, he suggests sizing these positions small enough that you are willing to lose the entire amount.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • Bitcoin was trading at $110,000 and Ethereum was at $3,944, having dropped below $4,000.
  • A major crypto whale, who previously shorted crypto before a negative Trump tweet, has a new $400 million short on Bitcoin.
    • The short was initiated at $116,000 with a liquidation price of $126,000. The whale is already profitable on this trade.
  • BlackRock (BLK) CEO Larry Fink stated that over $4.5 trillion is held in digital assets and he expects the market to "expand rapidly."
  • The host notes that $200 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated from the crypto markets in the morning.
  • During the podcast, Bitcoin recovered to $112,000 and Ethereum reclaimed the $4,000 level following the broader market recovery.

Takeaways

  • There is significant bearish pressure from at least one major whale, which could be contributing to the price weakness.
  • Despite short-term volatility, major institutional players like BlackRock remain very bullish on the long-term future of digital assets and tokenization.
  • The price action is closely tied to the broader market sentiment, as shown by its recovery alongside the S&P 500.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • Oracle (ORCL) announced it will be deploying 50,000 of AMD's future MI450 AI chips in its data centers.
  • This deal is for the second half of 2026, so the revenue impact is not immediate but signals a long-term win.
  • The stock was up 1.77% in the pre-market on this news and held its green status throughout the market sell-off.
  • The podcast highlights that major customers like Oracle and OpenAI are increasingly seeing AMD as a "viable competitor for inference" workloads against NVIDIA.

Takeaways

  • AMD is successfully gaining market share in the AI chip space, particularly for inference, which is a major positive for the company's long-term growth story.
  • The strong relationship with Oracle and OpenAI validates AMD's technology and strategy.
  • The stock showed relative strength, staying positive while the broader market was down, indicating strong investor conviction in the news.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Palantir received a price target upgrade from Piper Sandler to $201 from $182.
  • The analyst acknowledges the valuation is high but argues Palantir has "not reached peak growth yet" due to its large contract value and opportunity in U.S. defense spending.
  • The company's pop-up merch store in Seoul, South Korea, was mentioned as a successful brand-building event, with CEO Alex Karp making an appearance.
  • The host mentions that Palantir is one of his top 5 personal holdings.

Takeaways

  • Wall Street sentiment is turning more bullish, with analysts raising price targets despite the high valuation.
  • The bull case rests on continued massive growth in both government and commercial sectors, justifying its premium multiple.
  • The company is actively building a global brand, which could be a positive long-term intangible asset.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Piper Sandler increased its price target on Robinhood to $155 from $140, which was just raised from $125 the week prior.
  • The company's head of futures stated they are open to acquisitions in the prediction market space (like Kalshi or Polymarket), which is seen as a new, significant revenue opportunity.
  • The host mentions that Robinhood is one of his top 5 personal holdings.
  • JPMorgan data showed Robinhood was one of the top 3 stocks bought by retail investors during the dip on Friday, alongside Meta and NVIDIA.

Takeaways

  • Analysts are rapidly becoming more bullish on Robinhood, citing new growth avenues like prediction markets.
  • The company is actively looking to expand its product offerings through M&A, which could accelerate growth.
  • Retail investors show strong conviction in the stock, actively buying it on dips.

IREN (Iris Energy)

  • IREN received a $100 price target upgrade from Cantor Fitzgerald, who is "super bullish" on the name.
  • The analyst thesis is that IREN's GPUs will be more utilized than other Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, leading to more revenue and growth.
  • The stock was up in the pre-market despite the broader market being down, but sold off with the market open before recovering.
  • The host uses IREN as a prime example in his discussion about FOMO, cautioning listeners against buying it just because it's going up.

Takeaways

  • Analysts are extremely bullish on IREN's pivot from Bitcoin mining to an AI data center play.
  • The stock is highly volatile and has had a massive run-up. The host suggests that investing at these levels requires a deep understanding of the company and a high tolerance for risk.
  • The "IREN army" is mentioned as having done strong due diligence, implying that successful investors in this name did their homework early.

Bank Sector (JPM, BLK, C, GS, WFC)

  • Major banks including JPMorgan (JPM), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all "demolished" their earnings reports, beating on both revenue and EPS.
  • Despite the strong earnings, most of their stocks were flat or down due to the negative macro sentiment from the China news. Wells Fargo (WFC) was the exception, trading up 3.8%.
  • The host views the strong performance of legacy banks as a bullish signal for fintech companies like SoFi (SOFI), suggesting if they are doing well, a faster-growing company like SoFi should also perform well.

Takeaways

  • The underlying business of major financial institutions appears to be very strong, which is a positive sign for the health of the broader economy.
  • This is a "buy the news" opportunity for investors who believe the market is unfairly punishing these stocks due to macro fears. The strong fundamentals may prevail once the geopolitical noise subsides.
  • Wells Fargo appears to be the market's favorite of the group based on its positive price reaction.

Rare Earth & Nuclear Stocks (MP, OKLO, etc.)

  • Due to China's export controls on rare earths, domestic rare earth and nuclear stocks were acting as "safety" plays.
  • MP Materials (MP) was up 6% in the pre-market after being up 21% the previous day.
  • Energy Fuels (UUUU) was up 14% in the pre-market after being up 16% the previous day.
  • Oklo (OKLO), a nuclear company, was up 16% the previous day and was mentioned as a stock generating significant FOMO. It hit a new all-time high during the podcast.
  • The host's logic: "If China is not going to be as friendly when it comes to exports on rare earths, you're going to have to imagine more demand goes through domestic manufacturing."

Takeaways

  • These sectors are direct beneficiaries of the current geopolitical tensions with China.
  • They are highly speculative and have experienced massive price increases. Investing in them is a high-risk, high-reward proposition based on a specific geopolitical narrative.
  • The host mentions a potential catalyst for Oklo would be a partnership with OpenAI to power their data centers, but this is pure speculation.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - China 10:11 - Bank 20:00 - Dealing with Fomo 27:08 - PLTR 44:00 - Market Open 1:01:49 - Larry Fink Speaks 2:49:00 - Greer Speaks
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!