BROADCOM AND CROWDSTRIKE GET HIT, BITCOIN BELOW 64K | MARKET OPEN
BROADCOM AND CROWDSTRIKE GET HIT, BITCOIN BELOW 64K | MARKET OPEN
19 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The recent 15% sell-off in Broadcom (AVGO) presents a high-conviction "buy the dip" opportunity as AI semiconductor revenue is projected to re-accelerate by over 200% next quarter. Investors should look to "nibble" on Bitcoin (BTC) at the critical $61,000 support level, though caution is advised as it remains highly correlated with downward trends in the Nasdaq. Consider rotating capital out of volatile semiconductor names like AMD and MU into "quality compounders" such as Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL), which are acting as the market's new safe havens. Palantir (PLTR) remains a top bullish pick following strong partnership expansions, while Reddit (RDDT) is emerging as a preferred software-based alternative to hardware trades. Finally, monitor Robinhood (HOOD) as the removal of the Pattern Day Trading rule is expected to significantly boost retail trading volumes and platform assets.

Detailed Analysis

Broadcom (AVGO)

• The stock fell 15% following earnings, despite revenue being up 48% ($22.1 billion) and EPS up 54% year-over-year. • AI semiconductor revenue grew 143% year-over-year, with guidance suggesting a re-acceleration to over 200% growth ($16 billion) in Q3. • The sell-off was attributed to "sandbagged" guidance and a slight miss in software revenue and gross margins. • CEO Hock Tan noted that Google is diversifying its TPU supply away from Broadcom, though a massive partnership with OpenAI is expected to go live in 2027.

Takeaways

Investment Opportunity: The 15% drop is viewed as an overreaction and a potential "buy the dip" opportunity, as the core AI infrastructure business remains exceptionally strong. • Valuation Check: The market is showing "sobriety" regarding high multiples; even strong numbers are being punished if they aren't "NVIDIA-perfect."


CrowdStrike (CRWD)

• Stock dropped approximately 9-10% after earnings. • Revenue growth was 26%, which the analyst noted may not justify its high valuation multiple compared to peers like Palantir (PLTR). • The company announced a 4-for-1 stock split. • Management raised full-year Net New Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth expectations to 27.7%.

Takeaways

Sentiment: Bearish in the short term. The stock was considered "overextended" at recent highs, and the market is waiting for deeper revenue growth to justify the price. • Sector Insight: Cybersecurity remains a critical "AI inflection point," but execution must match the high premium of the stock.


Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin fell below the $64,000 level, testing a critical two-year support line at $61,000. • Unlike previous cycles, "altcoins" (smaller cryptocurrencies) are holding up better than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. • MicroStrategy (MSTR) is facing pressure as Bitcoin drops, potentially impacting its ability to support yields on its Bitcoin-backed funds.

Takeaways

Actionable Level: The $61,000 mark is identified as the "nibble" zone for long-term believers. • Risk Factor: Bitcoin remains highly correlated to the Nasdaq on the downside; if tech stocks continue to cool off, Bitcoin is expected to follow.


SpaceX (SPCX - IPO/Secondary)

• SpaceX is reportedly looking to raise funds at a $135/share price point, implying a valuation near $200 billion (though the analyst mentions figures up to $1.75 trillion in private markets). • Shares are becoming available to retail investors via platforms like Robinhood.

Takeaways

Risk Factor: High valuation concerns. The analyst warns that institutional investors have had years to buy private shares; a sudden push to retail could be a "red flag" regarding demand. • Theme: The "Space Economy" is gaining momentum, acting as a catalyst for other names like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Redwire (RDW).


Investment Themes & Sector Insights

Semiconductors (Semis)

Sentiment: Bearish/Cooling off. Major names like Micron (MU), AMD, and Marvell (MRVL) saw significant selling pressure. • Insight: TSMC warned that chip supply will fall short of AI demand for years. This "compute constraint" prevents a bubble by stopping an overbuild of hardware.

"Big Tech" as the New Safe Haven

Theme: Investors are rotating out of volatile semiconductors into "Quality Compounders" like Meta (META), Google (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT). • Insight: Bill Ackman’s thesis suggests these companies are the "Berkshires of 2000"—durable businesses being ignored in favor of the "new shiny thing" (chips).

Robinhood (HOOD) & Regulatory Changes

News: The Pattern Day Trading (PDT) rule has been removed for many users, allowing accounts with less than $25,000 to day trade freely. • Insight: This is expected to drive significant incremental volume and "AUM" (Assets Under Management) for retail-focused brokerages.


Other Assets Mentioned

Palantir (PLTR): Bullish sentiment due to "AIP Con" announcements and partnerships with Hertz, Google, and Kirkland. • Hims & Hers (HIMS): Showing resilience and moving toward the $30 level. • Reddit (RDT): Gaining "rotation" interest as a software play, up 4-5% while semis fell. • Quantinuum (QNT): A Honeywell spin-off IPO in the Quantum computing space to watch.

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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!