Breaking Down Rapper 24kGoldn's Portfolio
Breaking Down Rapper 24kGoldn's Portfolio
151 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube1 hr 56 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying dips in NVIDIA (NVDA), as increased AI accessibility is expected to drive higher chip demand, not decrease it. Google (GOOGL) is a long-term AI investment due to its data advantage, with recent accumulation around the $130s presenting a solid entry point. Robinhood (HOOD) is a high-conviction fintech play on user experience with potential to double, with aggressive buying noted between $7 and $11.70. For direct exposure to the growing consumer health and wellness trend, consider Hims & Hers (HIMS). A simple strategy for cryptocurrency is to dollar-cost average by buying a set amount of Bitcoin (BTC) daily.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • 24kGoldn first bought NVIDIA around 2017-2018 on a recommendation from his dad, who believed computers would become increasingly important.
  • His average cost basis is now $94 per share.
  • He added "a shit ton more" to his position when the stock dipped to the $90s, viewing the market's reaction to things like DeepSeek (which makes running AI models cheaper) as an overreaction.
  • Thesis: He believes that making AI more accessible and cheaper will increase the demand for NVIDIA's chips, not decrease it.
  • He is not concerned about a potential "AI bubble" bursting. He compares it to the dot-com bubble, noting that even though many companies failed, the internet still revolutionized the world. He believes NVIDIA is a quality company with a great leader in Jensen Huang.

Takeaways

  • The long-term thesis for NVIDIA is tied to the continued growth and adoption of AI across all sectors.
  • Dips in price, even based on news that seems negative (like cheaper AI models), can be seen as buying opportunities if you believe in the long-term demand story.
  • Leadership is a key factor; faith in CEO Jensen Huang provides confidence to hold the stock.

Google (GOOGL)

  • He first bought Google in middle or high school simply because he was a user of YouTube and Google Search.
  • He added a significant amount to his position in 2024 around the $130s.
  • Thesis: His conviction grew as he understood the company's assets. He believes Google's massive dataset gives it a significant advantage in AI. The potential for a personalized AI assistant that knows everything about you is a huge opportunity. He also cited their ownership of companies like Waymo.
  • He remained confident even when the stock was stagnant and other tech stocks like Meta were soaring, focusing on his long-term time horizon of 10-30 years.

Takeaways

  • Google is viewed as a long-term AI play due to its unparalleled access to user data, which is crucial for training effective AI models.
  • The stock's period of underperformance was seen as an opportunity to accumulate shares in a high-quality company at a reasonable price.
  • Investing in companies whose products you use and understand can be a powerful starting point, which can then be deepened with more fundamental research.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • He first bought Robinhood at its IPO around $10-$13 but sold during the GameStop backlash due to uncertainty.
  • He began buying back in around the time he did a podcast with CEO Vlad Tenev. His cost basis is now $9.70 (the transcript has a typo saying $97, but context implies a lower number). He was buying aggressively from the $7s up to $11.70.
  • Thesis: The investment is based on personal user experience and network effects. He and all his friends use Robinhood because its user interface is far superior to legacy brokerages like Schwab or Vanguard.
  • He believes the platform is the clear choice for younger generations who will inherit wealth from baby boomers.
  • He is impressed by recent innovations like the credit card and tokenization. He sees significant upside from its current market cap, suggesting it could "at least double."

Takeaways

  • Robinhood is considered a strong fintech play based on its superior user experience and brand recognition with younger investors.
  • The company's potential for growth is not just in the US but also through international expansion, as seen with its acquisition of a brokerage in Indonesia.
  • Investing in a company whose product you prefer over its competitors can be a strong investment thesis ("invest in what you know").

Hims & Hers (HIMS)

  • This was a stock he was put onto by the podcast host.
  • Thesis: The investment is a play on major health and wellness trends, including the "Ozempic revolution" for weight loss and the general "looksmaxing" trend among younger generations.
  • He sees HIMS as the easiest and most accessible platform for consumers to get these products.
  • He believes there is massive growth potential if they expand their catalog to include things like peptides.

Takeaways

  • HIMS is positioned to capitalize on the growing consumer demand for accessible treatments related to weight loss, hair loss, and other lifestyle health concerns.
  • The company's direct-to-consumer model is a key advantage, making it a go-to platform for a generation comfortable with online services.
  • Future growth could be driven by the expansion into new product categories like peptides.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • He was an early investor, buying in around 2017-2018 before Full Self-Driving (FSD) was a major narrative.
  • Thesis: His initial interest came from seeing the original Tesla Roadster at an auto show and being impressed by the design. His long-term belief is in Elon Musk's ambition to "push the shit forward."
  • He sees massive potential in the Robo-Taxi network and the Optimus robot. He believes a $20,000 robot that can perform household chores better or faster than a human would be a revolutionary product, making the cost a "drop in the bucket" compared to a full-time housekeeper.
  • He would "a thousand percent" buy the Robo-Taxi (CyberCab) when it comes out and would even purchase a small fleet to generate passive income.

Takeaways

  • An investment in Tesla is largely a bet on Elon Musk's vision and the company's ability to solve major technological challenges in AI, robotics, and autonomous driving.
  • The bull case extends far beyond cars, with the Optimus robot and the Robo-Taxi network representing potential S-curves for growth that could dwarf the car business.
  • The high valuation is justified by the market's expectation that this future growth will materialize.

Costco (COST)

  • He bought the stock in 2019 when it was around $300 per share.
  • Thesis: The idea came from a USC business class trip to Japan where he met with a Costco Japan executive. He learned about the company's massive, successful expansion in Asia (China, Korea, Japan), with thousands of people lining up for new store openings.
  • He views Costco as a "backbone" safety stock that will do well even in a recession.
  • He feels it's one of the only retailers that people genuinely enjoy going to.

Takeaways

  • Costco's investment case is not just domestic but is strongly supported by its successful and ongoing international expansion, particularly in Asia.
  • The company has a strong brand and loyal customer base, making it a resilient business during economic downturns.
  • Despite its high P/E ratio (trading higher than NVIDIA), it is seen as a reliable, long-term holding.

Oklo (OKLO)

  • He bought the stock for $10 per share.
  • The host mentioned a friend who recommended it at $5 per share.
  • This was his "best pick ever," having seen a return of 22x at one point (from $10 to a peak around $190, though the transcript seems to have a typo here, likely meaning $19.0).
  • He has taken some profits off the table due to the massive run-up.

Takeaways

  • Oklo, a nuclear energy company, represents a high-risk, high-reward play that has delivered massive returns for early investors.
  • Taking profits on a position that has increased dramatically (e.g., 22x) is a prudent strategy to de-risk and lock in gains.

Portfolio Strategy & Top 10 Holdings

  • 24kGoldn's portfolio contains over 100 individual stocks, which he attributes to 15 years of investing and a fear of selling a winner too early (like his Dogecoin experience).
  • The host and chat advised him to consolidate his portfolio significantly, suggesting he sell everything with under $1,000 or even $10,000 and focus on high-conviction ideas.
  • When forced to condense his portfolio to just 10 holdings, he chose the following:
    1. VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) - His core safety holding.
    2. NVIDIA (NVDA)
    3. Google (GOOGL)
    4. Robinhood (HOOD)
    5. Oklo (OKLO)
    6. Tesla (TSLA)
    7. Microsoft (MSFT)
    8. Hims & Hers (HIMS)
    9. Costco (COST)
    10. Amazon (AMZN)

Takeaways

  • Holding too many positions ("commitment issues") can lead to "dead weight" and dilute the returns from your best ideas. It's difficult to track and maintain conviction in 100+ companies.
  • A concentrated portfolio of 10-15 high-conviction stocks, anchored by a broad market ETF like VTI, can be a more effective strategy for growth.
  • The recommended checklist for keeping a stock includes:
    • Do you want to hold it for a decade?
    • Does it have a massive Total Addressable Market (TAM)?
    • Do you trust the management?
    • Do you truly understand what the business does and why it's winning?

Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, ZEC, DOGE)

  • Bitcoin (BTC): He buys $50 of Bitcoin every single day. He first got into it in 2015/2016 as a miner but was forced to liquidate. He has been buying a lot in 2024 and believes in the thesis.
  • Ethereum (ETH): He holds ETH but expressed frustration with its stagnant performance, calling it the "most stagnant fucking thing" in his crypto portfolio. He believes its utility hasn't reached peak awareness yet.
  • Zcash (ZEC): He bought it after seeing a tweet about it, and his position has tripled. He understands the narrative is "Bitcoin but private."
  • Dogecoin (DOGE): He holds a massive regret here. He put a small amount of money in at a "fraction of a fraction of a cent" and sold it out of boredom. He calculates that if he had held, it would have been worth $250,000 at its peak. This experience is a key reason why he now hesitates to sell positions completely.

Takeaways

  • A Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy (e.g., buying $50 of BTC daily) is a simple way to build a position over time without trying to time the market.
  • The fear of missing out (FOMO) from selling a huge winner early can lead to poor portfolio management, such as holding onto too many small, speculative positions.
  • While Bitcoin is seen as a primary holding, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are viewed with more skepticism until their use cases become more mainstream and drive price action.

The Business of Music & Investing

  • Record Deals: A standard deal is often an 80/20 split, where the label takes 80% of the revenue. An artist who gets a $1 million advance must generate $5 million in revenue for the label just to break even and start earning royalties. This is described as a "horrible deal" compared to VC funding.
  • Revenue Streams: Because of this structure, artists often don't expect to make money from the actual record sales initially. The real money comes from:
    • Touring: Festivals and private shows are very lucrative. Arena tours are where the big money is, while smaller venue tours might only break even.
    • Merchandise: Selling merch at shows is a major source of direct income.
    • Publishing Deals: This is a separate revenue stream from the record deal.
    • Catalog Sales: In the long run, artists can sell their master recordings or publishing rights for large sums, as seen with Justin Bieber ($200 million) and Future ($80 million).
  • Spotify (SPOT): He does not own Spotify stock. He believes subscriber growth is nearing a plateau in valuable markets, and much of the future growth will come from lower-paying regions like India, making the upside less attractive.

Takeaways

  • The music industry's structure highlights the importance of diversifying income streams. The music itself acts as a distribution and marketing tool to fuel more lucrative ventures like touring and merch.
  • Long-term ownership of assets (like music masters) is key. An artist's catalog is an appreciating asset that can lead to a massive "exit" down the line.
  • When analyzing a company like Spotify, it's important to consider not just user growth, but the quality of that growth (i.e., Average Revenue Per User).
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 24kgoldn: https://x.com/24kGoldn
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!