AUGUST NON FARM PAYROLLS REPORT,  OIL DOWN, CAN STOCKS CONTINUE MOMENTUM | MARKET OPEN
AUGUST NON FARM PAYROLLS REPORT, OIL DOWN, CAN STOCKS CONTINUE MOMENTUM | MARKET OPEN
20 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

In the semiconductor sector, monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) for a breakout above key resistance at $235–$236.50, while Micron Technology (MU) presents a high-momentum setup as it tests the psychological $1,000 level ahead of earnings on September 23.

Alphabet (GOOGL) offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors as shares trade slightly below Berkshire Hathaway's recent $10 billion institutional purchase price.

Keep a close watch on Apple (AAPL) ahead of its September 9 event, where the anticipated reveal of a $2,000–$2,200 foldable device could provide a strong near-term catalyst.

With 10-Year Treasury yields spiking near 4.80%, expect continued volatility across the S&P 500 (SPY), especially within rate-sensitive high-beta tech and fintech assets.

Conversely, avoid dip-buying Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) and Lululemon (LULU), as severe regulatory disruption and steep sales declines create elevated downside risk.

Detailed Analysis

U.S. Broad Market & Macro Economy (SPY)

  • The August Non-Farm Payrolls report significantly beat expectations, adding 162,000 jobs versus estimates (a 56,000 beat), while July jobs were revised upward by 23,000.
  • The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while wage growth remained relatively tame at 3.1% year-over-year.
  • The 10-Year Treasury yield spiked to around 4.78%–4.80%, reflecting market expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer.
  • Probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September increased from roughly 48%–50% up to 60%–61% following the strong labor print.
  • Crude Oil traded lower around $90.39, remaining at elevated levels but showing slight relief from prior peaks near $95.

Takeaways

  • Strong economic and labor data reduces the near-term likelihood of Fed rate cuts, keeping upward pressure on bond yields.
  • Investors should expect continued volatility in rate-sensitive sectors like high-beta tech, crypto, and fintech while the market digests elevated interest rate expectations.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Shares fell 3% to 6% to around $352–$360 following the Austin, Texas CyberCab robotaxi event.
  • The event announced that 45 CyberCabs are currently operating in Texas, but lacked major new announcements such as a general-public purchasing option for a $30,000 vehicle, flying vehicle demos, or major Optimus robot updates.
  • The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a safety and compliance probe into the CyberCab design and certification process, introducing regulatory risk.
  • Concerns were raised regarding the timeline for autonomous vehicle adoption, including driver pushback, municipal regulations, and ride-hailing union resistance.

Takeaways

  • The market viewed the robotaxi event as a "sell-the-news" catalyst due to elevated expectations and minimal new near-term financial drivers.
  • Meaningful robotaxi monetization remains a long-term story facing substantial regulatory, legal, and operational hurdles before scaling nationwide.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVDA surged toward $232–$234, approaching its 52-week high near $236.54.
  • Significant order-book resistance sits at the $235 level with over 648,000 shares queued for sale.
  • Positive sentiment was fueled by analyst price target upgrades and newly showcased AI model capabilities (such as OpenAI's GPT-6 demonstration), which highlight expanding compute demand.
  • The stock continues to benefit from major hyperscaler and AI lab capital expenditure.

Takeaways

  • NVDA remains the primary market leader in the AI infrastructure buildout, showing relative strength while software and fintech sectors take a breather.
  • Monitor price action closely around the $235–$236.50 resistance zone for potential breakout confirmation.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • MU shares rallied to challenge the key psychological level of $1,000.
  • UBS research highlighted strong potential long-term forward earnings, forecasting significant cash generation through fiscal year 2028.
  • Micron is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on September 23.

Takeaways

  • Memory and photonics stocks are catching momentum alongside the broader semiconductor rebound.
  • Breaking and holding above $1,000 will be a crucial technical signal ahead of the upcoming late-September earnings release.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

  • Shares plummeted 17% to 19%, dropping below $100.
  • The company missed Q2 estimates with revenue of $2.40 billion versus $2.46 billion expected and earnings per share of $9.73 versus $10.88 expected.
  • Management significantly reduced full-year guidance to $10.5 billion (from $11.04 billion expected), with core legging sales falling approximately 20%.
  • Michael Burry stated on his Substack that LULU is his largest position and indicated that he is buying more shares despite the decline.

Takeaways

  • LULU faces severe headwinds from slowing consumer discretionary spending and brand momentum deceleration.
  • Despite value-seeking contrarian interest, the lowered guidance and double-digit sales drops in core products warrant caution until revenue stabilizes.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

  • Shares fell 14% to 20% intraday following significant regulatory disruption.
  • The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to allow approved mortgage lenders to use VantageScore, dismantling FICO’s exclusive stronghold in mortgage credit scoring.

Takeaways

  • The loss of exclusivity in mortgage underwriting poses a major structural threat to FICO's long-standing pricing power and moat.
  • Expect heightened volatility as the market re-evaluates the company's long-term market share in credit scoring.

Alphabet (GOOGL)

  • Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $10 billion block purchase in GOOGL negotiated at an approximate 6.5% discount to market prices.
  • Greg Abel cited Berkshire portfolio companies' internal visibility into AI and search benefits as the primary investment rationale.
  • The stock traded down slightly around 0.5%–2%, sitting below Berkshire's recent purchase level.

Takeaways

  • Long-term institutional backing from Berkshire provides a vote of confidence in GOOGL's valuation and enterprise AI positioning despite short-term stock consolidation.

Apple (AAPL)

  • AAPL is hosting an upcoming product launch event on September 9.
  • Citigroup published a preview expecting Apple to unveil its first foldable iPhone priced between $2,000 and $2,200, projecting 7.5 million units sold in the next year.

Takeaways

  • A premium foldable device could provide an incremental average selling price (ASP) boost, but broad consumer adoption at a $2,000+ price point remains unproven.
  • Investors will be watching for new hardware catalysts and AI service subscription monetization to sustain growth.

UiPath (PATH)

  • Shares dropped 10% to 20% post-earnings despite beating revenue and EPS estimates and raising full-year guidance.
  • Investor sentiment remains weighed down by concerns that AI agents and large language models will commoditize traditional robotic process automation (RPA).

Takeaways

  • Strong quarterly results were overshadowed by long-term existential narrative risks around AI disruption.
  • Software companies exposed to AI automation disruption may experience multiple compression regardless of short-term earnings beats.

S&P 500 Index Rebalancing Candidates (ALAB, BE, SOFI)

  • Speculation surrounded the quarterly S&P 500 inclusion announcements scheduled for the market close.
  • Astera Labs (ALAB) rallied 10% to 11% and Bloom Energy (BE) gained over 4% on inclusion anticipation.
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) pulled back 3% to below $18, facing uncertainty over whether the index committee will add non-traditional fintech banking institutions.

Takeaways

  • S&P 500 inclusion events create sharp short-term momentum and options volatility due to mandatory buying by passive index-tracking funds.
  • Options traders holding covered calls or short strikes into index announcements face heightened assignment risk during extended trading hours.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!