ASML CRUSHES, POWELL SPEAKS TODAY, BIG TECH EARNINGS START | MARKET OPEN
ASML CRUSHES, POWELL SPEAKS TODAY, BIG TECH EARNINGS START | MARKET OPEN
101 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The AI-driven data center build-out is a powerful theme, with companies like Seagate (STX) reporting they are booked out with guaranteed demand until the end of 2027. As a direct play on this trend, consider memory chip maker Micron (MU), which benefits from the same demand driving its peers. For exposure to the explosive growth of private AI leader Anthropic, investors can buy shares of Amazon (AMZN), which owns a significant 20% stake in the company. With a weakening U.S. Dollar boosting hard assets, consider Copper as a potential catch-up trade that benefits from massive supply shortages. For a higher-risk opportunity, Intel (INTC) could see a major turnaround if rumors of a manufacturing partnership with NVIDIA are confirmed.

Detailed Analysis

ASML Holding (ASML)

  • The company reported a very strong fourth quarter, with the host noting they "absolutely crushed it."
    • Revenue: Came in at €9.72 billion, beating expectations of €9.57 billion.
    • Bookings: Were the standout metric at €13.16 billion, nearly double the €6.85 billion that was expected. This massive beat signals extremely strong future demand.
    • Guidance: The company guided for revenue between €34 billion to €39 billion, with the midpoint above the €35 billion estimate.
  • A new €12 billion share buyback program was announced, set to run through 2028.
  • The stock was up as much as 8% in the pre-market following the news, though it faded later in the session.
  • The host views the strong bookings as proof of ASML's "moat around lithography" and a sign of almost "unlimited demand."

Takeaways

  • ASML's results are a strong bullish indicator for the entire semiconductor sector, including companies like NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO).
  • The massive beat on future orders (bookings) suggests that the global build-out of AI infrastructure is not slowing down and may even be accelerating.
  • Despite the stock's strong performance, the announced share buyback provides a long-term support mechanism for the share price.

The Memory & Data Center Ecosystem (STX, MU, SK Hynix, INTC)

  • There is a clear theme of a "data center build-out super cycle" with seemingly "unlimited demand" for memory chips like HBM and DRAM, driven by AI.
  • Seagate Technologies (STX): "Crushed earnings" and saw its stock jump 8.5%. The most important comment from their call was that they are "booked out until the end of 2027," indicating a long runway of guaranteed demand.
  • SK Hynix: Also "absolutely crushed" its earnings, with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue more than doubling year-over-year. For the first time in seven years, its operating margins were better than Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSM).
  • Micron (MU): The stock was up over 3% in direct reaction to the strong reports from its peers, Seagate and SK Hynix. The host notes that even after a 40% run-up this year, the stock trades at a reasonable 15 forward P/E.
  • Intel (INTC): The stock jumped over 9% on rumors that NVIDIA will start using its foundries (fabs) for chip manufacturing in 2028. This would be a massive win for Intel's struggling foundry business and is seen as a politically savvy move for NVIDIA to onshore manufacturing. An Intel CFO also recently purchased 4,000 shares, the first insider buy since 2024.

Takeaways

  • The earnings reports from across the memory and storage sector confirm that the AI-driven demand is real and durable. Companies are reporting being sold out for years to come.
  • Investors looking for exposure to this theme could look at memory makers like Micron (MU) or data storage companies like Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC).
  • The rumor of an Intel-NVIDIA partnership is a significant potential catalyst for Intel (INTC). If confirmed, it could signal a major turnaround for its manufacturing business.

Anthropic (Private Company / AMZN Proxy)

  • The AI company is seeing explosive growth and incredible investor demand in the private markets.
  • Revenue Growth: Projected to grow from $100 million in 2023 to $55 billion in 2026. This represents a nearly 300% increase from 2025 to 2026.
  • Valuation: A recent private funding round at a $350 billion valuation was oversubscribed by 2x in just 90 minutes, showing intense demand. The host argues that at this valuation, the company is "not expensive" given its growth trajectory.
  • Market Position: The host believes Anthropic is "running away with the LLM wars" and has a stronger position in the valuable enterprise market compared to OpenAI.
  • Public Market Proxy: The best way for public investors to get exposure to Anthropic's success is through Amazon (AMZN), which owns a 20% stake in the company.

Takeaways

  • Anthropic's staggering growth figures provide strong evidence for the massive economic scale of the AI revolution.
  • For investors who cannot access private markets, Amazon (AMZN) is presented as a "coiled spring" and the primary vehicle to benefit from Anthropic's potential future IPO and growth. The value of this stake is not yet fully reflected in Amazon's share price.

OpenAI (Private Company)

  • SoftBank is reportedly looking to invest another $30 billion into the company, which is seeking a new funding round that could value it at $830 billion.
  • The host and other commentators expressed skepticism about this high valuation, especially compared to the faster-growing Anthropic.
  • Investor Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital, a major OpenAI investor, defended the company. He revealed a key insight: he believes CEO Sam Altman "cajoled" the market into a massive data center build-out by signaling huge spending plans, allowing OpenAI to benefit from the new infrastructure without having to spend the capital themselves.
  • Gerstner also stated that the next funding round will likely be the "last round of private financing ahead of their IPO," which he expects in the next 12 to 18 months.

Takeaways

  • The valuation of OpenAI is a point of contention. The high price tag and questions about its enterprise strategy relative to Anthropic present risks.
  • The "cajoling" strategy, if true, is a double-edged sword. It may be a brilliant capital-light business model, but it also means that companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO), who were expecting massive contracts from OpenAI, may not see that revenue materialize.
  • An IPO seems to be on the horizon within 1.5 years, which will be a major market event.

Gold, Silver, and Copper (Commodities)

  • A strong bullish sentiment surrounds precious metals, driven primarily by a weakening U.S. Dollar.
  • Gold: Hit a new high of $5,200 (based on the host's chart) and is seen as having further to run.
  • Silver: Rallied 7% and is approaching its recent all-time highs. An analyst from Citi sees a path to $150/ounce.
  • Catalyst: Former President Trump's comments indicating he is "fine with a weak dollar" are seen as a major tailwind. A weak dollar makes hard assets priced in dollars, like gold and silver, more valuable.
  • Copper: The host presents a bullish thesis that copper has lagged gold and silver but is poised for an "asymmetric bet" due to a "massive supply shortage" coming from data center construction and grid upgrades. It's viewed as a trade that investors are still early on.

Takeaways

  • The macro trend of a weakening U.S. dollar, supported by political rhetoric, is creating a powerful tailwind for hard assets.
  • Investors bullish on this theme could consider exposure to Gold and Silver.
  • Copper is presented as a potential catch-up trade that is fundamentally supported by the AI and electrification themes, suggesting it may have more upside than precious metals that have already run significantly.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock was down on the day, and the host addressed its recent sluggish performance.
  • Valuation: The primary point is that after a 30x run from its lows, the stock's high valuation (mentioned as 100x sales) needs time to consolidate and be justified by earnings growth.
  • Investor Sentiment: The host suggests that investors who bought at much lower prices should be "grateful" it's holding its current levels. He cautions against being "super greedy" and expecting a continued parabolic run in the short term.
  • Earnings: The host expects a "really good earnings" report on Monday but warns that a positive report doesn't guarantee a positive stock reaction, as high expectations are already priced in.

Takeaways

  • Palantir is in a consolidation phase. The stock's future performance depends on its ability to grow into its high valuation.
  • While the long-term story may be intact, new investors should be aware that the easy money has likely been made, and patience will be required. The upcoming earnings report will be a critical test of whether its growth can justify the premium multiple.

Other Key Mentions

  • Amazon (AMZN): Besides being an Anthropic proxy, the company is seen as a "coiled spring." Bullish catalysts include accelerating AWS growth and recent layoffs of 16,000 employees, which will improve operating margins and profitability.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) & Meta (META): Both have critical earnings reports today. For Microsoft, the focus is on the monetization of its AI Copilot. For Meta, the key is CEO Mark Zuckerberg's ability to justify the company's massive AI spending on the earnings call. An analyst upgraded Meta to $870.
  • PayPal (PYPL): The stock received another downgrade, this time from Bernstein, who cut the price target to $50 with a "Sell" rating. The host's advice was to "not touch it" due to poor sentiment and business headwinds.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH): The host advises staying away from UNH and the broader healthcare sector. The stock's volatility and the political overhang from the Trump administration's focus on "affordability" create significant risk.
  • Palladian AI Corp (PDYN): A small-cap AI/defense stock that jumped 44% after winning a U.S. Air Force contract, highlighting the potential for explosive moves in smaller companies that secure major deals.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!