ANOTHER OPENAI EXEC LEAVES, ZOOM & INTUIT EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
ANOTHER OPENAI EXEC LEAVES, ZOOM & INTUIT EARNINGS, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE
12 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Buy Broadcom (AVGO) in the $340 to $355 support range for a rebound toward $400+, using a strict stop-loss if it breaks below $340.

Capitalize on the AI data center energy theme by initiating positions in Vistra Corp (VST) with a price target of $185, or buying Talen Energy (TLN) on pullbacks near key support at $300.

In the cryptocurrency market, avoid chasing current rallies and instead accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) on dips into the $70,000 to $75,000 zone targeting $90,000+, while looking for Ethereum (ETH) entries near $2,500 targeting $3,200.

For large-cap tech momentum, maintain long positions in Uber Technologies (UBER) above $80 targeting $85 to $90, and enter Meta Platforms (META) on a breakout above $575 targeting $600.

Take advantage of falling energy prices by buying American Airlines (AAL) near $14.00 as an inverse play on crude oil, targeting an upside move between $16.50 and $18.50.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVDA was discussed ahead of its upcoming earnings report, with the options market pricing in an expected move of 5.5% compared to its historical average move of 6.47%.
  • Key technical levels include support between $208.96 and $213, with downside risk to $200 on a negative reaction, and resistance at $225.
  • Statistically, over the last 24 months (8 quarters), NVDA has moved more than 5.5% on earnings only twice, suggesting low probability for extreme directional breakout plays.

Takeaways

  • Directional option buying into earnings carries an unfavorable risk/reward; a range-bound options strategy (such as selling $225 calls and $200 puts) is favored by the analysts to capture premium within the expected $200 to $225 range.
  • Pullbacks toward the $200 support level represent attractive re-entry points for long-term buyers.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin rallied roughly 25% off its recent lows but is encountering heavy psychological and technical resistance around $80,000.
  • A healthy consolidation or pullback into the $70,000 to $75,000 range (the 50% retracement level) would be constructive for building a base before attempting to break higher.
  • If BTC can establish support above $80,000, the next major overhead resistance targets are in the $90,000 to $100,000+ zone.

Takeaways

  • Avoid chasing the current rally directly into the $80,000 resistance area.
  • Look to accumulate on dips toward the $70,000 to $75,000 support zone ahead of anticipated strength in late Q3 and Q4.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • ETH has broken above its prior pivot of $2,150 and is testing resistance just below $3,000.
  • Technical Fibonacci retracement targets for the current move sit at $3,200 and $3,650.
  • The overall chart structure is showing higher relative percentage beta compared to Bitcoin, with support forming around $2,500.

Takeaways

  • Maintain long exposure while watching for dip-buying opportunities near $2,500.
  • Prepare for resistance near $3,000, with secondary profit targets at $3,200 and $3,650.

S&P 500 Index (SPY)

  • The broad market is currently in a "break and base" consolidation phase following a breakout from a 9-to-10-week range.
  • Key technical support is established between 750 and 755, while resistance sits between 770 and 775.
  • A sustained move above 775 opens a clear technical path toward 800, while major upcoming macro catalysts (Core PCE, GDP, Jackson Hole, and Non-Farm Payroll revisions) will drive near-term direction.

Takeaways

  • The index remains structurally bullish as long as it holds above the 750755 support band.
  • Range-bound strategies (such as iron condors) are favored in the very short term until macro events resolve and trigger a directional breakout.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • AVGO pulled back toward $355.88, sitting directly on a critical high-volume support shelf between $340 and $355.
  • Sentiment has been pressured by a recent $70 billion bond offering, a sell-side downgrade, and competitive announcements regarding custom ASICs versus Nvidia's Blackwell chips.
  • The $340 level serves as a strict line in the sand; holding this zone offers an upside target back to $400+.

Takeaways

  • The risk/reward profile is attractive for a long position in the $340 to $355 zone.
  • Use a breakdown below $340 as a strict stop-loss level.

Vistra Corp (VST)

  • VST represents a value-oriented play on the AI data center power and energy bottleneck thesis.
  • The stock is down approximately 20% year-to-date, trading at a compelling valuation of roughly 9x EBITDA on an estimated $8 billion EBITDA base, supporting a price target of $185.
  • Notable smart-money backing includes insider buying by the CEO, an added 10% stake by David Tepper (positioning at roughly $350 million), and a $59 million position added by Peter Thiel.

Takeaways

  • Consider initiating a starter position in VST for exposure to data center power demand and ongoing share buyback programs, targeting a move toward $185.

Talen Energy (TLN) & Constellation Energy (CEG)

  • Both TLN and CEG are nuclear and natural gas power providers benefiting directly from long-term hyperscaler data center contracts (e.g., Talen with Amazon; Constellation with Microsoft).
  • TLN is trading around technical support near $300, presenting a historical dip-buying opportunity.
  • Natural gas currently powers over 40% of data centers, making infrastructure and behind-the-meter generation critical as the grid bottleneck persists.

Takeaways

  • Buy TLN on pullbacks as close to $300 as possible, utilizing a stop-loss slightly below that level.
  • Treat energy providers with contracted hyperscaler demand as essential long-term infrastructure holdings within the AI trade.

American Airlines (AAL)

  • AAL was purchased as an inverse play on falling crude oil prices, catalyzed by easing Middle East geopolitical tensions and potential ceasefire negotiations.
  • AAL displays a more direct inverse correlation to oil prices than competitors like Delta (DAL), because Delta owns its own refinery and has outperformed year-to-date.
  • Falling crude oil toward the $65$75 range historically supported AAL trading between $16.50 and $18.50 (up from current levels near $14.00).

Takeaways

  • AAL provides a high-beta trade opportunity to capitalize on falling energy prices and lowering bond yields, with an initial price target range of $16.50 to $18.50.

Intuit (INTU)

  • INTU suffered an immediate 8% to 14% sell-off in after-hours trading following earnings, despite beating Q4 revenue ($4.35B vs. $4.27B) and EPS ($4.03 vs. $3.59).
  • The drop was triggered by weak forward guidance: full-year 2027 adjusted operating income was guided to $8.15 billion (vs. $10 billion consensus), and Q1 EPS guidance of $1.34 trailed the $3.58 consensus.
  • The large guidance discrepancy was suspected to be related to the inclusion of stock-based compensation (SBC) in estimates or one-off tax adjustments rather than core business deterioration.

Takeaways

  • Wait for clarity from the earnings call regarding the operating income guidance and tax structure before entering.
  • If the sell-off proves to be an accounting/SBC adjustment overreaction, look for a mean-reversion buying opportunity given core revenue growth remains steady at 14%.

Zoom Video Communications (ZM)

  • ZM traded down 2% to 4% post-earnings after delivering modest growth (revenue up 5% year-over-year to $1.27 billion; EPS at $1.55 vs. $1.48 expected).
  • Full-year revenue outlook was in-line at $5.1 billion with free cash flow guided at $1.82 billion, placing the stock at roughly 17x adjusted free cash flow.
  • A key catalyst remains Zoom's early minority equity investment in Anthropic, which could provide significant asset value upon Anthropic's eventual IPO.

Takeaways

  • ZM is not a high-conviction top-line growth stock, but its low free cash flow multiple and Anthropic balance-sheet asset provide valuation support. Treat primarily as a value/cash-flow hold.

Semtech (SMTC)

  • SMTC reported a strong double beat: EPS of $0.71 vs. $0.61 expected (up 73% year-over-year) and revenue of $341 million vs. $328 million expected.
  • Management significantly raised Q3 guidance, projecting revenue of $410 million (vs. $325 million consensus) and EPS of $1.05 (vs. $0.61 consensus).
  • The stock has gained 70% year-to-date and continues to demonstrate strong operational momentum in the analog semiconductor space.

Takeaways

  • SMTC fundamentals are accelerating significantly; pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities given the massive guidance upgrade.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • TSLA has shown technical resilience, holding support above its recent low of $337.50 to $350.
  • The 50-day moving average near $365 served as initial resistance, with the broader technical target sitting at $400 to $415.
  • A consolidation period between $337 and $350 would create a constructive base for the next push higher.

Takeaways

  • Look to accumulate shares on pullbacks near $337.50, targeting a secondary rally toward $400 to $415.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • META closed around $570, supported by strong bullish options flow (including institutional selling of $5 million in $567.50 put options).
  • The stock faces immediate resistance at its 20-day moving average; a clean break above $575 targets the 50-day moving average near $600.

Takeaways

  • Bullish option flows support an upward bias. Look for momentum entries above $575 with a price target of $600.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • HOOD gained 7% to break above $112, benefiting directly from cryptocurrency market volume and retail trading momentum.
  • The stock is reaching near-term resistance around $122 to $125, with ideal pullback support sitting between $107 and $108.69.

Takeaways

  • Avoid chasing near the $122 resistance mark. Allow the stock to consolidate sideways above $107 before adding new long exposure for a Q4 breakout.

Uber Technologies (UBER)

  • UBER closed above its key $80.00 pivot level, showing strong technical accumulation and pushing toward $81.00+ in extended trading.
  • The stock remains in a tight upward channel with a defined resistance target between $85 and $90.

Takeaways

  • Maintain long positions while UBER holds above the $80 breakout level, targeting a move toward $85 to $90.
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twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ jason - https://x.com/PaperGainsInc jason webinar - https://event.webinarjam.com/wwqn3/register/mmrp7h7q?webinar_id=27 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - Earnings and Market Close 34:26 - NVDA TA 40:23 - BTC TA 44:58 - ETH TA 48:20 - SPY TA 56:04 - MU TA 59:25 - AVGO TA 1:03:49 - NBIS TA 1:05:47 - RKLB TA 1:09:27 - META TA 1:11:02 - HOOD TA 1:14:50 - IREN TA 1:16:55 - CRWV TA 1:22:53 - AMD TA 1:25:40 - BE TA 1:28:10 - ZETA TA 1:30:18 - PLTR TA 1:35:20 - MSFT TA 1:38:20 - AMZN TA 1:40:01 - GOOGL TA 1:46:35 - MRVL TA 1:54:07 - UBER TA 2:05:05 - Rapid Fire
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!