AMD EARNINGS, MARKETS TANK | MARKET CLOSE
AMD EARNINGS, MARKETS TANK | MARKET CLOSE
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider rotating into the Oil & Energy sector, as names like Schlumberger (SLB) and the Oil Services ETF (OIH) are showing strong bullish technical patterns. For long-term investors, Microsoft (MSFT) is considered a quality company to accumulate on dips, with a key buy zone identified between $375 and $415. Speculative traders are watching Robinhood (HOOD) at its critical $85 support level for a potential high-risk bounce play ahead of its earnings report. Ethereum (ETH) appears technically weak after losing key support, with analysts targeting a further decline toward the $1,800 - $1,850 level. While patience is advised for NVIDIA (NVDA), a significant pullback to the $150 area would present a logical entry point for a long-term position.

Detailed Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD reported earnings after the bell, which the host described as a "double beat."
    • EPS Beat: Beat expectations by 16% ($1.53 vs $1.32 expected). EPS is up 40% year-over-year.
    • Revenue Beat: Beat expectations by 6% ($10.27B vs $9.62B expected). Revenue is up 34% year-over-year.
    • Guidance: Guided for Q1 revenue of $9.8 billion, which was also a beat against the Street's expectation of $9.39 billion.
  • Despite the strong results, the stock sold off aggressively, down 5-7% after hours.
  • The negative reaction was attributed to the outlook "disappointing investors seeking a bigger AI payoff," according to a Bloomberg headline. The 16% EPS beat was apparently "not enough for the street."
  • Some of the beat was attributed to one-time items related to China, including $400 million in Q4 sales from the MI308 AI chip designed for the Chinese market. Guidance for that chip in Q1 is only $100 million, which may have contributed to the sell-off.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment is negative despite strong numbers. The market had very high expectations for AMD's AI growth, and even a significant beat on earnings and revenue wasn't enough. This is a "sell the news" event.
  • Technical View: The stock is pulling back to a key technical level, its prior all-time high around $227.
    • Bull Case: This could be a "breakout retest," where the stock finds support at its old resistance level before moving higher.
    • Bear Case: The chart shows a potential "double top" pattern. A full breakdown from this pattern could target a price around $185.
  • Key Level to Watch: $227. How the stock behaves around this price in the coming days will be critical for its short-term direction.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was down about 3% on the day, moving down in sympathy with the broader market and then with AMD's post-earnings drop.
  • The host mentioned buying a very small "toe dip" position in the morning.
  • CEO Jensen Huang was on a call where he addressed the OpenAI investment rumors. He stated there was "no controversy" and that NVIDIA would invest in OpenAI's next round. The podcast host felt the language was a bit evasive and that "something funky" might be going on behind the scenes.
  • The stock is seen as a leader for the semiconductor space. A 16% beat from AMD wasn't enough for the market, raising the question of what kind of beat NVIDIA will need to deliver.

Takeaways

  • Technical View: The stock is in a consolidation range and the chart suggests investors should "wait and just chill for a bit."
    • Resistance: There appears to be a "beast of a technical spot" with a massive block of selling orders around $189-$190.
    • Support: If the current support doesn't hold, a pullback to $165 is possible. Below that, the next major support level is around $150-$152.
  • Strategy: The analyst suggests this is a market for selling premium (options) rather than making aggressive directional bets. For long-term investors, a pullback to the $150 area would be a technically logical place to get interested.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock continued its sharp decline, falling another 4% after dropping 10% the previous day.
  • The host mentioned buying a small position in the morning.
  • The analyst sees the market potentially re-valuing Robinhood as a brokerage instead of a high-growth tech company, which could put more pressure on the stock.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment is very bearish, but a key level is being tested. The stock is in a clear near-term downtrend.
  • Technical View: The stock is testing a critical support level around $85, which was its approximate all-time high from its IPO.
    • Key Support: $85. This is a "price of interest." The analyst started buying small amounts ("nibbling") around $91 and $85.
    • Downside Risk: If $85 is lost, there is a "pretty high probability" of the stock falling to the low $70s.
    • Resistance: Any bounce will likely face significant resistance at $110. A move to this level would still be considered a "counter-trend bounce."
  • Catalyst: Earnings are coming up in less than a week. The analyst believes the sharp sell-off creates a "pretty good setup for earnings," as shorts may look to cover their positions.

PayPal (PYPL)

  • The stock experienced a massive drop of about 20% following its earnings report.
  • The company missed expectations on revenue and earnings, and also announced a CEO change. The CEO was reportedly "ousted" for failing to meet internal metrics.
  • The stock is now trading at lows not seen since 2017, approaching its IPO price.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment is extremely bearish. The combination of a bad earnings report and a leadership crisis has crushed investor confidence.
  • Fundamental View: The host believes the stock "probably deserved to get hit," although a 20% drop might be excessive. The CEO's failure to turn the company around is a major red flag.
  • Actionable Insight: This is a "falling knife." While the drop is severe, the fundamental story is broken, making it very risky to buy the dip without signs of a turnaround.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • The crypto market was described as having been "decimated."
  • Bitcoin (BTC): Broke below $74,000 and briefly hit a low of $72,900 before bouncing back towards $76,000.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Hit a low of $2,110 before recovering to almost $2,300.

Takeaways

  • Bitcoin (BTC) Technicals:
    • Support: The first primary support level is just under $70,000.
    • Resistance: If BTC can get back above $78,500, the next target would be $87,500.
  • Ethereum (ETH) Technicals:
    • Sentiment is bearish. The analyst believes ETH is headed lower after losing support at $2,600.
    • Downside Target: The next major support area and expected target is around $1,800 - $1,850. A move below $2,000 seems very likely, especially if the broader market continues to fall.

Software / SaaS Sector (Theme)

  • The entire Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sector experienced a "carnage" day with heavy, widespread selling.
  • Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) were both down 7%.
  • Shopify (SHOP) was down 10%.
  • Adobe (ADBE) was trading at lows not seen since the 2022 bear market bottom.
  • Intuit (INTU) was down 10% for no apparent reason.
  • The selling pressure is being attributed to a market narrative that new AI tools, like "ClaudeBot," will commoditize existing software, making developers and existing platforms obsolete. The host finds this narrative "aggressive" and "overdone."

Takeaways

  • Sentiment is extremely negative. The market is indiscriminately selling software stocks on fears of AI disruption, regardless of individual company fundamentals.
  • Technical View (Salesforce): The chart is a "no touch zone" unless it gets back over $220. The analyst tried to buy a bounce and immediately sold it for a loss because the bounce was so weak. The next major support level could be as low as $150.
  • Technical View (Shopify): The chart has formed a "head and shoulders" breakdown pattern. This is a very bearish technical formation that has a downside target of $90 - $100. Buying now would be a "counter-trend" move.
  • Actionable Insight: This sector is exhibiting "falling knife" behavior. While the sell-off may be irrational, trying to time the bottom is very risky. The technicals suggest more downside is possible before a durable bottom is found.

Oil & Energy Sector (Theme)

  • In contrast to the tech sector, the analyst highlighted several oil and energy stocks that have very strong and bullish-looking charts.
  • This is seen as part of a rotation from growth stocks into value and defensive sectors.
  • Schlumberger (SLB): Described as having a "better chart than Meta... Tesla... Nvidia." It's in a clear reversal and uptrend.
  • Oil Services ETF (OIH): The ETF that tracks the sector is starting to "break out big time" if it can get over $360.
  • Occidental (OXY): The stock has been beaten down but is now showing a constructive setup for a bullish reversal. The analyst noted that if the setup plays out, it could be a "generational buy."

Takeaways

  • Sentiment is bullish. This sector is showing significant technical strength and is benefiting from a market rotation into value.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors looking for opportunities outside of the struggling tech sector should look at oil and energy. Names like SLB, HAL, and OXY, along with the OIH ETF, are showing bullish reversals and strong uptrends. This could be a place to find positive returns while the tech sector is correcting.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Rocket Lab (RKLB): Was up 10% on a day when most growth stocks were getting hit. The host found this confusing but attributed it to momentum in space-related stocks ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO. The technical analyst called it a "counter-trend bounce" in a downtrend.
  • Palantir (PLTR): Was up 7% on what the host called "some of the best earnings that they've ever put up." However, the technical analyst warned it's still a "counter-trend bounce" within a larger downtrend and needs to break $165.74 with conviction to turn bullish.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Reported a massive earnings beat ($12.7B revenue vs $10.2B expected). The stock jumped 10% after hours but faded significantly, highlighting the tough market environment.
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH): Beat on earnings and saw its stock surge over 18% after hours. The host was intrigued by their entry into the commercial solar market, speculating it could be a pivot towards powering data centers.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): The host and the technical analyst both bought shares during the day's dip. The analyst identified a long-term buy zone between $375 - $415, calling it a "good company at a good price."
  • Walmart (WMT): Hit an all-time high and a $1.02 trillion market cap. This was highlighted as a sign of the market's rotation into defensive, value-oriented stocks.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ reach out - jess@akcomms.com insta - https://www.instagram.com/amitkukreja227 00:00 - Headlines 15:00 - AMD Earnings 54:50 - SPY TA 1:01:00 - HOOD TA 1:10:00 - BTC ETH TA 1:17:15 - PLTR TA 1:24:00 - AMD TA 1:27:14 - NVDA TA 1:35:00 - AMZN TA 1:38:30 - GOOGL TA 1:43:18 - TSLA TA 1:48:00 - MSFT TA 1:55:00 - SOFI TA 1:59:20 - NBIS TA 2:00:01 - NFLX TA 2:02:00 - AVGO TA 2:05:00 - MU TA 2:08:11 - SHOP TA 2:12:20 - ORCL TA 2:14:00 - CRWV TA 2:17:30 - ZETA TA 2:19:00 - RKLB TA 2:23:00 - CRM TA 2:25:40 - RBRK TA 2:27:38 - Jensen Live 2:46:00 - Rapid Fire
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!