AMD AND SPACEX DOWN 9%, SHOPIFY, LILLY, DISNEY EARNINGS, DO WE GET AN IRAN DEAL SOON? | MARKET OPEN
AMD AND SPACEX DOWN 9%, SHOPIFY, LILLY, DISNEY EARNINGS, DO WE GET AN IRAN DEAL SOON? | MARKET OPEN
21 hours agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 53 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on the recent 7% pullback in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to buy a key AI beneficiary, backed by analyst price targets of $635 to $700.

Exercise extreme caution with SpaceX and wait for the impending $116 billion share unlock to clear before considering a position, despite its $47.5 billion backlog and $800 target by Raymond James.

Accumulate shares of Shopify (SHOP) as a core e-commerce holding following its 34% revenue acceleration and a fresh $100 million stake from Thrive Capital.

Exploit the artificial market dislocation in Zeta Global (ZETA) caused by brokerage reporting errors to buy the dip, with analysts targeting $27 to $30.

Add Eli Lilly (LLY) as a stable, long-term healthcare holding to capitalize on structural pharmaceutical demand, supported by a massive $23 billion quarterly revenue beat.

Detailed Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • AMD reported a strong quarter with earnings per share (EPS) up 240% and revenue up 50%, alongside $3.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $1.6 billion in free cash flow.
  • CEO Lisa Su emphasized that the AI ecosystem is growing, stating that data center AI growth should be well over 100% and will increase quarter by quarter.
  • Analysts have shown strong support, with Stifel upgrading the stock to $635 and others setting targets around $700.
  • Despite strong fundamentals, the stock traded down about 7% due to aggressive valuation concerns and a significant increase in projected capital expenditures (CapEx) from $250 million to nearly $800 million.
  • The company faces stiff valuation comparisons against market leaders like NVIDIA, which generates substantially larger free cash flow.

Takeaways

  • Long-term investors should focus on the underlying business growth rather than daily intraday volatility, as AMD remains a key beneficiary of secular AI tailwinds.
  • Monitor execution on data center and CPU/GPU compute deployments, particularly the rollout of the Helios rack system and Venice platform.

SpaceX

  • SpaceX reported 92% year-over-year revenue growth, space revenue up 29%, adjusted EBITDA up 191%, and a backlog of $47.5 billion, but reported an EPS loss of nine cents per share.
  • Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will build exclusively on NVIDIA hardware, utilizing the Vera architecture for its AI compute needs and future "TerraFab" development.
  • Significant near-term selling pressure is expected as $116 billion worth of stock (approximately 912 million employee and early investor shares) becomes eligible to trade, representing a 43% increase over IPO shares.
  • Raymond James maintains a 12-month price target of $800, while critics argue the valuation is overly aggressive given the massive potential dilution and long timelines required to reach projected multi-trillion dollar revenues.

Takeaways

  • Exercise extreme caution regarding valuation and the massive impending share unlock, which creates heightened downside risk despite strong operational backlog and strategic AI partnerships.

Shopify (SHOP)

  • Shopify delivered an exceptional quarter with revenue accelerating 34% year-over-year (its fastest pace in five years) and gross merchandising volume (GMV) reaching $115 billion (up from $87 billion a year ago).
  • Operating income increased 68% year-over-year, and gross profits hit $1.7 billion, dispelling market fears that AI agents would commoditize software platforms and prove detrimental to e-commerce infrastructure.
  • The stock surged approximately 20% in response to the beat, supported by institutional interest such as a $100 million stake taken by Thrive Capital.

Takeaways

  • Shopify demonstrates that well-managed, founder-led SaaS platforms can successfully leverage AI as a tailwind rather than a headwind.
  • Consider Shopify as a core holding for long-term e-commerce exposure, recognizing its status as the de facto backend architecture for online merchants.

Zeta Global (ZETA)

  • Zeta reported strong fundamental growth with revenue up 44% year-over-year, alongside adjusted EBITDA and GAAP profitability.
  • The stock experienced artificial downward pressure due to brokerage platforms (including Robinhood) misreporting earnings data and showing an incorrect EPS miss rather than a beat, which triggered automated algorithmic selling.
  • Analysts have responded with bullish upgrades, including KeyBanc upgrading its price target to $27 alongside several $30 targets.
  • Management faces accountability for ensuring brokerages accurately reflect reporting data, but the underlying business fundamentals remain robust.

Takeaways

  • Market dislocations caused by clerical or reporting errors on minor brokerages can present aggressive short-term buying or dip-buying opportunities for fundamentally sound growth companies.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Eli Lilly reported quarterly revenue of $23 billion (a $3 billion beat, up 50% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $8.38 (up 33% year-over-year), driven by surging demand for its class-leading drug portfolio.
  • CEO highlights included strong clinical data for the next-generation weight-loss medicine Reditrude and expanding manufacturing capacity.
  • As a trillion-dollar market cap company, it provides stability and steady growth rather than explosive short-term alpha.

Takeaways

  • Eli Lilly serves as a stable "sleep-well-at-night" healthcare holding, benefiting from structural tailwinds in pharmaceutical development and drug discovery enhanced by AI technologies.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  • Palantir has experienced immense upward momentum, with short sellers recently losing $3 billion on paper.
  • Potential international catalysts include discussions with Japan regarding the potential integration of Palantir's Maven smart system to modernize military command and control infrastructure.

Takeaways

  • Monitor resistance levels around $160-$170; while the company's growth narrative is strong, investors should be mindful of premium valuations following sharp vertical rallies.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ free news terminal - https://caktusjxck.com/ 00:00 - Intro 05:00 - AMD and SpaceX 11:00 - RKLB 14:00 - Earnings 23:00 - Trump Iran 29:00 - Lisa Su 44:00 - Market Open 1:30:00 - Fed Speak 2:10:00 - Leo 2:29:00 - UBER Ceo
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!