AMAZON INVESTING 10B IN OPENAI, TESLA TRIES FOR ALL TIME HIGHS, NEW ROBINHOOD PRODUCTS | MARKET OPEN
AMAZON INVESTING 10B IN OPENAI, TESLA TRIES FOR ALL TIME HIGHS, NEW ROBINHOOD PRODUCTS | MARKET OPEN
143 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 15 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider the current dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) as a potential buying opportunity, as analysts believe competition fears are overblown and the stock is in an accumulation zone. The recent sell-off in Oracle (ORCL) below $180 may present a contrarian buying opportunity for investors who believe its data center financing concerns are temporary. For patient investors, Grab (GRAB) offers a long-term opportunity based on a potential merger with its main competitor, with a recent entry point noted around $4.90. Robinhood (HOOD) is a potential growth play due to its new AI tools and expansion of prediction markets, with one analyst initiating a $155 price target. Short-term traders are watching Tesla (TSLA) for a potential breakout above $490 as it attempts to reach the $500 milestone.

Detailed Analysis

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The stock was testing its all-time highs, with the host noting the previous high was $488.54. During the podcast, it touched $493.
  • There is speculation about whether TSLA can reach the psychological milestone of $500 per share before the end of the year.
  • The stock showed significant volatility during the session, initially rallying to $493, then falling to $486, and then staging a V-shaped recovery back towards its highs. This indicates strong momentum and buyer interest on dips.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Momentum: Tesla is showing strong upward momentum and is a key focus for traders as it attempts to break into new all-time high territory.
  • Key Level to Watch: The $490 level is critical. A sustained close above this could signal a continuation of the rally towards $500.
  • Volatility: Expect significant price swings. The stock's rapid movements suggest it's being heavily traded on short-term news and technical breakouts.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon is reportedly in talks to invest $10 billion in OpenAI, which would value the AI company at over $500 billion.
  • A key part of the deal is that OpenAI plans to use Amazon's custom Tranium AI chips.
  • Bullish Case: This deal is seen as a major positive for Amazon's cloud division, AWS. It will drive demand for AWS compute power and create a new revenue stream from selling the Tranium chips.
  • Bearish Case: Some critics point to this as "circular financing," where Amazon gives money to OpenAI, which then uses that money to buy Amazon's products.
  • Stock Performance: The host notes that despite the positive news, the stock's reaction was muted. He mentions that AMZN has been "dead money" for many investors this year, but he remains confident in the long-term fundamentals.

Takeaways

  • Long-Term AI Play: This investment solidifies Amazon's position in the AI arms race, making it a critical partner for OpenAI and boosting its custom chip business.
  • Potential for AWS Growth: The deal is a direct catalyst for Amazon's most profitable segment, AWS, which could help accelerate its growth.
  • Patience Required: The market isn't immediately rewarding Amazon for this move. This may be a long-term thesis that requires patience, as the stock has underperformed other tech giants recently.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was down on the day, with the market perceiving the Amazon/OpenAI deal to use Tranium chips as a negative for NVIDIA, signaling increased competition.
  • Another factor contributing to the decline was the IPO of a Chinese chip company, MetaX, which surged 700%. The market may see this as a future competitor, even though NVIDIA is restricted from selling its advanced chips in China.
  • Bullish Counter-Argument: The host and guest analyst Dan Ives believe these fears are overblown. They argue the AI chip market is enormous, and NVIDIA is expected to maintain its dominance (around 80% market share) due to its powerful CUDA software ecosystem, which creates a strong moat.
  • The stock was noted to be trading in its tightest range in over a year, which the host suggests could be an accumulation zone for investors.
  • At 24 times forward earnings, the stock is considered relatively "cheap" given its growth prospects.

Takeaways

  • Perception vs. Reality: The market is selling NVIDIA on headlines about competition, but the company's long-term competitive advantages, particularly its CUDA software, remain intact.
  • Potential Buying Opportunity: The dip in price combined with the stock trading in a tight "accumulation" range could present a buying opportunity for long-term believers in the AI thesis.
  • Key Risk: The primary risk is the narrative of rising competition from custom chips made by giants like Amazon and Google, which is currently weighing on the stock.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • The stock was down significantly (over 4%) following a report that private equity firm Blue Owl Capital backed out of financing a $10 billion data center for Oracle.
  • Bearish Interpretation: The market is interpreting this as a sign of weakness, suggesting that Blue Owl may have concerns about Oracle's debt or the viability of the project.
  • Bullish Interpretation: Oracle's management claims they chose a different partner, Blackstone, which has stepped in to provide the financing. It's also possible Blue Owl is simply over-leveraged from other large deals (like with Meta) and is reducing its exposure, rather than specifically rejecting Oracle.
  • Analyst Dan Ives called the stock a "compelling name to own" at these levels, believing the data center will be built regardless of the financing partner.

Takeaways

  • Headline Risk: Oracle is currently facing negative sentiment due to this financing news, causing the stock to drop below the key $180 support level.
  • Contrarian Opportunity?: If you believe the bullish interpretation (that this is a non-issue and Blackstone's involvement secures the project), the current sell-off could be a contrarian buying opportunity.
  • Monitor the Narrative: The key question is why Blue Owl backed out. If more negative details emerge about Oracle's creditworthiness, the stock could see further downside.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock was up following a product event where the company announced major updates.
  • Prediction Markets: Robinhood is doubling down on this controversial but fast-growing product. They are adding new features and a better user interface, which analysts believe could add hundreds of millions (and potentially billions) in future revenue.
  • Cortex AI: The company introduced its new AI tool that acts as a personalized financial assistant for users' portfolios, a feature the host was very bullish on.
  • An analyst from Truist initiated coverage with a $155 price target, citing excitement over the growth of prediction markets.

Takeaways

  • Growth Catalysts: The expansion of prediction markets and the introduction of AI tools are significant new growth drivers for the company, moving it beyond just stock and crypto trading.
  • "Gambling" Perception Risk: The heavy focus on prediction markets is blurring the line between trading and gambling for some, which could attract negative regulatory or media attention.
  • Volatility Remains: While the new products are promising, the stock's price is still heavily tied to the volatile crypto markets and overall market sentiment.

Grab (GRAB)

  • A major positive development occurred: the CEO of Grab's main competitor, GoToGroup, was voted out by investors. The new CEO is reportedly in favor of a merger with Grab.
  • This move was heavily pushed by SoftBank, a major investor in both companies, who wants to end the costly competition between them.
  • Despite this significant news, the stock price remained flat, frustrating the host. He bought more shares on the dip to $4.90.
  • The host emphasized that this is a long-term investment thesis. The stock's failure to react to positive news is a source of frustration, but he believes the fundamental story is playing out.

Takeaways

  • Merger Catalyst: The path to a merger with its biggest competitor is now much clearer. If a merger occurs, it would be a massive positive for Grab, as it would dominate the region and accelerate profitability.
  • "Dead Money" Risk: The market is currently ignoring the positive fundamental developments. Investors need to be prepared for the stock to potentially underperform in the short term, even as the business improves.
  • Long-Term Thesis: This is an investment for patient investors who believe in the long-term merger thesis and are willing to endure short-term price stagnation.

Investment Themes & Other Opportunities

AI & Data Centers

  • Hut 8 Mining (HUT): This former Bitcoin miner has pivoted to AI. Its stock was up 18% after securing a $7 billion lease from Google to build out an AI data center, reportedly to serve AI company Anthropic. This shows that even smaller players are benefiting from the massive demand for AI infrastructure.
  • Broadcom (AVGO): The stock was down significantly, caught in the broader semiconductor sell-off. The host noted it had fallen from being up 80% year-to-date to only 43%, representing a major correction.
  • Takeaway: The demand for AI data centers is a powerful, ongoing theme. While major players like NVIDIA and Oracle are facing short-term headwinds, smaller companies like Hut 8 are securing massive deals, indicating the breadth of the investment boom.

Hedging Strategy

  • For investors sitting on large gains in volatile, high-beta stocks, the host discussed a strategy to protect profits without selling shares and triggering taxes.
  • The Strategy: Sell a deep in-the-money (ITM) covered call with a high delta (0.75-0.80).
  • Example: On a $120 stock, you could sell a $100 strike call and collect $40 in premium. This protects your downside all the way to $80 ($120 - $40), while capping your upside at an effective sale price of $140 ($100 strike + $40 premium).
  • Takeaway: This is an advanced options strategy for risk management. It's suitable for investors who want to lock in gains and reduce volatility but requires understanding the risks, namely that you could miss out on further upside if the stock continues to rally strongly.

Netflix (NFLX)

  • The stock was up over 3% on news that it is the clear frontrunner to acquire Warner Brothers (WBD) for $82 billion.
  • The company also announced a deal to bring FIFA games to its gaming platform.
  • Takeaway: Netflix is aggressively expanding its content library and services. The acquisition of Warner Brothers would give it a massive trove of valuable intellectual property (like HBO and Harry Potter), solidifying its dominance in the streaming wars. The deal could face a lengthy 12-18 month regulatory review, which may act as an overhang on the stock.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ nyc feb meetup: https://shorturl.at/wk0pN 00:00 - Intro 09:20 - Amazon OpenAI 15:55 - HOOD Event 26:50 - Netflix 41:00 - Waller Speaks 44:00 - Market Open 1:37:50 - Vlad Live
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!